This fits full square with my view that we live in the sixth and final stage of nations decline as described by Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb in his 1975 essay 'The Fate of Empires'
The final stage he called 'The Age of Decadence' typified by economic decline, frivolity, huge increases in welfare and immigration and basically all that you see around you and overseen by abysmal low grade leadership.
Things WILL get worse before they get better and we need a mass movement in support of these reforms to prevent our politicians ever again ruining our country.
our politicians should be our servants and not our masters.
Well that is a pessimistic view which history, as Glubb explained, doesn't support. Yes things get worse but then a rebuilding can take place - out of the ashes the phoenix rises etc!
I agree but always hope under new leadership our decline can be reversed before we reach rock bottom.
However at 75, later this month, I may not see the trun around but I will push THA until I die because without its six demands enacted our governance and democracy will never return to a situation where our politicians become our servants instead of being our masters.
There is time to correct things before the indigenous Brits become a minority but it will require guts and determination currently in very short supply with our politicians.
But haven't we been here before? Every socialist government taxes itself out of existence. I remember well listening to Harold Wilson, when he devalued the pound, saying it wouldn't affect the pound in our pocket.
Maybe you are right in that this time it is far worse. I'm just not sure.
Actually, it's worse than Communist China - at least they know how to build things. We've been paying them for the last 30 years to make stuff that we could make stuff cheaper than we could have made, so destroying our own industry. And now we don't have steel or cement.
And then importing cheap labour from around the World, except they don't want to work once they are here and getting free stuff themselves. The worse is yet to come.
Everything stems from long before 2008... Housing should have dropped much much further from it's bubble but Brown did everything to avoid it and in the process max the countries credit card in every way and put us on the trajectory we now find ourselves.
The inevitable was never allowed to happen, with the result a leveraged pressure cooker and an economy so unhealthy that Cuba is probably the best analogy I've heard to date.. Fiddling at the edges while Rome burns.
There will be trouble ahead. Many feel it in our bones alright.
It's a ‘great reset’ all right, just not the one they were hoping for. All those fleeing the sinking ship with their transportable skills shouldn't be too comfortable; recent history shows that when the chips are down, ancient prejudices bubble to the surface. When the SHTF, the closer to kith & kin the better.
I’ve said for years that we are a poor country pretending to be rich. What is our economy actually built on? Add to that politicians’ promises that every generation will do better than the one before, it’s a joke. I’m glad that the curtain has been pulled aside at last, but very nervous about what comes next.
The big problem is the English middle class, especially the academics and teachers. They live in an alternate reality. They fought the class war into a Pyrrhic victory in which the country was lost.
You say OBR data shows UK welfare spending now at £333bn…
You are encouraging people to think that “welfare” are uses all the Income Tax receipts, which is just nonsense, because the £333bn figure includes old age pensions.
Public spending on benefits is far too high for sure, especially sick benefit. But if you include old age pensions, which are mostly paid for by the people who receive them, and use the meaningless American term “welfare”, then you are misleading your readers. If you are going to use statistics, why not use the Office for National Statistics, rather than the OBR whose job is forecasting? The numbers you have quoted are in fact a forecast, not data.
There is so much wrong with the UK economy structurally;. and the Fabian Labour disaster is making it worse.
1 Jobs; minimum wage, as you noted is too high, and ensures jobs dont get created or happen overseas.
2. High taxes - up to a 65% marginal rate on the productive due to excessively large govt (50% of GDP) and spending on overly generous welfare for the unproductive and illegal people.
3. Anti business attitude by govt ... Innovators, wealthy folks, and landlords, etc are all exiting their sectors and putting their talents and money elsewhere.
4 Demographics. Ageing means a quarter of the population is working to pay for everyone else. And jts getting worse...
There are some real issues in this argument, but it overreaches in important ways.
The UK has experienced weak productivity growth, prolonged wage stagnation, and a heavy reliance on housing as a store of wealth. These are serious structural problems and are widely recognised across mainstream economic analysis.
However, several of the article’s central claims are exaggerated or misleading.
The comparison to Cuba does not withstand scrutiny. While there is some wage compression at the lower end of the UK labour market, the system is not remotely comparable to one in which most workers earn similar incomes regardless of role or skill.
The claim that higher earners have similar disposable income to minimum wage workers is not supported by credible evidence. Regional cost differences do affect living standards, particularly between London and other areas, but they do not erase large differences in income.
The characterisation of the UK as a ‘Ponzi economy’ is rhetorical rather than analytical. Housing has clearly played an outsized role in wealth accumulation, but this reflects a combination of policy choices, credit conditions, and planning constraints. It does not mean the entire economic system is fundamentally fraudulent or on the brink of collapse.
On geopolitics, there is a real conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and it has contributed to higher energy prices. It is also reasonable to argue that the war was discretionary, given the lack of clear public evidence of an imminent threat. However, describing the situation as ‘trashing half the world’s energy infrastructure’ is a significant exaggeration. The evidence points to disruption, especially around key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, rather than widespread destruction of global energy systems.
Finally, the claim that the UK faces an imminent economic collapse is not supported by the available evidence. The country does face long-term constraints, including demographic pressures, low productivity growth, and fiscal trade-offs. But these are slow-moving structural challenges, not signs of an immediate systemic breakdown.
Taken together, the piece mixes valid observations with overstatement and selective framing. It identifies genuine economic pressures, but presents them in a way that exaggerates their scale, compresses timelines, and overstates the certainty of negative outcomes.
Yes, but why the completely unfounded and irrelevant reference to Cuba? If anything these are the dying days of capitalism, not socialism. Yes we need to eviscerate the increasingly absurd welfare state including the NHS, and the truly bizarre elite encouragement and facilitation of uncontrolled immigration. But in place we need proper government led investment in industry, infrastructure and skills, and renewed recognition and respect for traditional social values. Don't confuse Socialism with Liberalism.
This echoes what the American media is saying about the UK. The remedy is simple: drill baby drill, cut government spending and most importantly, cut taxes. This will make the UK an economic powerhouse.
> Of course, none of this is new. I could have written this article a decade ago (and if I sift through my old blog, I probably did)
You are going to write this article again in 10 years. The current Orange Man's "war" against Iran will become as forgettable as the one he waged against them a year ago which was ailed as nothing short of cataclysmic at the time, and that by now anyone barely remember.
Remember that 'nothing ever happens' is usually the safest prediction you can make, unless you need to grift
Has it occurred to you that the destruction of the UK might be deliberate?
Countries with large populations that are wealthy have vibrant domestic economies (China, USA). We are the victims of Internationalists who see salvation in foreign trade (even at a deficit).
This fits full square with my view that we live in the sixth and final stage of nations decline as described by Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb in his 1975 essay 'The Fate of Empires'
The final stage he called 'The Age of Decadence' typified by economic decline, frivolity, huge increases in welfare and immigration and basically all that you see around you and overseen by abysmal low grade leadership.
Things WILL get worse before they get better and we need a mass movement in support of these reforms to prevent our politicians ever again ruining our country.
our politicians should be our servants and not our masters.
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
I rather suspect that things will get worse, before they get worse.
I don't really see a feasible path to a general betterment of society.
Well that is a pessimistic view which history, as Glubb explained, doesn't support. Yes things get worse but then a rebuilding can take place - out of the ashes the phoenix rises etc!
To clarify, I don't see a feasible path to rhe general betterment of society that doesn't involve ashes. And blood.
Phoenixes may rise and things may get better after the civil war. Or maybe Britain will be under a caliphate. The muslims would like that I suppose.
Whatever the case, hard times are coming. Very hard times.
I agree but always hope under new leadership our decline can be reversed before we reach rock bottom.
However at 75, later this month, I may not see the trun around but I will push THA until I die because without its six demands enacted our governance and democracy will never return to a situation where our politicians become our servants instead of being our masters.
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
Not if the original population has gone - https://therenwhere.substack.com/p/the-destruction-of-britain . Whatever replaces the current order on this island is unlikely to be British.
There is time to correct things before the indigenous Brits become a minority but it will require guts and determination currently in very short supply with our politicians.
But haven't we been here before? Every socialist government taxes itself out of existence. I remember well listening to Harold Wilson, when he devalued the pound, saying it wouldn't affect the pound in our pocket.
Maybe you are right in that this time it is far worse. I'm just not sure.
Actually, it's worse than Communist China - at least they know how to build things. We've been paying them for the last 30 years to make stuff that we could make stuff cheaper than we could have made, so destroying our own industry. And now we don't have steel or cement.
And then importing cheap labour from around the World, except they don't want to work once they are here and getting free stuff themselves. The worse is yet to come.
The article said “communist Cuba” not “communist China”.
Everything stems from long before 2008... Housing should have dropped much much further from it's bubble but Brown did everything to avoid it and in the process max the countries credit card in every way and put us on the trajectory we now find ourselves.
The inevitable was never allowed to happen, with the result a leveraged pressure cooker and an economy so unhealthy that Cuba is probably the best analogy I've heard to date.. Fiddling at the edges while Rome burns.
There will be trouble ahead. Many feel it in our bones alright.
It's a ‘great reset’ all right, just not the one they were hoping for. All those fleeing the sinking ship with their transportable skills shouldn't be too comfortable; recent history shows that when the chips are down, ancient prejudices bubble to the surface. When the SHTF, the closer to kith & kin the better.
I’ve said for years that we are a poor country pretending to be rich. What is our economy actually built on? Add to that politicians’ promises that every generation will do better than the one before, it’s a joke. I’m glad that the curtain has been pulled aside at last, but very nervous about what comes next.
The big problem is the English middle class, especially the academics and teachers. They live in an alternate reality. They fought the class war into a Pyrrhic victory in which the country was lost.
See https://therenwhere.substack.com/p/why-did-the-english-self-destruct
You forget the role of banks in all this.
The aim of banks is to ensure the population always relies on borrowing.
It goes back to when royalty borrowed from banks to pay for armies and decadence.
Repayment was from taxes on the well off and poor non royals.
Keeping the population in debt helped to control them and still does.
After royalty, countries governments took up the cudgel.
Banks are aiming for total control, which after the economy introduces digital (only) money with no cash alternative takes over.
Even today, if you have money in the bank it is their money.
They grant you the option of taking money out, but increasingly, if they don’t like what you spend it on, stop you withdrawing it.
The aim is serfdom.
That sounds extreme, because it is extreme.
As previously stated, the aim is - you own nothing depending on banks for your existence.
Well golly, that makes Allister Heath’s columns look like Richard Curtis fanfic by comparison…
You say OBR data shows UK welfare spending now at £333bn…
You are encouraging people to think that “welfare” are uses all the Income Tax receipts, which is just nonsense, because the £333bn figure includes old age pensions.
Public spending on benefits is far too high for sure, especially sick benefit. But if you include old age pensions, which are mostly paid for by the people who receive them, and use the meaningless American term “welfare”, then you are misleading your readers. If you are going to use statistics, why not use the Office for National Statistics, rather than the OBR whose job is forecasting? The numbers you have quoted are in fact a forecast, not data.
Otherwise, I found your article interesting.
The euro communists won didn’t they? But at least the GDR was patriotic. We haven’t even got that anymore.
There is so much wrong with the UK economy structurally;. and the Fabian Labour disaster is making it worse.
1 Jobs; minimum wage, as you noted is too high, and ensures jobs dont get created or happen overseas.
2. High taxes - up to a 65% marginal rate on the productive due to excessively large govt (50% of GDP) and spending on overly generous welfare for the unproductive and illegal people.
3. Anti business attitude by govt ... Innovators, wealthy folks, and landlords, etc are all exiting their sectors and putting their talents and money elsewhere.
4 Demographics. Ageing means a quarter of the population is working to pay for everyone else. And jts getting worse...
https://billywiz66.substack.com/p/britain-has-a-grim-future-even-without?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=jzd8
There are some real issues in this argument, but it overreaches in important ways.
The UK has experienced weak productivity growth, prolonged wage stagnation, and a heavy reliance on housing as a store of wealth. These are serious structural problems and are widely recognised across mainstream economic analysis.
However, several of the article’s central claims are exaggerated or misleading.
The comparison to Cuba does not withstand scrutiny. While there is some wage compression at the lower end of the UK labour market, the system is not remotely comparable to one in which most workers earn similar incomes regardless of role or skill.
The claim that higher earners have similar disposable income to minimum wage workers is not supported by credible evidence. Regional cost differences do affect living standards, particularly between London and other areas, but they do not erase large differences in income.
The characterisation of the UK as a ‘Ponzi economy’ is rhetorical rather than analytical. Housing has clearly played an outsized role in wealth accumulation, but this reflects a combination of policy choices, credit conditions, and planning constraints. It does not mean the entire economic system is fundamentally fraudulent or on the brink of collapse.
On geopolitics, there is a real conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and it has contributed to higher energy prices. It is also reasonable to argue that the war was discretionary, given the lack of clear public evidence of an imminent threat. However, describing the situation as ‘trashing half the world’s energy infrastructure’ is a significant exaggeration. The evidence points to disruption, especially around key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, rather than widespread destruction of global energy systems.
Finally, the claim that the UK faces an imminent economic collapse is not supported by the available evidence. The country does face long-term constraints, including demographic pressures, low productivity growth, and fiscal trade-offs. But these are slow-moving structural challenges, not signs of an immediate systemic breakdown.
Taken together, the piece mixes valid observations with overstatement and selective framing. It identifies genuine economic pressures, but presents them in a way that exaggerates their scale, compresses timelines, and overstates the certainty of negative outcomes.
he's not gona listen lol. this is his own little dystopian Substack fantasy land, just let him have it
You are probably right.
If 14 years of Tories gets you Communist Cuba, we might as well try communism for a bit no
Yes, but why the completely unfounded and irrelevant reference to Cuba? If anything these are the dying days of capitalism, not socialism. Yes we need to eviscerate the increasingly absurd welfare state including the NHS, and the truly bizarre elite encouragement and facilitation of uncontrolled immigration. But in place we need proper government led investment in industry, infrastructure and skills, and renewed recognition and respect for traditional social values. Don't confuse Socialism with Liberalism.
This echoes what the American media is saying about the UK. The remedy is simple: drill baby drill, cut government spending and most importantly, cut taxes. This will make the UK an economic powerhouse.
> Of course, none of this is new. I could have written this article a decade ago (and if I sift through my old blog, I probably did)
You are going to write this article again in 10 years. The current Orange Man's "war" against Iran will become as forgettable as the one he waged against them a year ago which was ailed as nothing short of cataclysmic at the time, and that by now anyone barely remember.
Remember that 'nothing ever happens' is usually the safest prediction you can make, unless you need to grift
Has it occurred to you that the destruction of the UK might be deliberate?
Countries with large populations that are wealthy have vibrant domestic economies (China, USA). We are the victims of Internationalists who see salvation in foreign trade (even at a deficit).
See https://therenwhere.substack.com/p/the-internationalist-adversaries