Reform’s final chapter

The story of the day that can’t pass without comment is Reform’s car crash press conference. For the second time Reform has called a presser in anticipation of an announcement from Farage, only to be left standing with egg on their faces. That left Ben Habib and Ann Widdecombe to fill airtime with awkward waffle. Later on, Tice took to Talk TV to further embarrass himself.

Today, I think, was the beginning of Reform’s final chapter. I’ve seen three polls over the last two days showing Reform shedding support, polling as low as eight per cent. It may now turn out to be electorally insignificant and they don’t have what it takes to turn it around. The decline was already observable in local election results.

The Telegraph still seems to think that Reform could cost the Tories up to twenty eight seats, but I’m not sure they’ve detected the collapse of Reform’s momentum. Today’s press conference won’t have gone unnoticed by pundits and opinion formers. They’re looking like a busted flush. If they drop below eight per cent, they’re as good as finished.

Meanwhile, there’s a growing sense on the right that the best thing that could happen is a total wipeout of the Tories. It would surely be cathartic, but I don’t see it happening. Keir Starmer lack sincerity, credibility and magnetism and there’s virtually nobody on the Labour benches we can take remotely seriously. Labour also has problems of its own, bleeding support to Greens and independents. With a lacklustre showing for Reform, and Tory voters getting cold feet about staying at home, the Tories could still form the main opposition by a comfortable margin.

I would stress, however, that I don’t care either way. Let the chips fall where they may. This simply isn't an important election. It's just the transfer of power from one wing of the uniparty to the other, at the fag end of a dying regime, in a collapsing global order.

Eventually there will be an opportunity to elect something different, at a time when Britain can endure no more hapless mediocrity, but in all probability that won't be the 2029 election either. All we can do is watch and wait for the right moment. Until that day, I'm not going to gratify this charade by pretending my vote is worth a damn.

In fact, my hope of all hopes, is that the turnout collapses. I suspect it will be lower than it has been for some time. But not low enough. They need to understand, somehow, that they are hated.

With the urgency and severity of many of Britain’s problems this should be a consequential, high stakes election, but it isn’t because there is no clear choice. The Tories ditched their voters to become the party of Net Zero and mass immigration, and Labour intends to pick up where Blair left off. Technocracy has frozen voters out of the process.

As such, the real politics comes after the election. Much depends on who is left standing. Reform’s underperformance will kill off any talk of the Tories splitting and the Tory right merging with Reform. There is no cause to merge with an electoral nonentities led by fools.

That leaves the field open for something new, or for the mother of all Tory civil wars. It’s abundantly clear that the factions of the Tory party can no longer coexist, and nobody is queuing round the block for a more centrist Tory party. There is a lot of politics to do before we can even begin to address the problems.