Reform: What comes after Farage?

The still above is form a worthwhile hypothetical discussion about the future of Reform, and one of the reasons it's worth paying close attention to New Culture Forum. It's interesting to note that many of the points I was making before the election (which attracted so much ire) are now accepted points of debate. It seems there's no first mover advantage in politics.

It needs to be reiterated, though, that while there are many good reasons for professionalising and democratising, the point of doing so is to build an organisation that can withstand the departure of the current leader. When Farage washes his hands of a party, it rapidly crumbles into obscurity. It has to transition from cult of personality to a political movement capable of becoming a government.

We are told that the party is taking steps to professionalise and democratise, but they could just be saying that to appease critics. I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not party to any insider gossip so I'll just have to wait and see. I'm not at all convinced. It has to go far beyond mere structural changes.

Ultimately, the party has to decide to be a party in its own right with a life of its own, separate to that of the Tory party. At the moment, there's an ever looming suspicion that Reform will pack up if the Tories throw them a few scraps from the table such as ECHR exit. Reform must have larger ambitions. They need a ten year plan for victory, and make the Tories compete for the right to exist.

That is not to say that Ukip style pressure group/protest politics isn't a valid raison d'etre but it has to be one or the other. The ambiguity is the killer.

If we are to believe Reform is serious then they need to actually achieve something with the small victory they've won, but there's no sign of that happening. Farage only does electioneering. He's good at it. He enjoys it. But he has never been a serious politician, and clearly has no interest in becoming one. He's tired.

As such, there is no direction to what Reform MPs are doing with their time in parliament. Farage treats every parliamentary appearance as an opportunity to produce social media content. The rest are left to their own devices.

It's true that five MPs isn't many, but five MPs working a strategy, making full use of parliamentary research facilities and ministerial questions can set the agenda and make headlines. For that, though, you have to be running your own issue specific campaigns, seeking to embarrass the government over its failures.

We've seen Lee Anderson having a stab at this, but it's amateurish and that's the best he can do. He's got the common touch, but that's his sole merit. Meanwhile Rupert Lowe seems fixated on local trivia, acting more like a local councillor. There's no coordination or driving mission. There's no investigative work going on that I can see. There's no ruthless killer instinct at work.

As Harrison Pitt notes in the video, there's nothing wrong with populist methods, as such, but the absence of substance is Reform's Achilles heel. You don't have to be a political analyst to know that Reform just isn't a serious operation. People have a instinct for political fly-by-nights. Reform can make extensive cosmetic changes, but you can't mask the lack of an intellectual foundation.

That, sadly, is the one thing that simply isn't going to change under Farage. Farage is ultimately a gang leader. His gang, his rules. The necessary changes will not be made until he is retired. As such, Reform's future is contingent on Farage's successor, whoever that might be.

That presents the greatest challenge of all for Reform. Few have the same magnetism and media presence of Farage, nor the novelty value that the media feeds on. This is not something that can be replicated or imitated. You either got it or you don't. And let's face it, nobody else in the Reform parliamentary gang comes close.

What's needed is a man more in tune with the younger voters Reform is hoping to attract. Someone who is as sharp as Farage used to be when Ukip was building in the early days. Someone younger with plenty years ahead of him. Someone who can speak with conviction and precision. Someone who can win arguments. Someone without Brexit baggage. Someone markedly different in temperament to Farage. Someone who recognises that tubthumping populism has limited appeal. Someone critics like me can take seriously.

There's only one name that really rises to the top. Matt Goodwin. If not him, then he is certainly the template. I’ve been less than impressed by Goodwin in the past (in his capacity as a political analyst) but as a speaker in the political realm, his command of immigration is pretty much flawless and he’s matured a great deal. Moreover, nobody better comes to mind.

Ultimately, Reform only has a future if there is a timetable of succession, with an actual leader in mind. I already get the impression that Farage has lost interest and Tice is serving as a caretaker manager. You can't fault Tice's dedication, but he wasn't up to it before and he isn't up to it now. Ultimately, he is responsible for the lack of preparedness for the general election.

Reform has a lot of work ahead if it is to capitalise on its small gains. Having come second in dozens of places, there are plenty of winnable target seats but they're going to need credible candidates with a local connection, building local branches from the ground up. Reform is also going to need a constitution, some foundational values and policy. To stay in the game, though, the party needs a mission and an idea of what their future looks like without Farage.