I recall saying at the time of the Channel 4 sting that we probably wouldn’t see an immediate effect in the polls, but there’s been a flurry of polls over the last few days that all point to a slow puncture for Reform.
Burnham has around a 150 seat majority. In an election, he stands to lose most if not all of that, and may find himself forced into a coalition with the Greens / Lib Dems / Scottish Nationalists. I don't think even Burnham is as stupid as that - and his backbenchers won't thank him when they lose their job. Why would he call an election when he doesn't need to and the outcome will be a lot worse for Labour than it is now?
A smaller majority might be easier to manage. But actually I think that's probably not the case for Burnham, only with that charisma vacuum Starmer. That and Burnham and his mental backbenchers seem more in alignment. So yes maybe he'd be stupid to call an election.
They all seem to like their pay packets in Westminster, where else would they get 150k a year? That's why I think they'll want to delay it. That being said, anything could happen. I've never known a time like this.
I guess it depends how calamitous they think the next 12 months are going to be. Someone suggested Sunak went early because they were about to start releasing prisoners due to overcrowding. I don't quite buy it myself.
1. He could read spreadsheets and knew he would be blamed for economic crash when Bond market would not lend an extra £18 billion a month to the UK.
2. He did not see Trump winning in November 2024. He thought on May 22nd (when he announced election) that it would be Biden and his Cabinet. If it had we would have been at war just before/after November 2024 with Russia. He wanted to quietly get his family out of London/UK.
3. He wanted to announce election in sunshine of early summer (it rained down hard and he did not have the foresight to have an umbrella).
Labour if they go now and postpone the budget can bank the seats from 2019 but that is as good as it gets.
Their polling average is high in 2019 seats but low in 2024 gained seats. Moreover, the average is nowhere near 35%.
The polling average will fall because of the budget (high taxes boldly going where no Chancellor has gone before), interest rates on mortgages and credit cards surging, the Bond market wanting 10% and more to lend the government the money to pay the interest on the debt to The Bond market, inability to pay the welfare and public sector demands, surging unemployment and inflation, and then 'local community tensions', maybe power cuts, terrorist attacks (maybe in schools and hospitals), and maybe an insane attempt to conscript people to fight the EU and Us Democrat party war in eastern Europe/Euroasia.
Argentina or the CCP may pressure The Falklands and Russia pressure The Shetlands if we poke them in the eye.
The CCP and Putin may start negotiating with the SNP, Plaid and Sinn Fein to develop their plans to leave the UK.
Andy Burnham default mode is take the day off.
He will have to go for Trump and Israel and abandon British Jews to keep his foaming at the mouth left wing of the left wing on board. The short term party management will lead to long term loss if Trump finally retaliates.
If Burnham gets to the locals in May, he can expect a thumping. Then his MPs will go rogue as they see their careers coming to an end.
At the same time General Kemi Badenoch who is gearing up for war with Russia can have a poorly attended Birmingham ICC party conference. Then a few days later finish fifth or lower in Holborn losing the deposit again.
The Conservative polling in Westminster by-elections in England is dismal, Far below opinion poll national average.
Her Westminster Party is half Lib Dems and around 19 know that in 2024 The Lib Dems were just behind them. If they can do the dance with Ed Davey, then changing party takes the Lib Dems to 90 seats and the Conservatives below 100.
A humiliating changing of the guard in official Opposition then looms and then the Conservatives at Westminster can be polling 10% with the Lib Dems 15-20% (especially if the Greens blow it).
Conservative voters in 2024 may see the Conservatives at Westminster vote as a wasted vote if the game is stop high tax Labour (or just to stop the boys getting killed in the meatgrinder if we get there).
Farage and Reform can float up to 35% and pick up a few Conservative MPs and lots of councillors.
The next election can again halve the Conservative vote, Reform by default gets 9-12 million, and Labour leaves the stage.
I hope Howard Cox and others finish Restore by leaving and that decent people who were seduced get out of this despicable party.
Even without 72 million, even without MPs who engage with their constituents/the voters, I think Farage/Reform are going to take down at Westminster Labour and Conservative parties as the government and official opposition.
Reform are slowly improving at council level. The Conservatives can rebuild as genuine Conservatives at local level.
We may in any event be on course for an England (not UK) with much less old Empire ambition to be involved with everything everywhere as if a thriving super power. We may fix our potholes, bins, clean our streets, get crime down, secure borders, improve our education system and hospitals, bring common sense into policing and law courts, reduce the size of government, and let communities start to look after themselves.
We may be initially much less prosperous but have freedom of speech and thought restored.
I hope you’re right but there’s an awful lot of things that have to fall into place in your scenario for Reform to get to 35%. I’d settle for 32% right now and 300 seats.
Not only do they have zero intention of stopping the boats but they actively approve of them. The gangs don't exist, the people traffickers all work for the government, unofficially if not officially.
Looks difficult if not impossible in the current environment for Reform to win the next election. However, maybe we’re just one more Islamic terrorist attack from Reform recovering strongly in the polls.
Muslim terror attacks in the UK are either false flags, hoaxes or the actions of drugged-up loners pointed in the right direction and given a push by the security services. Islam is winning both politically and demographically so terrorism is counter-productive. Unless you count intimidating widows into selling their houses cheaply as terrorism!
The uniparty, mandarin bureaucrats, BBC/Sky/etc, big Charity are desperate to stop Reform/Farage because they will be a wrecking ball to their tax payer financed activity and agenda.
They know at Westminster elections Reform will dominate in the seats Labour won in 2024 (over 200 seats).
They fear the economic meltdown (unemployment, inflation, high interest rates, mortgage repossessions, collapse of pay for the public sector, collapse of welfare, NO MONEY LEFT! and increased crime/civil unrest) may destroy the Labour Party if they try to get to 2029.
They fear that Reform will smash the Conservatives in the south and south-east at Westminster level (even if not at local level because of the integrity, diligence and competence which Conservative councillors have shown there).
This will end the post WW1 duopoly of Labour and Conservative at Westminster swapping government and shadow office.
They want to disqualify Reform (by changing the rules), may try a Labour-Conservative national unity government and cancel elections, will try anything except an election which they know Reform will win.
The polls are now being doctored to the detriment of Reform.
The collapse of Restore (please God before Christmas) and no later than May 2027 where they get nul point in the local elections, should push more voters back to Reform.
Hopefully Reform welcome the morally decent candidates in Restore to Reform (such as the ex-army officer who stood at Dover and then exposed Restore for the poison inside the chocolate bar).
If an election this year = Reform blamed for the economic chaos.
If an election after Spring 2027 = Labour blamed and Reform can avoid over-promising.
Farage/Reform MPs = not perfect but catalyst for change in the next election after the next election.
It's clear that there is no popular support for going to war with Russia. Expect a serious false flag attack killing hundreds or even thousands. Lots more tyrannous legislation is introduced. Reserves are called up, the Army is sent to Ukraine, after a fortnight they run out of supplies and are annihilated. We then discover why the British state has brought over so many young foreign barbarians.
You will be waiting 11 years for 'Ukraine' to come on the scene. It means 'borderlands' for a reason.
Then Youtube search The Charge of the Light Brigade
eightynine Media channel
Then
The Charge Of The Light Brigade 1968
on john benson channel
You are right we will LOSE this war with unthinkable number of casualties and loss of our territory and beyond WW2 damage on towns/cities.
In 1854 Bible believers in Parliament and government office, The Church, understood The Charge of The Light Brigade as a Divine Rebuke to Britain. We were not meant to be involved in that part of the world and not meant to be involved in land wars in Europe.
The Charge of The Light Brigade could now become an unheeded Divine prophesy.
Praying we avoid the folly but God does seem to be judging us by cursing us (Deuteronomy 28 verses 15 to 68).
As you rightly say, this government, and all the governments of the last 10 or more years, has zero intention of stopping the boats. Or, for that matter, immigration.
And Farage? Being a party leader or PM would be too much like hard work.
Burnham wants at least 5 years with a mandate for his "policies", i.e. rejoin the EU and devolve power to the ethnic local councils, there are tough times ahead and his best chance is probably sooner rather than later.
The "anyone but Reform contingent" will be well organised by morons like Norma Lardcover and will have a significant impact on seat distribution. It is very likely that Burnham will be the next PM after the election even if he does have Liberal Democrats and Greens and SNP on board and I don't think he will care too much about a reduction in the number of Labour MPs.
I think Burnham may have missed his moment. Had he gone for an election immediately, he may have had some goodwill and luck behind him. We have now more and more bad news - more boats, bond markets, energy prices and probably blackouts. Burnham under pressure, fighting a full on campaign will be torn between pointless platitudes, hiding or pissing off everyone. Tactical voting will be all over the place and create huge uncertainty (not good for economic stability). Reform may get their act together, maybe they are better on the campaign trail and the media onslaught may work in their favour? Who knows, but these are serious time and all we can do on the outer fringes of Substack is hope - and pray - that enough people in the right parties get their act together.
I’m not sure when an early election can take place but it’s the last ever Labour majority government.
Coming up, apart from the power cuts is the rationing of diesel which will cause even greater disruption than power cuts.
Ukraines destruction of oil refineries in Russia has led to that source of diesel closing.
The US is at capacity in diesel production and appears to have been supplying allies whilst running down their strategic store.
That can’t continue.
Any catastrophe in the energy supply chain, whether electricity, gas and/or diesel will be blamed on Labour AND Tory’s.
Burnham won’t want a crisis government without a Parliamentary majority. But if he does risk it, what happens then?
Perhaps the Tory’s rescuing Labour, in such a scenario. A ‘war’ coalition.
Neither will want another general election but they will fancy a globalist entente cordial.
The alternative is Burnham sailing in without a general election and waiting for his boat to hit the bottom. He might fancy being a Churchill, though an Anthony Eden would be more likely.
All the existing lot in Westminster can strut their stuff all they like but it will make no difference for history shows us where we are heading in this 'Age of Decadence' typified by poor governance.
Decline continues - street protests increase - total collapse follows - all politicians are discredited - a dictator or a serious party of the right emerges to start the long and difficult haul back to prosperity.
Burnham has around a 150 seat majority. In an election, he stands to lose most if not all of that, and may find himself forced into a coalition with the Greens / Lib Dems / Scottish Nationalists. I don't think even Burnham is as stupid as that - and his backbenchers won't thank him when they lose their job. Why would he call an election when he doesn't need to and the outcome will be a lot worse for Labour than it is now?
A smaller majority might be easier to manage. But actually I think that's probably not the case for Burnham, only with that charisma vacuum Starmer. That and Burnham and his mental backbenchers seem more in alignment. So yes maybe he'd be stupid to call an election.
They all seem to like their pay packets in Westminster, where else would they get 150k a year? That's why I think they'll want to delay it. That being said, anything could happen. I've never known a time like this.
Indeed, imagine any other job where Rayner would earn £150k. The mind boggles.
I guess it depends how calamitous they think the next 12 months are going to be. Someone suggested Sunak went early because they were about to start releasing prisoners due to overcrowding. I don't quite buy it myself.
1. He could read spreadsheets and knew he would be blamed for economic crash when Bond market would not lend an extra £18 billion a month to the UK.
2. He did not see Trump winning in November 2024. He thought on May 22nd (when he announced election) that it would be Biden and his Cabinet. If it had we would have been at war just before/after November 2024 with Russia. He wanted to quietly get his family out of London/UK.
3. He wanted to announce election in sunshine of early summer (it rained down hard and he did not have the foresight to have an umbrella).
Labour if they go now and postpone the budget can bank the seats from 2019 but that is as good as it gets.
Their polling average is high in 2019 seats but low in 2024 gained seats. Moreover, the average is nowhere near 35%.
The polling average will fall because of the budget (high taxes boldly going where no Chancellor has gone before), interest rates on mortgages and credit cards surging, the Bond market wanting 10% and more to lend the government the money to pay the interest on the debt to The Bond market, inability to pay the welfare and public sector demands, surging unemployment and inflation, and then 'local community tensions', maybe power cuts, terrorist attacks (maybe in schools and hospitals), and maybe an insane attempt to conscript people to fight the EU and Us Democrat party war in eastern Europe/Euroasia.
Argentina or the CCP may pressure The Falklands and Russia pressure The Shetlands if we poke them in the eye.
The CCP and Putin may start negotiating with the SNP, Plaid and Sinn Fein to develop their plans to leave the UK.
Andy Burnham default mode is take the day off.
He will have to go for Trump and Israel and abandon British Jews to keep his foaming at the mouth left wing of the left wing on board. The short term party management will lead to long term loss if Trump finally retaliates.
If Burnham gets to the locals in May, he can expect a thumping. Then his MPs will go rogue as they see their careers coming to an end.
At the same time General Kemi Badenoch who is gearing up for war with Russia can have a poorly attended Birmingham ICC party conference. Then a few days later finish fifth or lower in Holborn losing the deposit again.
The Conservative polling in Westminster by-elections in England is dismal, Far below opinion poll national average.
Her Westminster Party is half Lib Dems and around 19 know that in 2024 The Lib Dems were just behind them. If they can do the dance with Ed Davey, then changing party takes the Lib Dems to 90 seats and the Conservatives below 100.
A humiliating changing of the guard in official Opposition then looms and then the Conservatives at Westminster can be polling 10% with the Lib Dems 15-20% (especially if the Greens blow it).
Conservative voters in 2024 may see the Conservatives at Westminster vote as a wasted vote if the game is stop high tax Labour (or just to stop the boys getting killed in the meatgrinder if we get there).
Farage and Reform can float up to 35% and pick up a few Conservative MPs and lots of councillors.
The next election can again halve the Conservative vote, Reform by default gets 9-12 million, and Labour leaves the stage.
I hope Howard Cox and others finish Restore by leaving and that decent people who were seduced get out of this despicable party.
Even without 72 million, even without MPs who engage with their constituents/the voters, I think Farage/Reform are going to take down at Westminster Labour and Conservative parties as the government and official opposition.
Reform are slowly improving at council level. The Conservatives can rebuild as genuine Conservatives at local level.
We may in any event be on course for an England (not UK) with much less old Empire ambition to be involved with everything everywhere as if a thriving super power. We may fix our potholes, bins, clean our streets, get crime down, secure borders, improve our education system and hospitals, bring common sense into policing and law courts, reduce the size of government, and let communities start to look after themselves.
We may be initially much less prosperous but have freedom of speech and thought restored.
I hope you’re right but there’s an awful lot of things that have to fall into place in your scenario for Reform to get to 35%. I’d settle for 32% right now and 300 seats.
J S-B you wouldn't care to precis your point!
The msm and uniparty is now Stop Farage and Reform.
Reform very imperfect (Farage more so) but necessary catalyst for change (even if Farage himself can not change).
Labour will go down to 2019 seats even if they win them well.
Labour total collapse in 2024 seats.
Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch meltdown in English Westminster seats even if they stay strong/revive in locals.
Reform win next election. Conservatives need to rebuild from locals.
Election after next We need Westminster government AND Official Opposition both right of centre. Neither party anti-Semitic.
Not only do they have zero intention of stopping the boats but they actively approve of them. The gangs don't exist, the people traffickers all work for the government, unofficially if not officially.
Looks difficult if not impossible in the current environment for Reform to win the next election. However, maybe we’re just one more Islamic terrorist attack from Reform recovering strongly in the polls.
Muslim terror attacks in the UK are either false flags, hoaxes or the actions of drugged-up loners pointed in the right direction and given a push by the security services. Islam is winning both politically and demographically so terrorism is counter-productive. Unless you count intimidating widows into selling their houses cheaply as terrorism!
Reform would be best served using their funding to offer day trips to the "local" inner city.
I'm sure millions in middle England are completely oblivious to what is actually happening.
A Sunday afternoon in Sparkbrook? Nice thought.
I still think if an election came all right minded folk will vote Reform as the lefty coalition of chaos is looming.
The uniparty, mandarin bureaucrats, BBC/Sky/etc, big Charity are desperate to stop Reform/Farage because they will be a wrecking ball to their tax payer financed activity and agenda.
They know at Westminster elections Reform will dominate in the seats Labour won in 2024 (over 200 seats).
They fear the economic meltdown (unemployment, inflation, high interest rates, mortgage repossessions, collapse of pay for the public sector, collapse of welfare, NO MONEY LEFT! and increased crime/civil unrest) may destroy the Labour Party if they try to get to 2029.
They fear that Reform will smash the Conservatives in the south and south-east at Westminster level (even if not at local level because of the integrity, diligence and competence which Conservative councillors have shown there).
This will end the post WW1 duopoly of Labour and Conservative at Westminster swapping government and shadow office.
They want to disqualify Reform (by changing the rules), may try a Labour-Conservative national unity government and cancel elections, will try anything except an election which they know Reform will win.
The polls are now being doctored to the detriment of Reform.
The collapse of Restore (please God before Christmas) and no later than May 2027 where they get nul point in the local elections, should push more voters back to Reform.
Hopefully Reform welcome the morally decent candidates in Restore to Reform (such as the ex-army officer who stood at Dover and then exposed Restore for the poison inside the chocolate bar).
If an election this year = Reform blamed for the economic chaos.
If an election after Spring 2027 = Labour blamed and Reform can avoid over-promising.
Farage/Reform MPs = not perfect but catalyst for change in the next election after the next election.
It's clear that there is no popular support for going to war with Russia. Expect a serious false flag attack killing hundreds or even thousands. Lots more tyrannous legislation is introduced. Reserves are called up, the Army is sent to Ukraine, after a fortnight they run out of supplies and are annihilated. We then discover why the British state has brought over so many young foreign barbarians.
Youtube search
The History of Europe: Every Year
on Cottereau channel
You will be waiting 11 years for 'Ukraine' to come on the scene. It means 'borderlands' for a reason.
Then Youtube search The Charge of the Light Brigade
eightynine Media channel
Then
The Charge Of The Light Brigade 1968
on john benson channel
You are right we will LOSE this war with unthinkable number of casualties and loss of our territory and beyond WW2 damage on towns/cities.
In 1854 Bible believers in Parliament and government office, The Church, understood The Charge of The Light Brigade as a Divine Rebuke to Britain. We were not meant to be involved in that part of the world and not meant to be involved in land wars in Europe.
The Charge of The Light Brigade could now become an unheeded Divine prophesy.
Praying we avoid the folly but God does seem to be judging us by cursing us (Deuteronomy 28 verses 15 to 68).
As you rightly say, this government, and all the governments of the last 10 or more years, has zero intention of stopping the boats. Or, for that matter, immigration.
And Farage? Being a party leader or PM would be too much like hard work.
He is a party leader in case you hadn’t noticed.
So why doesn't he act like one?
Burnham wants at least 5 years with a mandate for his "policies", i.e. rejoin the EU and devolve power to the ethnic local councils, there are tough times ahead and his best chance is probably sooner rather than later.
The "anyone but Reform contingent" will be well organised by morons like Norma Lardcover and will have a significant impact on seat distribution. It is very likely that Burnham will be the next PM after the election even if he does have Liberal Democrats and Greens and SNP on board and I don't think he will care too much about a reduction in the number of Labour MPs.
I think Burnham may have missed his moment. Had he gone for an election immediately, he may have had some goodwill and luck behind him. We have now more and more bad news - more boats, bond markets, energy prices and probably blackouts. Burnham under pressure, fighting a full on campaign will be torn between pointless platitudes, hiding or pissing off everyone. Tactical voting will be all over the place and create huge uncertainty (not good for economic stability). Reform may get their act together, maybe they are better on the campaign trail and the media onslaught may work in their favour? Who knows, but these are serious time and all we can do on the outer fringes of Substack is hope - and pray - that enough people in the right parties get their act together.
I’m not sure when an early election can take place but it’s the last ever Labour majority government.
Coming up, apart from the power cuts is the rationing of diesel which will cause even greater disruption than power cuts.
Ukraines destruction of oil refineries in Russia has led to that source of diesel closing.
The US is at capacity in diesel production and appears to have been supplying allies whilst running down their strategic store.
That can’t continue.
Any catastrophe in the energy supply chain, whether electricity, gas and/or diesel will be blamed on Labour AND Tory’s.
Burnham won’t want a crisis government without a Parliamentary majority. But if he does risk it, what happens then?
Perhaps the Tory’s rescuing Labour, in such a scenario. A ‘war’ coalition.
Neither will want another general election but they will fancy a globalist entente cordial.
The alternative is Burnham sailing in without a general election and waiting for his boat to hit the bottom. He might fancy being a Churchill, though an Anthony Eden would be more likely.
Breaking news: shooting yourself in the foot repeatedly may cause bleeding. More on this at 10.
All the existing lot in Westminster can strut their stuff all they like but it will make no difference for history shows us where we are heading in this 'Age of Decadence' typified by poor governance.
Decline continues - street protests increase - total collapse follows - all politicians are discredited - a dictator or a serious party of the right emerges to start the long and difficult haul back to prosperity.