Reform has a slow puncture

I recall saying at the time of the Channel 4 sting that we probably wouldn’t see an immediate effect in the polls, but there’s been a flurry of polls over the last few days that all point to a slow puncture for Reform.

It’s seems to have cost them two points, which in FPTP terms is enough to cost them actual seats in a general election, which is a problem if Burnham goes for an early election. John Curtice also suggests that Restore Britain could also cost them as many as fifty seats. Worse still, it puts them behind the Tories for the first time in a long time.

Meanwhile, a Guardian MRP poll suggests that tactical voting puts Refrom in fourth place. This, I think, is overstated, but it should not be underestimated how much Farage is disliked. Reform operates on the misapprehension that they owe their standing to Farage, when their party is primarily a register of disaffected voters. At this point it would do about as well with virtually anyone else at the helm, and the longer Farage stays in post, the more support for Reform will bleed away.

In my view, regardless of how people feel about the regime, they know on an instinctive level that Farage is not fit to be PM. They know it would be a repeat of the Johnson fiasco. If it is to proceed as a political party then it has to start looking like one - with people capable of forming a government - which isn’t likely to happen under Farage.

A slump has been on the cards for Reform for a while now. Most polling analysts have been saying Reform has already peaked some time ago. This seems to pan out. Reform isn’t winning by-elections, and their shtick is wearing thin. A spending splurge might help them recover some lost ground on the run up to an election, and they can certainly outspend Restore, but I don’t think we have seen the full fallout of Farage’s financial dealings yet.

My hunch is that the media will wait until conference season is over to pick up where they left off and we’ll see a steady drumbeat of intrigue stories. They’re not going to let this one go. Certainly, if Reform thinks the worst of the storm has passed, they are sorely mistaken.

That said, Andy Burnham is increasingly conspicuous by his absence. He’s spent much of the week prancing around on the “world stage” while domestic anger about the not-so-small boats is turning to white hot rage. Burnham has yet to weigh in on it, but we can assume that when he does, he will be as clunky and tone deaf as his predecessor. Labour’s lead could very rapidly take a turn south. It’s still a safe bet that on a long enough timeline, Burnham will end up as hated as Starmer.

I suspect that is the reason Burnham probably will go for an early election. His advisers aren’t stupid. They will probably wait for the next round of intra-right wing bickering. If it looks like Farage has used up his nine lives, Burnham will make his move. He has the advantage of the winter weather window where dinghies cannot make the Channel crossing.

This is all speculation of course. Yours is as good as mine. I just don’t see Burnham’s popularity holding up very long. I haven’t seen the slightest indication that Burnham realises, even for a nanosecond, how utterly shafted Britain is. I don't think he has any inclination of how hated politicians are either. He just wafts through life, completely oblivious to anything of consequence, and thinks public disaffection is remedied with cheap bribes and gimmicks.

For all his projected image, I still have no idea what Burnham stands for, or even if he stands for anything at all. He came into office without a plan, and doesn’t really know what to do. He might very well be the most pointless politician of all time. He may as well be a life-sized cardboard cut-out, and I'm not wholly convinced that he isn't. With neither Reform nor Labour looking especially attractive, Kemi Badenoch only need tread water and try not to blow it in the meantime.

This comes with the caveat that polling analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves, and is perhaps the lowest form of political blogging. The sort of thing you do on an off day when you’re just going through the motions.

My true feeling is that politics has taken on a life of its own, outside the usual channels of party politics, and we are likely to see more aggressive manoeuvres on the streets. I’m far from the only one who's utterly sick of political games. Direct action in the last month has accomplished more than the parties of the Slop Right, and the governmental response has also removed all doubt. This government has zero intention of stopping the boats. This takes us into new territory where elections are a sideshow. We’d better hope so, because politics isn’t working.