Makerfield: the one everyone got wrong

I was expecting a lowish turnout. It wasn’t. The polls expected a close contest. It wasn’t. We all got it wrong. So what happened?

It looks to me like Andy Burnham is popular in his own right. I can see why. Superficially, he sounds like he gets it. His carefully crafted message resonates - and best of all, he is the most immediate means of ridding the nation of Keir Starmer - one of the most hated prime ministers in living memory.

All the same, it should have gone better for Reform. Given how unpopular Labour is as a party, it should have been a closer contest. I think Makerfield’s proximity to Scouseland has some bearing on it, but there’s no getting away from the fact that Reform’s candidate was seriously awful. I’m not taken with the “working class plumber” shtick. While some see a “proper geezer”, I just see a yob.

This, to me, suggests that Reform is still having problems finding quality candidates to run with. It seems incapable of acquiring any new talent of its own. Part of Reform’s well documented structural deficiencies.

As far as this blog is concerned, though, the point of interest is Restore Britain. Imbued with Ukippy delusions, they really thought the were going to knock it out of the park. The consensus among them is that they've seriously underperformed.

My view is that 3,111 votes is fairly respectable for a fresh out of the box party, and it tracks the performance of The Referendum Party, which is the best comparator in my book. Their polling performance is actually the least of their problems. Restore established a reputation in this by-election - and it's not one to be proud of. Lowe is increasingly looking like an irascible old man, while his activists look like a ranting goon squad. Add to that a woefully dismal candidate, and it would suggest that Restore has some serious issues to work out.

These issues are fixable in theory. Not for the first time, I’ve set out ten points the party needs to address. I've banged this particular drum from the beginning. It is also good advice for Reform. The sad part is, it would cost them very little to do it (just taking a bit of care and having your ducks in a row), and nothing is lost by doing it. Yet, repeatedly, I'm told it just doesn't matter. The right is consumed by its pathological amateurism and carelessness. The "it'll do for now" mentality taints everything they do. All of their problems stem from the same structural incoherence.

What Restore and Reform have in common is that everybody who works for them considers themselves too important to do the small but important chores that make the difference - in the belief that it doesn’t matter. There’s one crucial and overriding reason why Restore, especially, is not going to cut it. Follow the genealogy. It is a Ukip derivative. It’s late stage Brexit boomerism providing cover for angry young men in a hurry. A populism that isn’t popular.

I've now read all the Restore post-mortems. While most of the criticism are valid, they all boil down to the Lord of the Flies dynamic, with Rupert Lowe as an absentee landlord. Lowe isn't up to it, and without Lowe, there's not much to be salvaged. A point also to note is that the backing of Elon Musk has had no electoral impact at all. Restore, through its champions in Lotus Eaters, has more of a US fanbase - which is not very useful. It again underscores that Twitter is not real life.

It will be interesting to see how this result shapes voter opinion on the right. I expect a few waverers will conclude that the right simply doesn’t have the luxury of pratting about with start-up splinter parties when the differences are marginal. This narcissism of small differences is ultimately a gift to the left. The main takeaway form this election is that the left will unite to stop Reform, and if that tracks elsewhere then victory is not assured and we could be looking at a blocking coalition or a hung parliament in 2029.

Reform can quite reasonably argue that this was no ordinary by-election, and that normal dynamics do not apply, and that they are still leading in the polls, but all the same, they need to be asking serious questions about their image. Reform still looks more like a daytime TV quiz show than a serious prospect for government, and despite a few notable policy hires, there is still no outward sign of an intellectual foundation. It is still leaning too heavily on Farage’s pulling power, while the rest of his clan are liability if left unsupervised. As with Restore, everything that’s going wrong is downstream of the leadership - and neither has a plan B.

With the Tories barely treading water, and the insurgent right in a state of full blown civil war, it would not surprise me in the least if Andy Burnham was mulling a general election. He has three months at most to prove he is not Starmer with a regional accent. If he can do that, then Labour stands a chance at a second term. There’s one central reason why the right will not win in 2029. It doesn’t deserve to.