Seconded. But the money isn't there. Trouble with the SDP is that they stand foursquare against both sides of our rotten establishment, and as such, no one with any money or influence has any interest in giving them the leg up they need.
All that can be done is to hang on in there and hope that someone in Reform is reading the SDP green papers for bedtime reading.
I'm probably going to get dogpiled, but that's exactly the wrong attitude. If the Right wants to actually win they need to consolidate the roughly 50% of voters who are Right-leaning.
Here's the thing. The numbers show that there is huge scope for deportations on the grounds that a large segment of mass migration over the past 15 years hasn't been abiding by the basic fundamentals of the social contract. For a start, Pew data from 2017 showed that 700-900K were here illegally, not even registered with the asylum system. Visa overstays, people smuggled in on lorries, or who got on a plane here and never went back. There are some pretty wild claims circulating on social media, but when one looks at actual food data from supermarkets the upper limit figure today is somewhere in the region of 1,500,000 people in the UK- 71.5 million total.
Then we have foreign criminals. Prison figures don't reflect the truth because of two-tier. The Centre for Migration Control (which has a Substack) used FOI to show that foreign nationals commit crime at a rate of x2.5 that of British people, and sex offences at a rate of x3.5. Then there is the fact that a recent piece of research showed that 1 in 6 households claiming UC are foreign, and if the current trends continue with far larger numbers of people becoming 'eligible' this figure is likely to grow precipitously.
Then there are the Jihadis. The Muslim Brotherhood. The IRGC. Anyone involved in the grooming gangs. Hate preachers. The Albanians and their huge levels of participation in organised crime. The criminal networks for which vape, sweet, and barber shops are a money laundering front.
Finally, there are the significant numbers of people who made asylum claims fraudulently. It's not as high as some think, but I found some proposals by a guy who used to be fairly senior in the UK border force, who said that fairly basic methods could show that between 25-35% of asylum claims were fraudulent. Take away the effects of legitimate claims like Ukrainians and Hong Kongers and the percentages skew upwards quite considerably.
We need to win! WIN. That's about Hearts & Minds. Polling shows only mid-twenties support for remigration. Ask about foreign criminals and the figure jumps to 80%! I have a mate who is a staunch Restore supporter. He's been winning over another mate who fixed my garage door. The garage door fixer has several Black mates. He's hardly going to vote for people who want to deport his mates.
Besides Kemi is great. My criticism of her is that in the past she's been too lukewarm on the issue of mass migration on shows like Triggernometry. On everything else she's great. She's an engineer by training, has shown the biggest resistance to Nut Zero of any mainstream politician, and she's fond of quoting Thomas Sowell on trade-offs.
And Nigerian British are one of the better performing groups. They have great educational results, low rates of crime, and outperform White British people on merit. They're in the same class as Sikhs, Hindus, Chinese, Koreans, Malaysians, Singaporeans, Ghaneans, etc.
If anything Zia Yusef's figures are a little low. Just getting rid of the 'wrong uns' would reach totals a bit higher than 1-2 million, but of course there is a big difference between saying you want to get rid of someone, and actually getting rid of them. Plus, people seem to forget, even if we leave the ECHR we would still need to abide by UN51. That's why welfare needs to become contributions based, except for certain instances like family carers. It's also why we need a lie detector system. It's the easiest way to establish to a civil standard that potential deportees don't fear return to their home country. It's also a good way of deterring asylum seekers before they even choose their country of destination as economic migrants.
Plus, we need to be realistic. Americans think Trump was great for closing the border. On ICE, the figure is below sustainability for political purposes. He needed the images to get a lot of people to voluntarily self-deport, but it will be a significant factor in the mid-terms and not in a good way (although it's mostly a factor for White independents). The economy, tariffs and Iran rank higher. The Latino vote in particular has turned against- but the polling shows their main concern is the economy by far. New industrial jobs take years to appear, and the American permitting system has slowed the American reindustrialisation significantly.
Well you are clearly an optimist but lipstick on a pig is still a pig and none of the current parties will solve our problems and history proves a country has to actually reach rock bottom before it rises again as covered in Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb's 1975 essay The Fate of Empires.
Some of your suggestions like introducing lie detectors, whatever their actual merit, are not going to be on the agendas of any of the current lot in Westminster.
Pete is basically right and your desire for the Right if it wants to actually win needs to consolidate the roughly 50% of voters who are Right-leaning is for the immediate future a pipe dream while we must hope and pray that the election after next does see a realignment of politics with a definite right of centre agenda to finally counter the years of left leaning woke politics.
Our current problems stem from a gutless political class who are consumed by 'suicidal empathy.'
Big fan of Gad Saad. I've been following his work since 2018. Suicidal empathy and luxury beliefs are two core concepts we need to spread as widely as possible. I'm fairly optimistic about a Reform win. Tactical voting was stronger on the Left than the Right in the recent elections, and many retired or working class people found themselves unable to vote because they weren't aware of the photo ID requirement. Many will now be applying for some form of valid photo ID or a Voter Authority Certificate. My mate was highly incensed he couldn't use his CSCS card. His passport went down with his boat. Meanwhile, in Wales Labour activists were circulating leaflets on how to vote written in Urdu.
I also agree with Pete. Even though Reform is likely to win, I'm not optimistic about their chances of turning the country around. We need a return to the ideals of Burke, C.S. Lewis and Chesterton, paired with pragmatic realism and a shot of civil libertarianism for British citizens. Moral busybodies with ideological blinkers got us here.
The other thing I keep telling my mate, the Restore voter, is that, if anything, the Left is more dangerous. How many young people, for example, know that 80% of their housing woes are down to government, not capitalism as they've been told?
My broader point in the previous comment was that mass migration is only the tip of the iceberg. This country has deeper problems at a foundational level. If the CEO of Revolut decides on an IPO, Britain will miss out on the equivalent of the tax contributions of 500,000 working people for a year, thanks to the changes in tax law and capital flight. Our talent is leaving. One of the best things a Reform government could do is partner with Singaporean firm DigiAlly to make borrowing cheaper for SME. Reform also need to finds 6% of the budget for public infrastructure for at least 10 years. And then are issues like the National Trust et al, with an agenda of drastically reducing farming and rewilding everywhere.
Back in 2017 I started telling Republicans that Black blue collar men were going to swing to Trump and they needed to dial it down. I was right. There are now lots of minority British people content creating online, many of whom are avidly opposed to mass migration. Apostates like Harris Sultan or Apostate Prophet are great for highlighting the problems of Islam. My point would be that I think there is plenty of room to turn the flank of the Left's Open Society brigade.
The other thing to bear in mind is that smart phones and online are kryptonite for Islam. Around 50% of British Muslims no longer attend mosques and around 9% are likely apostate. Most Muslims are raised on the Disney version of Islam. A lot of the problem occur when they decide to study Islam more closely and found out what the Quran and the Hadiths actually say. But at the same time a growing number of Muslims are going online and doing side-by-side comparisons of the lives of Jesus and Muhammed and their teachings, for example. Sufficed to say the comparisons aren't great.
This is a multi-front civilisational contest. In Iran for example, the Regime was recently forced to admit that 67% of mosques were shuttered. It's a global trend accelerated by internal dissent, and online technology seems to be the one thing which might actually reduce the range and power of global Islam.
I fear the election after 2029 will be too late. 2029 may be too late if Burnham wins and becomes PM as he’s determined to introduce PR for Westminster elections. That will be tailored for socialism not capitalism and we can turn the lights out ladies and gentlemen.
Excellent comments. It looks like the UK is going to limp on, without much progress, having to put up with sectarian politics and dysfunction. Australia where I live is not much better. In fact, policies in the UK look remarkably similar to those in Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
A few idea. Raise the VAT threshold. People think billing customers £85K is a lot, but by the time all expenses taxes and contractors are paid, the self-employed are lucky if they are taking home £2K a month. How is a day rate builder supposed to employee an apprentice from that?
Energy. Other than migration, it's the biggest problem. Give data centres licenses for gas turbines. Reopen the North Sea and change taxes to 35-40% cap gains. Regulatory Red Team nuclear.
Require direct standing to object to requests for planning permissions. This is a legal term. Standing means you have a plausible claim that planning permission granted would directly affect you.
On energy the Tories really have undergone a sea change and they've developed an in-depth strategy for change. Reform would need to steal their talent immediately. Kathryn Porter would be the obvious pick. We should ask Doomberg to remote work for us:)
Hire lawyers. Lots of lawyers. Now. Blair did a number on this country. He entangled his Fabian elite managerialism into every layer of the UKs legislation.
Excellent post and for my money we need Reform UK, albeit I'm NO fan of the charlatan Farage, to beat Burnham as it will pretty much guarantee Labour implodes and hopefully with the Greens be consigned to the dustbin of history.
Yes. Reform aren’t perfect by any means but they are the only vehicle to stop Burnham and crush the life out of Labour. Such a shame Lowe can’t see past revenge on Farage. Can someone tell him there’s plenty of time for that but NOT at Makerfield.
I'm not voting for Reform. I can't stand them, I despise most of their top team, their online followers are abusive scum and I think in government they'll be as bad as Labour in terms of national destruction. If they're the only game in town then I'll look for another game.
It appears the next general election is going to occur yesterday judging by Peters thoughts.
With Labour in disarray and unlikely to get anywhere near government next time around, I only see an election happening at the last possible moment.
That gives parties other than Reform time to organise and draw up solutions to Britains woes.
It also provides time to observe Reform in the glare of the spotlight for a considerable amount of time.
If they survive the coming examination they will do very well. If they don’t Restore and other political anti globalist parties will shove them out of the way.
Voters don’t accept political shenanigans anymore so whichever party is honest will succeed.
> Voters know what Farage is (a sleazy chancer) but they don’t care. They are not voting for Farage. They are voting to clear out the stables.
I'm not going to vote for Farage, even though i largely agree with him on immigration, because I think he's a deliberate conscious traitor who would happily sell us out to Putin and Trump. https://pontifex.substack.com/p/is-nigel-farage-a-traitor
First in to comment, good writing as ever. Incisive and insightful.
I think the elephant in the room is the Reform civil war that will come either just before the next election or is inevitable if they get into office. If their candidates are the barrel scrape they would appear to be and their vetting a quick phone call to confirm 'not racist are you?' then it's gonna be popcorn time when they get in.
Actually if Starmer wants to extend Labour's life support (and piss Burnham, Streeting et al right off) he should spite them by calling an immediate election and lose it. Let the Reform disaster happen and let them take the blame for Britain's IMF bailout in four or five years.
If he tries to stay the course I've got a funny feeling we'll end up with the monumental shock of a Conservative government in 2029. Possibly in a coalition with Restore Britain but we'll see. I'm also gonna get a cheeky tenner on the Greens winning Makerfield, so maybe there's something in the water up here.
I think of the outlier parties, Restore may cause the upset. They haven't the resources for a national campaign, but like in Great Yarmouth locals, they may just go head to head against Reform. I don't know if they'll win, but I see Lowe's straight talking just at the time the uniparty are nailing Farage for his £5m "tip" could appeal. A lot depends on who the Reform candidate is.
In this election, perhaps not. But longer term, I think Restore are the ones to watch. Reform’s leadership are clearly compromised, not just Farage. Reform’s rank and file are much more like Restore. I think many will jump ship.
I’m not sure simply calling a GE is in the gift of Starmer. The King orders the dissolution of parliament and he could rightly say, we are less than 2-years into a parliament, you have a 165 seat majority and I’m sure that if you can’t corral a majority with that number of MPs then someone else in your party can. I’ll speak with them. I don’t think he would take kindly in a PM trying to force a GE for no good reason especially if the plan is to lose it.
I agree about the SDP. I very much like the cut of Clouston’s jib. And as he himself says his party is basically where the British public is.
Left on the economy (too left for my tastes but he’d still get my vote), and quite right on culture and immigration.
They deserve to be doing better.
Seconded. But the money isn't there. Trouble with the SDP is that they stand foursquare against both sides of our rotten establishment, and as such, no one with any money or influence has any interest in giving them the leg up they need.
All that can be done is to hang on in there and hope that someone in Reform is reading the SDP green papers for bedtime reading.
A Nigerian should not be in England let alone be a politician!
I'm probably going to get dogpiled, but that's exactly the wrong attitude. If the Right wants to actually win they need to consolidate the roughly 50% of voters who are Right-leaning.
Here's the thing. The numbers show that there is huge scope for deportations on the grounds that a large segment of mass migration over the past 15 years hasn't been abiding by the basic fundamentals of the social contract. For a start, Pew data from 2017 showed that 700-900K were here illegally, not even registered with the asylum system. Visa overstays, people smuggled in on lorries, or who got on a plane here and never went back. There are some pretty wild claims circulating on social media, but when one looks at actual food data from supermarkets the upper limit figure today is somewhere in the region of 1,500,000 people in the UK- 71.5 million total.
Then we have foreign criminals. Prison figures don't reflect the truth because of two-tier. The Centre for Migration Control (which has a Substack) used FOI to show that foreign nationals commit crime at a rate of x2.5 that of British people, and sex offences at a rate of x3.5. Then there is the fact that a recent piece of research showed that 1 in 6 households claiming UC are foreign, and if the current trends continue with far larger numbers of people becoming 'eligible' this figure is likely to grow precipitously.
Then there are the Jihadis. The Muslim Brotherhood. The IRGC. Anyone involved in the grooming gangs. Hate preachers. The Albanians and their huge levels of participation in organised crime. The criminal networks for which vape, sweet, and barber shops are a money laundering front.
Finally, there are the significant numbers of people who made asylum claims fraudulently. It's not as high as some think, but I found some proposals by a guy who used to be fairly senior in the UK border force, who said that fairly basic methods could show that between 25-35% of asylum claims were fraudulent. Take away the effects of legitimate claims like Ukrainians and Hong Kongers and the percentages skew upwards quite considerably.
We need to win! WIN. That's about Hearts & Minds. Polling shows only mid-twenties support for remigration. Ask about foreign criminals and the figure jumps to 80%! I have a mate who is a staunch Restore supporter. He's been winning over another mate who fixed my garage door. The garage door fixer has several Black mates. He's hardly going to vote for people who want to deport his mates.
Besides Kemi is great. My criticism of her is that in the past she's been too lukewarm on the issue of mass migration on shows like Triggernometry. On everything else she's great. She's an engineer by training, has shown the biggest resistance to Nut Zero of any mainstream politician, and she's fond of quoting Thomas Sowell on trade-offs.
And Nigerian British are one of the better performing groups. They have great educational results, low rates of crime, and outperform White British people on merit. They're in the same class as Sikhs, Hindus, Chinese, Koreans, Malaysians, Singaporeans, Ghaneans, etc.
If anything Zia Yusef's figures are a little low. Just getting rid of the 'wrong uns' would reach totals a bit higher than 1-2 million, but of course there is a big difference between saying you want to get rid of someone, and actually getting rid of them. Plus, people seem to forget, even if we leave the ECHR we would still need to abide by UN51. That's why welfare needs to become contributions based, except for certain instances like family carers. It's also why we need a lie detector system. It's the easiest way to establish to a civil standard that potential deportees don't fear return to their home country. It's also a good way of deterring asylum seekers before they even choose their country of destination as economic migrants.
Plus, we need to be realistic. Americans think Trump was great for closing the border. On ICE, the figure is below sustainability for political purposes. He needed the images to get a lot of people to voluntarily self-deport, but it will be a significant factor in the mid-terms and not in a good way (although it's mostly a factor for White independents). The economy, tariffs and Iran rank higher. The Latino vote in particular has turned against- but the polling shows their main concern is the economy by far. New industrial jobs take years to appear, and the American permitting system has slowed the American reindustrialisation significantly.
Well you are clearly an optimist but lipstick on a pig is still a pig and none of the current parties will solve our problems and history proves a country has to actually reach rock bottom before it rises again as covered in Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb's 1975 essay The Fate of Empires.
Some of your suggestions like introducing lie detectors, whatever their actual merit, are not going to be on the agendas of any of the current lot in Westminster.
Pete is basically right and your desire for the Right if it wants to actually win needs to consolidate the roughly 50% of voters who are Right-leaning is for the immediate future a pipe dream while we must hope and pray that the election after next does see a realignment of politics with a definite right of centre agenda to finally counter the years of left leaning woke politics.
Our current problems stem from a gutless political class who are consumed by 'suicidal empathy.'
Big fan of Gad Saad. I've been following his work since 2018. Suicidal empathy and luxury beliefs are two core concepts we need to spread as widely as possible. I'm fairly optimistic about a Reform win. Tactical voting was stronger on the Left than the Right in the recent elections, and many retired or working class people found themselves unable to vote because they weren't aware of the photo ID requirement. Many will now be applying for some form of valid photo ID or a Voter Authority Certificate. My mate was highly incensed he couldn't use his CSCS card. His passport went down with his boat. Meanwhile, in Wales Labour activists were circulating leaflets on how to vote written in Urdu.
I also agree with Pete. Even though Reform is likely to win, I'm not optimistic about their chances of turning the country around. We need a return to the ideals of Burke, C.S. Lewis and Chesterton, paired with pragmatic realism and a shot of civil libertarianism for British citizens. Moral busybodies with ideological blinkers got us here.
The other thing I keep telling my mate, the Restore voter, is that, if anything, the Left is more dangerous. How many young people, for example, know that 80% of their housing woes are down to government, not capitalism as they've been told?
My broader point in the previous comment was that mass migration is only the tip of the iceberg. This country has deeper problems at a foundational level. If the CEO of Revolut decides on an IPO, Britain will miss out on the equivalent of the tax contributions of 500,000 working people for a year, thanks to the changes in tax law and capital flight. Our talent is leaving. One of the best things a Reform government could do is partner with Singaporean firm DigiAlly to make borrowing cheaper for SME. Reform also need to finds 6% of the budget for public infrastructure for at least 10 years. And then are issues like the National Trust et al, with an agenda of drastically reducing farming and rewilding everywhere.
Back in 2017 I started telling Republicans that Black blue collar men were going to swing to Trump and they needed to dial it down. I was right. There are now lots of minority British people content creating online, many of whom are avidly opposed to mass migration. Apostates like Harris Sultan or Apostate Prophet are great for highlighting the problems of Islam. My point would be that I think there is plenty of room to turn the flank of the Left's Open Society brigade.
The other thing to bear in mind is that smart phones and online are kryptonite for Islam. Around 50% of British Muslims no longer attend mosques and around 9% are likely apostate. Most Muslims are raised on the Disney version of Islam. A lot of the problem occur when they decide to study Islam more closely and found out what the Quran and the Hadiths actually say. But at the same time a growing number of Muslims are going online and doing side-by-side comparisons of the lives of Jesus and Muhammed and their teachings, for example. Sufficed to say the comparisons aren't great.
This is a multi-front civilisational contest. In Iran for example, the Regime was recently forced to admit that 67% of mosques were shuttered. It's a global trend accelerated by internal dissent, and online technology seems to be the one thing which might actually reduce the range and power of global Islam.
I fear the election after 2029 will be too late. 2029 may be too late if Burnham wins and becomes PM as he’s determined to introduce PR for Westminster elections. That will be tailored for socialism not capitalism and we can turn the lights out ladies and gentlemen.
Ah, but she's British, don't you know? Her passport says so...
What have we done to ourselves?
Mostly bent over and been screwed by total wankers!!
What an awful thought at breakfast time.
I don’t care, she’s not English and she must be sent back to Nigeria!
Kemi endorsing attack on Free Speech was the last straw
Excellent comments. It looks like the UK is going to limp on, without much progress, having to put up with sectarian politics and dysfunction. Australia where I live is not much better. In fact, policies in the UK look remarkably similar to those in Canada, New Zealand and Australia.
A few idea. Raise the VAT threshold. People think billing customers £85K is a lot, but by the time all expenses taxes and contractors are paid, the self-employed are lucky if they are taking home £2K a month. How is a day rate builder supposed to employee an apprentice from that?
Energy. Other than migration, it's the biggest problem. Give data centres licenses for gas turbines. Reopen the North Sea and change taxes to 35-40% cap gains. Regulatory Red Team nuclear.
Require direct standing to object to requests for planning permissions. This is a legal term. Standing means you have a plausible claim that planning permission granted would directly affect you.
On energy the Tories really have undergone a sea change and they've developed an in-depth strategy for change. Reform would need to steal their talent immediately. Kathryn Porter would be the obvious pick. We should ask Doomberg to remote work for us:)
Hire lawyers. Lots of lawyers. Now. Blair did a number on this country. He entangled his Fabian elite managerialism into every layer of the UKs legislation.
Excellent post and for my money we need Reform UK, albeit I'm NO fan of the charlatan Farage, to beat Burnham as it will pretty much guarantee Labour implodes and hopefully with the Greens be consigned to the dustbin of history.
Yes. Reform aren’t perfect by any means but they are the only vehicle to stop Burnham and crush the life out of Labour. Such a shame Lowe can’t see past revenge on Farage. Can someone tell him there’s plenty of time for that but NOT at Makerfield.
I'm not voting for Reform. I can't stand them, I despise most of their top team, their online followers are abusive scum and I think in government they'll be as bad as Labour in terms of national destruction. If they're the only game in town then I'll look for another game.
It appears the next general election is going to occur yesterday judging by Peters thoughts.
With Labour in disarray and unlikely to get anywhere near government next time around, I only see an election happening at the last possible moment.
That gives parties other than Reform time to organise and draw up solutions to Britains woes.
It also provides time to observe Reform in the glare of the spotlight for a considerable amount of time.
If they survive the coming examination they will do very well. If they don’t Restore and other political anti globalist parties will shove them out of the way.
Voters don’t accept political shenanigans anymore so whichever party is honest will succeed.
How honest is Reform?
> Voters know what Farage is (a sleazy chancer) but they don’t care. They are not voting for Farage. They are voting to clear out the stables.
I'm not going to vote for Farage, even though i largely agree with him on immigration, because I think he's a deliberate conscious traitor who would happily sell us out to Putin and Trump. https://pontifex.substack.com/p/is-nigel-farage-a-traitor
First in to comment, good writing as ever. Incisive and insightful.
I think the elephant in the room is the Reform civil war that will come either just before the next election or is inevitable if they get into office. If their candidates are the barrel scrape they would appear to be and their vetting a quick phone call to confirm 'not racist are you?' then it's gonna be popcorn time when they get in.
Actually if Starmer wants to extend Labour's life support (and piss Burnham, Streeting et al right off) he should spite them by calling an immediate election and lose it. Let the Reform disaster happen and let them take the blame for Britain's IMF bailout in four or five years.
If he tries to stay the course I've got a funny feeling we'll end up with the monumental shock of a Conservative government in 2029. Possibly in a coalition with Restore Britain but we'll see. I'm also gonna get a cheeky tenner on the Greens winning Makerfield, so maybe there's something in the water up here.
I think of the outlier parties, Restore may cause the upset. They haven't the resources for a national campaign, but like in Great Yarmouth locals, they may just go head to head against Reform. I don't know if they'll win, but I see Lowe's straight talking just at the time the uniparty are nailing Farage for his £5m "tip" could appeal. A lot depends on who the Reform candidate is.
In this election, perhaps not. But longer term, I think Restore are the ones to watch. Reform’s leadership are clearly compromised, not just Farage. Reform’s rank and file are much more like Restore. I think many will jump ship.
I’m not sure simply calling a GE is in the gift of Starmer. The King orders the dissolution of parliament and he could rightly say, we are less than 2-years into a parliament, you have a 165 seat majority and I’m sure that if you can’t corral a majority with that number of MPs then someone else in your party can. I’ll speak with them. I don’t think he would take kindly in a PM trying to force a GE for no good reason especially if the plan is to lose it.
The Greens definitely won't win Makerfield. Save your money.