Immigration: shifting tides
I would really really like it if the Tory party was obliterated. It’s the only way they’ll ever get the message. But we’re not that lucky. The Labour party has kicked off its campaign to make the Tories look electable. They’re going to double-down on all the worst ideas in circulation. They will save the Tories from a wipeout.
I now strongly suspect the Labour party will struggle to win an outright majority and poll less well than in 2019. The decider will be disaffected Tory voters who’ll be tossing a coin as to whether to vote tactically to stave off Labour, or simply stay at home. There aren’t any alternative parties in the offing that that inspire.
The FT seems to think the Tories will lose out to Greens in rural areas. My gut feeling is that the “revolt on the right” will evaporate. Looking at trends among those still willing to vote, you can see why Tory wets think it’s unwise to move from the “centre ground”.
To a point, they are right. Even if the Tories took a sharp turn to the right, nobody would believe them and nobody would trust them, and however far to the right they are likely to go, it won’t be enough. Sentiment is hardening beyond their reach.
The issue that stalks the Tory party, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, is immigration. Voters will be less than enthused by timid measures that amount to closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Not least the Rwanda policy which won’t even dent the backlog, and Tory thinking on the subject doesn’t come close to dealing with the third world garbage immigration we’ve already imported.
On that score, the centre right is unoccupied. To get centre right immigration policies, you have to look to the fringes. Ukip is now styling itself as an anti-Islam party, and the SDP is calling for a decade-long pause on all immigration. Reform’s official policy is the ill-thought-out “net zero immigration” slogan, which still implies a substantial influx.
All the same, the Overton Window has shifted substantially. It’s only a matter of time before fringe Tory organisations start talking about repatriations. Recent discourse about birth-rates suggest the penny is dropping.
There’s also another interesting trend lately. I've noticed recently that the up-and-coming independent voices on the right are far less inclined to give a toss about being called racist. They're further right than me by a country mile, and they're even angrier than I am about the state of the country. I'm only just middle aged, but the new breed are far younger than me. The young men of this country are turning right, and the establishment parties have nothing to say to them. Even Ukip and Reform look like ridiculous boomer relics to them. We have turned a corner.
Politically, I'm a dinosaur now. I'm a civic nationalist. My politics is built on the idea that Britain can successfully integrate immigrants from other cultures while maintaining a coherent national identity. Twenty years ago that was true. On a long enough timeline we can, provided levels of immigration are sustainable. But we're way past that now. Regardless of my feelings about ethno-nationalism, an ethnic component of nationalism is now a given. If we want to survive as a functioning country, that is.
The bottom line is that we cannot integrate the third worlders we've imported, and importing more is an existential danger. Not all cultures are equal. Civic nationalism can no longer ignore the elephant in the room.
It's now difficult to say if the damage can be undone. Either way, I have to labour under the illusion that it can, otherwise I would simply give up. I still believe that ethno-nationalism is an electoral and moral cul-de-sac, but we still need a dose of realism. If the mainstream of politics can't acknowledge the problems, then a real far right will prosper. One that does not share my squeamishness.
We already see this on the continent. The new generation of Germans doesn't carry any residual guilt for the Holocaust and they're wondering why their country must be turned into a third world slum to atone for the misdeeds of Nazis some decades before they were even born. Europe does not owe the world our cultural suicide to atone for past sins.
I am confident, however, that robust nationalism need not exclude settled minorities if they are loyal to the idea of a democratic Britain. A great many of immigrant stock understand that our survival is their survival. We must confidently assert as a country what we will no longer tolerate, and be fearless in asserting and enforcing our values.
To do that will require a functioning police force. We cannot afford two tier policing. We must get serious about deporting those with no right to be here. We must reverse the influx of garbage immigration that adds nothing to the economic and social life of the country. We must draw a line in the sand against Islamic extremism and its sympathisers. We must restrict benefits to foreign born citizens and stop treating citizenship as tradable commodity. We need a pause on all immigration for a generation.
There is a way back for Britain but we have to get real about self-preservation or face Lebanonisation and civil war later down the line. However uncomfortable you feel about robust nationalism, it's better than the terrifying alternatives.
One thing that’s clear, though, is that nothing will be resolved in the net five to ten years. We can expect no improvements under a Labour led coalition, under which the open borders blob will have a field day, and it is not assured that a reinvented Tory party will be returned to power at the following election. All the negative trends associated with immigration are likely to worsen. We can expect the public mood to harden further.
There's going to be a steady drift rightward of decent people who see no other other choice. The establishment parties have nothing to say to them, and the centre right only offers more procrastination and timidity. They could be persuaded against voting for more radical parties, but the left will just call them fascists without attempting to understand their point of view or even acknowledge the problems.
Part of the reason the left does this is because the right has better arguments. The dogmatic multiculturalist slogans are an object of public ridicule. Diversity doesn't make us stronger. Different foods are not worth the grooming gangs. Multiculturalism isn't a "melting pot". It doesn't make us richer. FGM and cousin marriage isn't cultural enrichment. Every one of their Blairite slogans is based on a demonstrable lie.
Even more rational optimistic arguments are looking pretty thin right now. You could argue that most foreigners integrate and contribute, but the sheer scale of those who don't make the problems impossible to ignore. The obfuscation, whataboutery and misdirection doesn't work anymore.
Brits generally have an aversion to blood and soil nationalism because it all too readily embraces fascist ideas and collectivist economics, and ethno-nationalism is usually the ladder up to the slippery slope. But what we're seeing now is different. What's emerging is more a pragmatic realisation that we're heading into a national emergency where Britain can no longer function as a high trust, tolerant, democratic society - and that policy must address itself to the problems, however much it contradicts our more generous instincts.
As such, if the Tory party cannot recognise the direction of travel, and steadfastly refuses to move from the centre ground, then fascists will be the electoral beneficiary - and it will reach critical mass. It's not unthinkable. The BNP won a million votes in 2009 Euro elections. Their voters were just ordinary working class Brits who'd long been denied a voice. If they're given no other option, and the establishment parties are determined to chuck more petrol on the bonfire, then we are in dangerous territory. More so if the public begins to realise they can't vote their way out of national extinction. Our elites are playing with fire.
By the time the election comes around, I think the migration issue will have run its course. It is hard for the politicians and client media to keep everyone furious for that long and the continuous cynical conflation of the 30,000 brown boys in boats with the 800,000 net legitimate migrants is unravelling in the minds of most people. The impact of the £££s of foreign students, (education is an industry) and Hong Kongers in our city centres is positive and continues to drive regeneration and urban renewal contrary to the flat-footed efforts of the central govt. Think HS2 cancellation.
The election will be won or lost on the reality of the day-to-day life experiences for the greater majority of people. This is not the chaps in the channel, but the fall in the standard of living and the failure of the govt to deal with it or even address it. I am no socialist but addressing the decade of rising prices, stagnant wages, the uncertainty of employment, and the shift of rights from the worker to employer, the virtual removal of a social safety net, and general extreme maladministration will have more traction with the voter than the lazy racism of which is tempting the likes of Reform and friends. Voters are intelligent, mostly open-minded, and will vote to better themselves. They want the country to prosper and feel fooled by the false promises given to achieve Brexit (by the same people) and as the song goes they won't get fooled again.
I would like to continue believing in the common man, I include myself, and women and children's, sense of fair play. I don't believe the third generation Pakistani Brit at the corner shop likes students persecuting Jews in the street. Even when I was in the Forces I thought bombing people was wrong if only because it makes the attacked angry. The Blitz hardened our resolve.
There is a concerted effort now to undermine our way of life, a drip drip process led by the Left. It is subtle and insidious and has taken over the BBC, universities, Police, the Church, local government, the Civil Service and soon, Parliament. They are clever, good at it. The white hetero indigenous is treated like an unwanted minority. The mixed race gay almost has elevated status; white hetero BBC and Guardian staff are apologetic.
Where are the tough guy Colonels, Majors and Sgt Majors? The determined Corporals and Lieutenants? There must be some. Are they so old, decrepit or indifferent? A tide always turns. The only conclusion I see is that we of the centre and right are nowhere near angry enough. Perhaps we need to be bombed; have our computers, tablets and phones turned off ,sending us outside to blink in the daylight; to do something.