What we know is that a demand for lower cost technology based solutions will cost far more than expected by the time the MOD and Navy have procured the most expensive bespoke IT from contractors who enjoy an open ended meal ticket.
As an ex grunt this whole issue goes over my head but what I do know for sure are two things.
First that our defensive needs must be built around our foreign policy and a realistic analysis of the threat and second with our next major conflict consisting of serious civil unrest and worse brewing on our own shores clever bits of kit are not as important as well trained content soldiers and police effectively lead with basic equipment and any number of water cannons which are currently only deployed in Northern Ireland.
This enthusiasm for drones reminds me of the 1957 Sandys Defence White Paper predicting missiles would replace manned aircraft, army’s and leaving only the RN to continue.
Drones have 2 obvious weaknesses.
1) they need guiding whether through an operator or sensors. Both are jammable.
2) lasers and/or munitions can intercept and keep the cost of destroying a drone to below the cost of the drone itself.
Advances in drone technology will help the survival of drones, but they have the disadvantage of weight limitations (carrying sufficient ECM and power supply whilst being airborne).
Drones are difficult to detect but in an electronic battlefield easier to jam.
Pete, you are correct. We go to war with the equipment that we have and modify that equipment, quickly, as necessary. Missiles and bombs are not easy to modify but delivery equipment, A/C etc, is.
During the Falklands, Manufacturers couldn't do enough for the military as there was an overwhelming sense of patriotism. We cannot guarantee the same, next time around.
It seems to me that we are not putting enough consistent effort over a sensible time frame into our national defense. Missile defenses are, well, lacking, as I outlined in: https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-197340509 and other areas have significant problems: https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-194779254. Crewlessness, drones and AI are where we logically end-up https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-193357516 but it doesn't seem to me that the MOD procurement system has any capability to get us there in a sensible timescale and the politicians are, essentially, criminally negligent along with their chums in the civil service.
The problem with drones is that while the developer has the initial advantage in attack, inevitably the defender eventually develops their own drone technology and improves on it and again becomes the attacker. There is nothing to stop this merry-go-round. The key is defence and being one step ahead. That is where capability must be focussed. And at the same time, with a ground war we must be prepared to send in defence troops. I find the whole thing utterly terrifying.
When the previous governments (including Cameron's) were destroying our defence and attack capability (as they also did and the current government continues to do with policing) I was in despair. My message to Reform would be 'f**k welfare, all funds must first go to the defence of the Realm and its justice systems'. A start there will need 20 years of heavy investment. Without security, we have nothing.
The future of war is like nothing we have seen before. What is there to prevent a limited nuclear attack on the UK as a precursor to assess our response? Dad's Army would have a field day.
I thought the russians were about to invade the UK. It seems instead the Royal Navy wants to invade some other country. I miss to see how amphibius transport ships would be useful to defend the borders.
I instead totally see how these would be useful in partecipating to the criminal, absurd american adventurism abroad.
What we know is that a demand for lower cost technology based solutions will cost far more than expected by the time the MOD and Navy have procured the most expensive bespoke IT from contractors who enjoy an open ended meal ticket.
At least the Dutch might show us how to do It on budget and on time.
As an ex grunt this whole issue goes over my head but what I do know for sure are two things.
First that our defensive needs must be built around our foreign policy and a realistic analysis of the threat and second with our next major conflict consisting of serious civil unrest and worse brewing on our own shores clever bits of kit are not as important as well trained content soldiers and police effectively lead with basic equipment and any number of water cannons which are currently only deployed in Northern Ireland.
This enthusiasm for drones reminds me of the 1957 Sandys Defence White Paper predicting missiles would replace manned aircraft, army’s and leaving only the RN to continue.
Drones have 2 obvious weaknesses.
1) they need guiding whether through an operator or sensors. Both are jammable.
2) lasers and/or munitions can intercept and keep the cost of destroying a drone to below the cost of the drone itself.
Advances in drone technology will help the survival of drones, but they have the disadvantage of weight limitations (carrying sufficient ECM and power supply whilst being airborne).
Drones are difficult to detect but in an electronic battlefield easier to jam.
Pete, you are correct. We go to war with the equipment that we have and modify that equipment, quickly, as necessary. Missiles and bombs are not easy to modify but delivery equipment, A/C etc, is.
During the Falklands, Manufacturers couldn't do enough for the military as there was an overwhelming sense of patriotism. We cannot guarantee the same, next time around.
It seems to me that we are not putting enough consistent effort over a sensible time frame into our national defense. Missile defenses are, well, lacking, as I outlined in: https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-197340509 and other areas have significant problems: https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-194779254. Crewlessness, drones and AI are where we logically end-up https://substack.com/@dontarrestme/p-193357516 but it doesn't seem to me that the MOD procurement system has any capability to get us there in a sensible timescale and the politicians are, essentially, criminally negligent along with their chums in the civil service.
An excellent article, Pete. One of your best. I ended my 32 year RAF career at Waddington (51 Sqn spy plane), so loved the little ashtray story!
The problem with drones is that while the developer has the initial advantage in attack, inevitably the defender eventually develops their own drone technology and improves on it and again becomes the attacker. There is nothing to stop this merry-go-round. The key is defence and being one step ahead. That is where capability must be focussed. And at the same time, with a ground war we must be prepared to send in defence troops. I find the whole thing utterly terrifying.
When the previous governments (including Cameron's) were destroying our defence and attack capability (as they also did and the current government continues to do with policing) I was in despair. My message to Reform would be 'f**k welfare, all funds must first go to the defence of the Realm and its justice systems'. A start there will need 20 years of heavy investment. Without security, we have nothing.
The future of war is like nothing we have seen before. What is there to prevent a limited nuclear attack on the UK as a precursor to assess our response? Dad's Army would have a field day.
I thought the russians were about to invade the UK. It seems instead the Royal Navy wants to invade some other country. I miss to see how amphibius transport ships would be useful to defend the borders.
I instead totally see how these would be useful in partecipating to the criminal, absurd american adventurism abroad.