By 2060 or sooner, native Brits will become a minority in their own homeland. The birth-rate is collapsing. Not a lot is being done to prevent it. This is what is shaping the politics of the British right. This isn’t exclusively confined to the fringes of politics. It will be a matter of increasing urgency in the years to come.
We keep hearing about the collapse of liberalism but, for me, those cheering it on don't have much of an idea of what happens next. There's the usual guff about some kind of strong man, a "Lord Protector" to rule over us and save us from the forces of liberalism but seeing that only one man has achieved that in English history and his emergence was out of a pitched battle civil war between two well established aristocratic factions I'm struggling to see where the new "muh strong man" is going to come from. I can think of a couple of midwit supposedly right wing YouTubers who fancy the role...
Those who want a post-liberal (and I mean classical, not the American left wing variety) order always think the boot will never stamp on them. They're on the right side of muh strong man, they would never fall foul of a right wing post liberal leader...until they do. That's the thing about an illiberal dictator: Sooner or later they have their night of the long knives moment and that's where loyalists get dragged away protesting that they've always been loyal so why them?
So what does the post liberal order look like and how do we preserve our freedoms in it?
Indeed much could change when the public wake up from their slumber and start to DEMAND of government more power and a far greater say in how they are governed. When this happens they would do well to gather around these six demands that aim to improve our democracy turning our politicians into our servants instead of being our masters.
The public has consistently demanded lower immigration for well over 25 years. Later Andrew Neather's revelations came in 2009 ("rubbing the noses of the right in diversity" et al). Then came the EU membership referendum in 2016 where immigration levels were a key metric in the outcome. Then Boris won the 2019 election promising to "take back control" of immigration - before ramping immigration up to unprecedented levels where they remain to this day.
Let's not live in denial. Making demands of our politicians, regardless of the colour of their rosettes, appears to be marginally less effective than the monkeys demanding more bananas in London zoo.
For sure. If our political classes are prepared to punt the ball into the long grass over issues like the grooming gangs scandal, whilst quietly nobbling any appropriate outcome by appointing a biased investigation and judiciary, within the context of an increasingly apathetic electorate...
Even the piano wire is entirely manufactured in China these days
I am going to say some harsh things now, apologies. Who would care for these unwanted children? For that is what they are. If contraception had worked then abortion would not have been needed. If unmarried sex had not taken place then many of the abortions would not have been needed. How many foetuses were profoundly disabled? It is never an easy decision. We need to improve the conditions where it is easier to want children.
That tells you exactly what will happen when welfare systems fail due to economic collapse.
Some of us remember what happened during the fall of the iron curtain in Romania. Ceaucescu was shot on live TV. Then came the news media reports from Romanian "orphanages". If you know, you know.
I remember it. I remember filling gift-wrapped shoe boxes with little presents and sending them to Romania for Christmas. Even Absolutely Fabulous worked in champagne socialist Edina adopting six orphans. The conditions they were kept in were terrible, but there was no money and nobody to care for them.
There is a hidden issue that affects many women, endometriosis. I have three daughters all with the condition. Doctors are attempting to blame processed food. Whether this is accurate or not, a Western lifestyle seems to be linked and I doubt there is honesty about the percentage of British women that are suffering with the condition. Endo, and the NHS’s demeaning treatment of sufferers genuinely sums up the gender gap in NHS treatment. If it is processed food that causes this then I suspect it will have been by design. No amount of encouraging these women to have children will work.
Meh. If the average wage from a job with average security could support an average rent/mortgage and keep up with average price rises, then I suspect birth rates would improve as if by magic.
The whole of the west is undergoing its lost few decades; the Japanese experience shows us this is what happens when accommodation prices spiral out of control.
We have a stark choice: House price crash and remigration or enjoy early mornings punctuated by the call to Mecca.
That opening few minutes of Idiocracy is hilarious - didn't realise Mike Judge had made a feature film that had nothing to do with his favourite creations.
Honestly I think we're too far gone for all sorts of reasons. Sorry for sounding gloomy but this often has a 'bald blokes fighting over a comb' feel to it...
I find it both bizarre and worrying that the Right is not addressing the issue of Islam. Even Pete’s deep dive above avoids all mention of Islam. We use euphemisms like ‘third world’ or more pointedly; ‘other cultures that don’t share our view of women’. But consistently Islam is avoided.
We jump up and down if we smell Chinese or Russian influence in our politics - yet we’ve welcomed Islam as if it’s an exotic religion to be platformed alongside the befuddled CofE. We need a grownup willingness to address some searching questions regarding Islam - such as; is this really just another religion or something altogether more sinister? Where does a Muslim’s true loyalty lie? How does Islam use and abuse democracy throughout the world? Should a Muslim ever hold office in the UK? What is the objective of Islam? etc, etc. A wise politician and monarch would have asked these questions and many more before the first cohort of Muslim’s arrived in the UK. One thing is certain, Islam will shape the future of the UK and still has an open door.
International investors loan money to profligate western governments by buying bonds (essentially IOUs).
The "interest rate" on these bonds (called the "coupon") is determined by that government's ability to forcibly extract money from their hapless cash-cow serf population. That rate is a direct measure of how risky the loan is (like any other loan).
A drop in population therefore causes government borrowing to become more expensive. If that government is sufficiently indebted, then a debt default (most likely by inflation) becomes inevitable. In the meantime, the overall debt increases according to the inevitable effect of simple exponential arithmetic (see https://youtu.be/e_VpyoAXpA8 for an original take on this).
Debt defaults potentially lead to "unpleasant outcomes" for government ministers as welfare stops, police don't get paid, people go hungry etc.
Therefore, if it isn't quite obvious by now, and whoever is elected, the enrichment will continue unabated. Any civil unrest will result in an extremely robust paramilitary response (think 1984 miner's strike) followed by a disproportionately robust punishment (think Lucy Connolly). Any laughable notion of the police or military refusing to support their government paymasters won't last long.
The biggest buyers of government bonds are institutional investors. Banks. Pension funds. Insurance companies.
It's seen as a safer investment than stock markets, particularly in indebted western economies. Fund managers will lose their jobs if they lose money, but if they're repaid in a devalued currency it's someone else's problem.
So every deposit, every additional voluntary contribution, every REIT, every premium is us paying for the privilege of being culturally enriched.
The delicious vindaloo and doner kebabs more than make up for it though
Trying to be optimistic for a bit, at least over Christmas. We have three more years of Labour testing progressive theories to destruction. The economy stutters. Unemployment increases. Infrastructure buckles. A major terrorist incident. There is a major shift to the right at the next election. Refom have some good policies and can blame their predecessors for the economic mess they inherit. Civic nationalism and Christianity just about hold the social glue together. The BBC is disestablished. The education curriculum is revised and the universities forced to go private (apart from polytechnics).
This demographic reality check is sobering. The point about any pro-natalist policy potentially backfiring by incentivizing third-world births more than native ones is something I hadn't fully considred before but it makes total sense. I've been following similar dynamics in France and Germany, and the policy paralysis is real. The welfare state logic just can't reconcile demographic survival with egalitarian principles, so governments end up doing nothing while the clock ticks down.
For purely selfish reasons, I need you to stay in the political game. You are one of a tiny number of beacons keeping me grounded and helping me navigate through the nonsense when frustration and anger build up.
Years ago I believed any sectarianism would be akin to NI
I was a civil servant (for my ills) and had to fight tooth and nail to keep disabled staff in employment.
It is no coincidence that there are so few physically disabled staff in the civil service.
The attitude amongst managers was dire.
Yet the civil service claimed to have a high proportion of disabled staff, by listing those with comparatively minor but long term health issues like gout as disabled.
I remember a meeting of managers in which a senior manager stated any staff with health issue which affected attendance ie cancer had to be dismissed.
Not one manager present protested.
Ironically the senior manager taking the meeting got lung cancer.
Extremely worrying times even for a boomer who won’t be around to suffer the excesses of Prof Betz’s forecasts - which I agree with. It’s going to take something incredible to make these white Liberal housewives to ditch Ed Davey and tack hard to the right. That’s a vicious civil war maybe or progressive Islamism rolling back women’s rights hard won over 100 years. It may be too late but I suspect if the worse happens and Britain collapses many of the immigrants will fuck off back to warmer climes where food and a basic standard of life is easier to come by. Maybe we will see a recycling of the Industrial Revolution?
We keep hearing about the collapse of liberalism but, for me, those cheering it on don't have much of an idea of what happens next. There's the usual guff about some kind of strong man, a "Lord Protector" to rule over us and save us from the forces of liberalism but seeing that only one man has achieved that in English history and his emergence was out of a pitched battle civil war between two well established aristocratic factions I'm struggling to see where the new "muh strong man" is going to come from. I can think of a couple of midwit supposedly right wing YouTubers who fancy the role...
Those who want a post-liberal (and I mean classical, not the American left wing variety) order always think the boot will never stamp on them. They're on the right side of muh strong man, they would never fall foul of a right wing post liberal leader...until they do. That's the thing about an illiberal dictator: Sooner or later they have their night of the long knives moment and that's where loyalists get dragged away protesting that they've always been loyal so why them?
So what does the post liberal order look like and how do we preserve our freedoms in it?
Indeed much could change when the public wake up from their slumber and start to DEMAND of government more power and a far greater say in how they are governed. When this happens they would do well to gather around these six demands that aim to improve our democracy turning our politicians into our servants instead of being our masters.
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
The public has consistently demanded lower immigration for well over 25 years. Later Andrew Neather's revelations came in 2009 ("rubbing the noses of the right in diversity" et al). Then came the EU membership referendum in 2016 where immigration levels were a key metric in the outcome. Then Boris won the 2019 election promising to "take back control" of immigration - before ramping immigration up to unprecedented levels where they remain to this day.
Let's not live in denial. Making demands of our politicians, regardless of the colour of their rosettes, appears to be marginally less effective than the monkeys demanding more bananas in London zoo.
The monkeys currently have a better chance than we do.
For sure. If our political classes are prepared to punt the ball into the long grass over issues like the grooming gangs scandal, whilst quietly nobbling any appropriate outcome by appointing a biased investigation and judiciary, within the context of an increasingly apathetic electorate...
Even the piano wire is entirely manufactured in China these days
Two hundred and twenty thousand abortions annually do not assist this country's birth rate.
Prof Dutton advises that in 2018 almost 90% of the population of England would not have existed in 1700 due to poor immune systems and mutant genes.
Yet Parkinson in Left foot Forward lists 100 brilliant men and women of every discipline born in the century between 1750 and 1850 in the UK
Many elections are consistent in the discrepancies found in the voting rolls and devious accounting in Western hemispheres countries plebiscites
I am going to say some harsh things now, apologies. Who would care for these unwanted children? For that is what they are. If contraception had worked then abortion would not have been needed. If unmarried sex had not taken place then many of the abortions would not have been needed. How many foetuses were profoundly disabled? It is never an easy decision. We need to improve the conditions where it is easier to want children.
That tells you exactly what will happen when welfare systems fail due to economic collapse.
Some of us remember what happened during the fall of the iron curtain in Romania. Ceaucescu was shot on live TV. Then came the news media reports from Romanian "orphanages". If you know, you know.
Of course, it couldn't *possibly* happen here.
I remember it. I remember filling gift-wrapped shoe boxes with little presents and sending them to Romania for Christmas. Even Absolutely Fabulous worked in champagne socialist Edina adopting six orphans. The conditions they were kept in were terrible, but there was no money and nobody to care for them.
Plus ça change
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3r8c8h/yvette_cooper_cuts_off_interview_when_pressed_on/
There is a hidden issue that affects many women, endometriosis. I have three daughters all with the condition. Doctors are attempting to blame processed food. Whether this is accurate or not, a Western lifestyle seems to be linked and I doubt there is honesty about the percentage of British women that are suffering with the condition. Endo, and the NHS’s demeaning treatment of sufferers genuinely sums up the gender gap in NHS treatment. If it is processed food that causes this then I suspect it will have been by design. No amount of encouraging these women to have children will work.
Young people are having kids, it’s just that half of them are being killed before birth.
Yep
I know abortion is a touchy subject, but as far as I'm concerned it's basing the value of a life on its convenience.
With the wide availability of contraception today, there is no need for an unwanted pregnancy outside of a criminal act.
It's a 60's/70's argument brought into the modern day where it's no longer relevant.
*waiting for the backlash
Meh. If the average wage from a job with average security could support an average rent/mortgage and keep up with average price rises, then I suspect birth rates would improve as if by magic.
The whole of the west is undergoing its lost few decades; the Japanese experience shows us this is what happens when accommodation prices spiral out of control.
We have a stark choice: House price crash and remigration or enjoy early mornings punctuated by the call to Mecca.
I had to fire up my VPN to read this even though a debit card is registered on my account.
That opening few minutes of Idiocracy is hilarious - didn't realise Mike Judge had made a feature film that had nothing to do with his favourite creations.
Honestly I think we're too far gone for all sorts of reasons. Sorry for sounding gloomy but this often has a 'bald blokes fighting over a comb' feel to it...
I find it both bizarre and worrying that the Right is not addressing the issue of Islam. Even Pete’s deep dive above avoids all mention of Islam. We use euphemisms like ‘third world’ or more pointedly; ‘other cultures that don’t share our view of women’. But consistently Islam is avoided.
We jump up and down if we smell Chinese or Russian influence in our politics - yet we’ve welcomed Islam as if it’s an exotic religion to be platformed alongside the befuddled CofE. We need a grownup willingness to address some searching questions regarding Islam - such as; is this really just another religion or something altogether more sinister? Where does a Muslim’s true loyalty lie? How does Islam use and abuse democracy throughout the world? Should a Muslim ever hold office in the UK? What is the objective of Islam? etc, etc. A wise politician and monarch would have asked these questions and many more before the first cohort of Muslim’s arrived in the UK. One thing is certain, Islam will shape the future of the UK and still has an open door.
Pure coincidence of couse, and one would have to be far-right to disagree (ask Lucy Connolly):
https://organiser.org/2025/02/02/275976/world/the-civil-service-muslim-network-scandal-the-threat-of-islamic-fundamentalism-in-governance/
International investors loan money to profligate western governments by buying bonds (essentially IOUs).
The "interest rate" on these bonds (called the "coupon") is determined by that government's ability to forcibly extract money from their hapless cash-cow serf population. That rate is a direct measure of how risky the loan is (like any other loan).
A drop in population therefore causes government borrowing to become more expensive. If that government is sufficiently indebted, then a debt default (most likely by inflation) becomes inevitable. In the meantime, the overall debt increases according to the inevitable effect of simple exponential arithmetic (see https://youtu.be/e_VpyoAXpA8 for an original take on this).
Debt defaults potentially lead to "unpleasant outcomes" for government ministers as welfare stops, police don't get paid, people go hungry etc.
Therefore, if it isn't quite obvious by now, and whoever is elected, the enrichment will continue unabated. Any civil unrest will result in an extremely robust paramilitary response (think 1984 miner's strike) followed by a disproportionately robust punishment (think Lucy Connolly). Any laughable notion of the police or military refusing to support their government paymasters won't last long.
And yet they import leeches not cash cows
The biggest buyers of government bonds are institutional investors. Banks. Pension funds. Insurance companies.
It's seen as a safer investment than stock markets, particularly in indebted western economies. Fund managers will lose their jobs if they lose money, but if they're repaid in a devalued currency it's someone else's problem.
So every deposit, every additional voluntary contribution, every REIT, every premium is us paying for the privilege of being culturally enriched.
The delicious vindaloo and doner kebabs more than make up for it though
There is an almost perfect parallel between abortion and the reduction in children in English/Welsh families.
The replacement rate for for English/Welsh families is about 2.3 the current rate is 1.4 - however if you add in aborted babies the rate is 2.2.
The British population is deliberately being reduced.
The new abortion laws will further act to reduce the rate of kids in families.
The extermination of old people with yet more new laws will save the exchequer billions.
Added to savings from state pensions and care costs following the massacre of the old during the covid flu outbreak and you get the picture.
Few people are willing to acknowledge the wipe out though.
Old people, you say? Add the disabled, the incarcerated, and the mentally ill for starters.
https://jacobin.com/2024/05/canada-euthanasia-poor-disabled-health-care
Trying to be optimistic for a bit, at least over Christmas. We have three more years of Labour testing progressive theories to destruction. The economy stutters. Unemployment increases. Infrastructure buckles. A major terrorist incident. There is a major shift to the right at the next election. Refom have some good policies and can blame their predecessors for the economic mess they inherit. Civic nationalism and Christianity just about hold the social glue together. The BBC is disestablished. The education curriculum is revised and the universities forced to go private (apart from polytechnics).
This demographic reality check is sobering. The point about any pro-natalist policy potentially backfiring by incentivizing third-world births more than native ones is something I hadn't fully considred before but it makes total sense. I've been following similar dynamics in France and Germany, and the policy paralysis is real. The welfare state logic just can't reconcile demographic survival with egalitarian principles, so governments end up doing nothing while the clock ticks down.
Thanks pete for another great article.
For purely selfish reasons, I need you to stay in the political game. You are one of a tiny number of beacons keeping me grounded and helping me navigate through the nonsense when frustration and anger build up.
Years ago I believed any sectarianism would be akin to NI
Now I worry that it'll be more like the Balkans.
Keep an eye on France, it's probably a year ahead of the UK. Plan accordingly
I was a civil servant (for my ills) and had to fight tooth and nail to keep disabled staff in employment.
It is no coincidence that there are so few physically disabled staff in the civil service.
The attitude amongst managers was dire.
Yet the civil service claimed to have a high proportion of disabled staff, by listing those with comparatively minor but long term health issues like gout as disabled.
I remember a meeting of managers in which a senior manager stated any staff with health issue which affected attendance ie cancer had to be dismissed.
Not one manager present protested.
Ironically the senior manager taking the meeting got lung cancer.
She lasted 3 years, no sacking there.
What goes around comes around.
Saved from right wing slop? Sure, watch the local elections in May ‘26 and the general election whenever that is- hopefully before Führages josses it.
Extremely worrying times even for a boomer who won’t be around to suffer the excesses of Prof Betz’s forecasts - which I agree with. It’s going to take something incredible to make these white Liberal housewives to ditch Ed Davey and tack hard to the right. That’s a vicious civil war maybe or progressive Islamism rolling back women’s rights hard won over 100 years. It may be too late but I suspect if the worse happens and Britain collapses many of the immigrants will fuck off back to warmer climes where food and a basic standard of life is easier to come by. Maybe we will see a recycling of the Industrial Revolution?
Going to Pete for a ray of sunshine. A true Christmas miracle! 😂