I don't disagree with anything in the analysis, save for the very last part: I consider it highly unlikely that the ECHR will change their approach. If people were inclined to treat clear and present dangers seriously, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Any institution with disproportionate levers of power becomes, ipso facto, a target for capture. To the extent that the ECHR allows national policy choices to be overridden, it will be seen as exactly that, and those with specific policy preferences will act accordingly. The degree to which it can be used as such is not symmetrical, however, as the entire framework the ECHR is situated in is more suited to promoting a certain suite of policies than others. Moreover, we cannot ignore the fact that support for specific policies is not evenly distributed throughout society—which is one of the reasons why things have gotten the way they have—so we must account for what sort of beliefs are widespread in the milieux ECHR judges are drawn from, and inhabit. These have shown themselves highly resistant to changing views, even in the face of overwhelming evidence.
What you describe is akin to a house of cards held up by legal paperwork. The question is not if it will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions but when
ECHR withdrawal proposals have usually centered around illegal immegration, this is actually a lesser issue as may other European countries are now coming under the same pressure, so it will be reform or die. However, the assymetric treatment of UK millitary and IRA is very much a GFA issue and I can't see any compromise that would appease Unionists if the opportunity for agreement collapse arises. They were burnt with GFA and then with the Windsor Framework, the next few weeks needs really skilled diplomacy, completely lacking with this government, I can just hear it now .... "Mandy all is forgiven, where are you, we might have a job just suited to you" ;)
It strikes me nothing significant will change for the better, undoing the last 30 years of extremely poor sloppy governance, unless and until we get a decent Right of Centre government with a large majority and mandate.
Then they can use their majority in our sovereign parliament to pass laws that make the likes of the ECHR null and void thus avoiding endless months or even years of legal wrangling.
On the other hand that might be wishful thinking so if anyone has a better idea feel free to add your POV!!
Given the current demographic in the UK, we are now less likely than ever to see 'a decent Right of Centre government with a large majority and mandate' in future. We are going to be stuck in a doom loop of multi-parties, including a sizeable muslim contingent, which will never be reconciled to a right of centre government.
No. I was just replying to the minor point that you made.
But on the point of sovereignty, I agree that we need a government that is sovereign and which doesn't sign up to these international accords. Will we get one though?
It’s very tempting to just offer decent homes and compensation to any NI resident who wants to come to the UK then hand the landmass over to Eire, establish a border and have done with it. Surely it would be cheaper and less complicated in the long term.
That is the most likely option but that taking place without violence looks increasingly unlikely as massive demographic change on both sides of the border has turned the heat up hugely. The unionists have an instinctive siege mentality and its charged more now than at any time since the GFA
Y'know I admire the way the Irish (N or S) just won't put up with shit forever. They are (jointly) the only hope (too ironically to mention) for GB hobbitses
I spent many years working in both the Republic and NI. I thought the same as you, Fiona, but if I ever had the effrontery to discuss it with anyone from NI they made it plain that I was talking through the lower half of my body.
I don't disagree with anything in the analysis, save for the very last part: I consider it highly unlikely that the ECHR will change their approach. If people were inclined to treat clear and present dangers seriously, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Any institution with disproportionate levers of power becomes, ipso facto, a target for capture. To the extent that the ECHR allows national policy choices to be overridden, it will be seen as exactly that, and those with specific policy preferences will act accordingly. The degree to which it can be used as such is not symmetrical, however, as the entire framework the ECHR is situated in is more suited to promoting a certain suite of policies than others. Moreover, we cannot ignore the fact that support for specific policies is not evenly distributed throughout society—which is one of the reasons why things have gotten the way they have—so we must account for what sort of beliefs are widespread in the milieux ECHR judges are drawn from, and inhabit. These have shown themselves highly resistant to changing views, even in the face of overwhelming evidence.
What you describe is akin to a house of cards held up by legal paperwork. The question is not if it will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions but when
ECHR withdrawal proposals have usually centered around illegal immegration, this is actually a lesser issue as may other European countries are now coming under the same pressure, so it will be reform or die. However, the assymetric treatment of UK millitary and IRA is very much a GFA issue and I can't see any compromise that would appease Unionists if the opportunity for agreement collapse arises. They were burnt with GFA and then with the Windsor Framework, the next few weeks needs really skilled diplomacy, completely lacking with this government, I can just hear it now .... "Mandy all is forgiven, where are you, we might have a job just suited to you" ;)
It strikes me nothing significant will change for the better, undoing the last 30 years of extremely poor sloppy governance, unless and until we get a decent Right of Centre government with a large majority and mandate.
Then they can use their majority in our sovereign parliament to pass laws that make the likes of the ECHR null and void thus avoiding endless months or even years of legal wrangling.
On the other hand that might be wishful thinking so if anyone has a better idea feel free to add your POV!!
Given the current demographic in the UK, we are now less likely than ever to see 'a decent Right of Centre government with a large majority and mandate' in future. We are going to be stuck in a doom loop of multi-parties, including a sizeable muslim contingent, which will never be reconciled to a right of centre government.
There is certainly worse to come but remember there are many more of 'us' than 'them' and the worm will eventually turn!
Sadly, I feel that it is wishful thinking. I see the future steps as:
1. National debt balloon bursts.
2. Cost of living balloons.
3. People begin to starve as they cannot afford food.
4. Riots in modern day 'Peterloo'.
5. Army called in, but refuse to go.
6. Anarchy, then after a few years, adoption of THA, of course!
You have rather missed my point as my question was whether you could make the ECHR null and void through passing a bill through our parliament?
No. I was just replying to the minor point that you made.
But on the point of sovereignty, I agree that we need a government that is sovereign and which doesn't sign up to these international accords. Will we get one though?
You still miss the point!!!!!
I want to know if a law passed through our parliament can null and void the ECHR without us needing to formally instigate leaving it?
I think Pete implies we can and leaving the ECHR is a Red Herring?
Yes, parliament can pass such a law.
I suppose that I was making a wider point.
https://metropolized.substack.com/p/the-preparedness-predicament-in-the
https://youtu.be/wr68-6smT64
https://metropolized.substack.com/p/foundational-preparedness
It’s very tempting to just offer decent homes and compensation to any NI resident who wants to come to the UK then hand the landmass over to Eire, establish a border and have done with it. Surely it would be cheaper and less complicated in the long term.
You don’t understand how unionists think. Not a single unionist resident of NI would accept that.
They join Eire then. Ultimately they may do anyway, due to demographics.
That is the most likely option but that taking place without violence looks increasingly unlikely as massive demographic change on both sides of the border has turned the heat up hugely. The unionists have an instinctive siege mentality and its charged more now than at any time since the GFA
Fireworks then😬
Y'know I admire the way the Irish (N or S) just won't put up with shit forever. They are (jointly) the only hope (too ironically to mention) for GB hobbitses
yeah this is all going to go completely tits up within the next decade
I spent many years working in both the Republic and NI. I thought the same as you, Fiona, but if I ever had the effrontery to discuss it with anyone from NI they made it plain that I was talking through the lower half of my body.