Are we in for a Kemi come-back?

Today Kemi Badenoch gave a speech on the matter of the ECHR. I urge you to watch it all. In fairness to her, it's a good speech. In it she said, "I have yet to see a clear and coherent way to fix this within our current legal structure. But, I won't commit my party to leaving the ECHR or other treaties without a clear plan to do so, and without a full understanding of all the consequences. - I want us to fully understand and debate what the unintended consequences of that decision might be, and understand what issues will still remain unresolved even if we leave. It is very important for our country that we get this right".

That part is music to my ears. This is a world apart from the slopulism of Reform, and it is encouraging that this work is being done. Exactly what I demanded of Ben Habib and Reform - to no avail. Very interesting too that she mentioned the Aarhus Convention. It's clear that there is real thinking going on here. She's not bluffing. I will be VERY interested to see what her policy commission comes up with. My criticism is that this work should already have been done - especially with the legal expertise she has at her disposal. It's complex, but it's not rocket science.

When this work is complete, Badenoch will have a decision to make as to whether she is willing to take on this fight. If the work is up to scratch, it will show that there are serious questions around the Northern Ireland settlement, the TCA and withdrawal agreements, and broader constitutional implications that require we repeal the HRA, bin the Refugee Convention and leave a number of treaties that many haven't even heard of. This is an all or none kind of deal. There's no middle way here. It is equal in scale and scope to Brexit. In many ways it is Brexit's unfinished business.

If she decides to pull on this thread, she is then all-in on exactly the kind of "great repeal" that Reform should be pushing. If she commits to it then Badenoch is the real "reform" candidate. If there's a plan on the table, she is owed a fair hearing.

If she does commit, then Robert Jenrick must stand shoulder to shoulder with her, pitch in, and dial back his never-ending leadership bid. If she's up for the fight then good on her. If not, though, Jenrick must be prepared to destroy her. This is make or break for Badenoch. If she concludes that leaving the ECHR (and the subsequent repeals) simply isn't worth it, and believes there are fudges, then she is completely ducking the fight, and has no real interest in grasping the thistle. On that basis, she must be removed.

I'm of the view that the Tory party cannot be taken seriously unless there is an explicit commitment to leaving the ECHR, and even if it does, it will have much work to do in order to rebuild trust. To do that, this grand plan needs to be detailed, comprehensive, and the confidence issue on which Badenoch stands. It must be her "back me or sack me" moment, and she must crush the dissenters in her own party. If she can do that, she has my complete attention.

This, of course, is the speech Farage should have already delivered. If he had done so ten months ago, he would have the answers by now, and would have sidelined Badenoch. Reform would be seen as a credible proposition. Farage has made a serious blunder here, and has ceded territory to the Tories. With Reform still lacking credibility and purpose, Badenoch of all people could be the one to fill the void. Stranger things have happened.