I think some degree of civil war is inevitable. It’s probably already happening inside the Muslim enclaves where no go areas and policing by consent are already happening. Yet another rape of a white woman in Bournemouth yesterday by an unnamed man or men will lead inevitably to empty streets and vigilanteism. And when you throw in the dire state of the economy we are in serious shtuck.
Serious state of the economy? Oh yes. Rishi's answer to the daily problem was to throw £11bn at it. Starmer's answer is to increase NI, electricity prices, business taxes and the minimum wage and then Labour wonders why small business are in total almost collapse. Add throwing money at welfare, and the destruction of the economy started under Rishi, will soon be complete.
Hang on mate. I’m certainly not defending any of the previous Conservative leaders. I’d argue the destruction of the economy began under Brown’s attempts to get workers hooked on in-work benefits. It’s led to permanently depressed wages and zero productivity. Tory PMs from Cameron to May to Boris and Sunak have done bugger all to address benefits or productivity. The only party talking about benefits and productivity are Reform.
I don’t know Farage like some of his detractors on here do. What you and others say about him is worrying as I don’t see a future for the UK past 2029 if the left end up in power after the next GE. Labour will lurch further left under their next useless PM and there’ll be a gigantic fuck up in Wales under Plaid. They could end up in a coalition with the SNP, Greens and LDs. If it’s not Farage leading the way back then it’s nobody on the right. However much we like Lowe it won’t be him as you know and the Tories are badly damaged maybe beyond repair. Get Reform in and hope for the best sounds better to me than the alternative.
I see where Peter is coming from, but any prediction is incomplete without an analysis of the Restore Party’s effect on the future of UK politics.
Of course any analysis is dependent on the timescale.
A Labour collapse too soon leaves Restore behind.
But if Labour manage to struggle on for another year or more the position of Restore as an effective party becomes much stronger whilst the Tory’s (in particular) and Reform to a lesser extent, lose votes.
I've said it many times here and on Pete's father's blog Turbulent Times that thing will have to get a whole lot worse before they get better and we start the long hard slog to recover our once great Nation.
I also believe that the 'people' will have to lead the charge and demand changes to our governance that genuinely improves democratic accountability which must turn our politicians into our servants instead of our masters.
In 2012 Pete's father and I set up The Harrogate Agenda and IMO nothing yet gets close to producing a template that will improve our governance and democracy.
This is why the elites aren't too bothered about populist parties, they know they will not be able to gather enough votes to enacted meaninful change. Expect politics like Italy's perpetual no overall control, stasis.
Reform are saying they're going to smash the uniparty by becoming the actual uniparty. Is this not obvious to everyone?
If I thought they had a conservative ethos and were generally right wing I'd treat them with more respect and consideration but Braverman is drifting to the Left, Tice is setting up home on the Left (as long as he can keep his tax lite home in Dubai and be an MP), Yusuf is nothing more than Reform's answer to Alastair Campbell and Danny Kruger seems sidelined in seclusion, working on a policy document only James Orr will read and spouting weird nonsense. To have been sidelined by one party is bad enough, to be sidelined by two means there's something wrong about Kruger that others detect. How can I vote for that mess? No, I will not hold my nose and vote for Reform.
And then there's Restore. A stout yeoman of England being propped up by weirdo right wing podcasters and online commentators. I think Lowe sees himself as an Oliver Cromwell figure and half of his upper echelon are Cromwellian republicans and the other half are trad Catholic reactionaries who want a Stuart restoration. I suspect Connor Tomlinson would ban dancing if he got the chance.
Peter Hitchens said that the Conservative Party needs to be destroyed to allow a true conservative party to emerge. Well, the Conservatives are nearly destroyed but no new replacement conservative or right wing party has emerged. Hitchens is wrong on this; if you destroy the Conservatives it won't be an authentic right wing party will take its place, it's that ANYTHING can take its place.
I've a horrible feeling that Starmer & Labour being in the position they're in will likely coalesce around the Greens /Lib/SNP/PC and forcefully take us back in to the EU via the Customs Union, The Single Market and FoM. All without a referendum. Starmer can do this with current Parliamentary proceedings via Henry VIII clauses.
Most Labour/Green/Libs voters believe in this BS.
Herein lies The/a defining meme that could actually make a Tory/Reform government come about. It might not come about easily in that Starmer couldn't give a feck about demos or a new referendum on joining a new EU whereby the UK would have its veto removed and Article 50 put into abeyance for 50.years. Joining the euro would be de rigour and a cost of associate membership.
If Starmer had the balls to go full on membership or even associate membership ( with the euro) this would /could lead to a muchly deserved coalition government of the right.
John, I think you are correct about that coalition after the next election. A nightmare for sure. However I don’t think that Henry VIII powers could be used to rejoin even the Single Market. Mainly because the EU will want some kind of treaty that is water tight and can’t be undone at the election after. The EU wants countries who are committed to staying in and not one which has already left once and could do so again. Henry VIII powers are the UK’s equivalent to Presidential executive orders. Easy to put in place and easy to remove. Unlike primary legislation.
Simon - you & I are both old enough to know that the EU can effectively create any treaty it likes ( With a 3rd country) - three of the reasons why I think a new form of associateship could be offered to the UK is, per above a) we'd have no veto rights b) Article 50 wouldn't be on offer to us - a new treaty would exclude its use for say 50 years to ensure compliance c) we'd be fast tracked into the euro to ensure a second level of irreversible compliance.
The more important questions - Starmer would/could sign up to such excruciatingly painful conditions relatively easily - the Greens/Libs/SNP /PC would willingly sign up to effective ' Hotel California ' clause' - such a Treaty, even with new Tory/Reform government would be difficult to unstitch.
Member states would love the UK to be trussed and bound - not least to prevent us ever daring to gain a competitive advantage again. Keep your enemies closer and more tightly bound than your friends.
Depressing but the reality for history proves we never learn the lessons from it and a nation in decline has to reach the bottom before it rises again when the people need to demand these changes to our governance and democracy.
Looking at the turnout in my area, between about 35 and 50%, the voters already know it is an unfillable vacuum. When considering that most voting is by post these days, it isn't even worth walking down to the post office to send the form, the situation is so dire.
I think some degree of civil war is inevitable. It’s probably already happening inside the Muslim enclaves where no go areas and policing by consent are already happening. Yet another rape of a white woman in Bournemouth yesterday by an unnamed man or men will lead inevitably to empty streets and vigilanteism. And when you throw in the dire state of the economy we are in serious shtuck.
Serious state of the economy? Oh yes. Rishi's answer to the daily problem was to throw £11bn at it. Starmer's answer is to increase NI, electricity prices, business taxes and the minimum wage and then Labour wonders why small business are in total almost collapse. Add throwing money at welfare, and the destruction of the economy started under Rishi, will soon be complete.
Hang on mate. I’m certainly not defending any of the previous Conservative leaders. I’d argue the destruction of the economy began under Brown’s attempts to get workers hooked on in-work benefits. It’s led to permanently depressed wages and zero productivity. Tory PMs from Cameron to May to Boris and Sunak have done bugger all to address benefits or productivity. The only party talking about benefits and productivity are Reform.
I agree with all you write except about Reform. I worked with UKIP in its early days and worry about Farage's priorities.
I don’t know Farage like some of his detractors on here do. What you and others say about him is worrying as I don’t see a future for the UK past 2029 if the left end up in power after the next GE. Labour will lurch further left under their next useless PM and there’ll be a gigantic fuck up in Wales under Plaid. They could end up in a coalition with the SNP, Greens and LDs. If it’s not Farage leading the way back then it’s nobody on the right. However much we like Lowe it won’t be him as you know and the Tories are badly damaged maybe beyond repair. Get Reform in and hope for the best sounds better to me than the alternative.
Yes, I agree but it is a little like the old joke:
"What do you want in your tea? Strychnine or cyanide?"
I see where Peter is coming from, but any prediction is incomplete without an analysis of the Restore Party’s effect on the future of UK politics.
Of course any analysis is dependent on the timescale.
A Labour collapse too soon leaves Restore behind.
But if Labour manage to struggle on for another year or more the position of Restore as an effective party becomes much stronger whilst the Tory’s (in particular) and Reform to a lesser extent, lose votes.
I've said it many times here and on Pete's father's blog Turbulent Times that thing will have to get a whole lot worse before they get better and we start the long hard slog to recover our once great Nation.
I also believe that the 'people' will have to lead the charge and demand changes to our governance that genuinely improves democratic accountability which must turn our politicians into our servants instead of our masters.
In 2012 Pete's father and I set up The Harrogate Agenda and IMO nothing yet gets close to producing a template that will improve our governance and democracy.
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
This is why the elites aren't too bothered about populist parties, they know they will not be able to gather enough votes to enacted meaninful change. Expect politics like Italy's perpetual no overall control, stasis.
This is a good and accurate analysis. I wish it wasn't.
Absolutely spot on, Pete. My feelings/thoughts exactly.
Reform are saying they're going to smash the uniparty by becoming the actual uniparty. Is this not obvious to everyone?
If I thought they had a conservative ethos and were generally right wing I'd treat them with more respect and consideration but Braverman is drifting to the Left, Tice is setting up home on the Left (as long as he can keep his tax lite home in Dubai and be an MP), Yusuf is nothing more than Reform's answer to Alastair Campbell and Danny Kruger seems sidelined in seclusion, working on a policy document only James Orr will read and spouting weird nonsense. To have been sidelined by one party is bad enough, to be sidelined by two means there's something wrong about Kruger that others detect. How can I vote for that mess? No, I will not hold my nose and vote for Reform.
And then there's Restore. A stout yeoman of England being propped up by weirdo right wing podcasters and online commentators. I think Lowe sees himself as an Oliver Cromwell figure and half of his upper echelon are Cromwellian republicans and the other half are trad Catholic reactionaries who want a Stuart restoration. I suspect Connor Tomlinson would ban dancing if he got the chance.
Peter Hitchens said that the Conservative Party needs to be destroyed to allow a true conservative party to emerge. Well, the Conservatives are nearly destroyed but no new replacement conservative or right wing party has emerged. Hitchens is wrong on this; if you destroy the Conservatives it won't be an authentic right wing party will take its place, it's that ANYTHING can take its place.
‘There’s no real plan for what comes next' ?
I think there is. The destruction of Britain, including its political infrastructure, is just part the opening stages.
It doesn’t matter who gets into government, the supra national plan moves ever forward.
I've a horrible feeling that Starmer & Labour being in the position they're in will likely coalesce around the Greens /Lib/SNP/PC and forcefully take us back in to the EU via the Customs Union, The Single Market and FoM. All without a referendum. Starmer can do this with current Parliamentary proceedings via Henry VIII clauses.
Most Labour/Green/Libs voters believe in this BS.
Herein lies The/a defining meme that could actually make a Tory/Reform government come about. It might not come about easily in that Starmer couldn't give a feck about demos or a new referendum on joining a new EU whereby the UK would have its veto removed and Article 50 put into abeyance for 50.years. Joining the euro would be de rigour and a cost of associate membership.
If Starmer had the balls to go full on membership or even associate membership ( with the euro) this would /could lead to a muchly deserved coalition government of the right.
John, I think you are correct about that coalition after the next election. A nightmare for sure. However I don’t think that Henry VIII powers could be used to rejoin even the Single Market. Mainly because the EU will want some kind of treaty that is water tight and can’t be undone at the election after. The EU wants countries who are committed to staying in and not one which has already left once and could do so again. Henry VIII powers are the UK’s equivalent to Presidential executive orders. Easy to put in place and easy to remove. Unlike primary legislation.
Simon - you & I are both old enough to know that the EU can effectively create any treaty it likes ( With a 3rd country) - three of the reasons why I think a new form of associateship could be offered to the UK is, per above a) we'd have no veto rights b) Article 50 wouldn't be on offer to us - a new treaty would exclude its use for say 50 years to ensure compliance c) we'd be fast tracked into the euro to ensure a second level of irreversible compliance.
The more important questions - Starmer would/could sign up to such excruciatingly painful conditions relatively easily - the Greens/Libs/SNP /PC would willingly sign up to effective ' Hotel California ' clause' - such a Treaty, even with new Tory/Reform government would be difficult to unstitch.
Member states would love the UK to be trussed and bound - not least to prevent us ever daring to gain a competitive advantage again. Keep your enemies closer and more tightly bound than your friends.
FFS That’s depressing.
Depressing but the reality for history proves we never learn the lessons from it and a nation in decline has to reach the bottom before it rises again when the people need to demand these changes to our governance and democracy.
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
Looking at the turnout in my area, between about 35 and 50%, the voters already know it is an unfillable vacuum. When considering that most voting is by post these days, it isn't even worth walking down to the post office to send the form, the situation is so dire.