I have slammed both Restore and Reform for a general absence of policy, which of itself is highly problematic, but it’s especially problematic that they all have a tendency to gloss over Northern Ireland, both in terms of how they would handle ECHR withdrawal, and how they would approach the Windsor Framework.
“In the mind of the average lapsed Tory Brexiteer, the EU is just being unreasonable for its own sake.”
But it is. Or rather for the sake of showing who is boss and making an example of the UK in case anyone else starts getting ideas of secession. Ultimately the EU is about raw power, that’s all. All of those who insisted that the UK had to suck this up because the alternative was too painful ignored the fact that sucking it up was also painful - as we are now seeing with the botched BRINO. It was the geopolitical equivalent of insisting that an abused wife had to stay with the violent husband for the sake of the children - foolish short-termism creating the conditions for even worse abuse.
You are probably correct about Reform’s capabilities and priorities for any first term. However do not overestimate the British public’s boredom with Brexit. You risk repeating the mistake of Remain in underestimating its visceral dislike of the EU - as Burnham may find out if he tries to force through a blatant rejoin.
Isn't the problem the EU's, not ours? If we accept their standards, we don't care what goods cross the border; if they do care, then they have to do what they have to do. Not our circus, not our monkeys.
If the result is the EU force the Irish to build a wall around the Republic - across all the fields and lanes and villages - and create guarded crossing points, then a) that will be amusing to watch (politically, financially, and logistically), and b) we can be sure we won't be getting any third worlders seeking better beheading opportunities from them.
First of all, we do not want to accept any EU foodstuffs without a regime of checks. Secondly, that approach probably forces Ireland out of the EU veterinary area, which both Ireland and the EU would view as a hostile act, which would see a cascade of retaliation resulting in the collapse of the TCA. As such, the EU has the leverage here - unless Britain has one hell of a plan to mitigate not having a trade deal with the EU. Only nobody has such a plan... which is the whole point I'm making.
Don’t we? If the origin of food is a labelling requirement, then consumers can decide for themselves if they want to buy it. It’s Europe we are talking about here - regulated to death - so I’m sure their food is fine.
So what if Ireland and the EU view it as a hostile act. They can go boil their heads as far as we are concerned - we buy more of their food than they do ours - so any ‘retaliatory action’ would be a laughable own goal. If they don’t want to sell us stuff we can get it elsewhere or do without. We simply call their bluff. Cannot bear bullies. Always stand up to them!
So, no plan needed. It’s not a game of chess where you have to work out all the moves in advance. Non-problem 🙃
Having been a regular visitor to family in NI my observation is that stuff is shifting. I can drive up from Dublin to Ballycastle without any impediments.
As can anybody. The porous border is too porous and locals are waking up to that. As we saw recently.
So as it continues the ‘free’ border is going to become more problematic at least as far as freedom of movement is concerned.
At which point the GFA becomes exceptionally problematic. If the freedom guaranteed by the CTA is deemed to be no longer fit for purpose the GFA becomes redundant at least in its commitment to open borders. It’s a ticking time bomb, and when it blows up I suspect the GFA will be the casualty.
And the finger on the scales which has always been the threat of republican violence may not be so heavy given what is happening down south. The GFA may have a time expiration. Which changes everything.
What Pete demonstrates in this and his posts in general is the utter paucity of ability, competence and talent in Westminster.
However unfortunately history teaches us that in a nation's decline leadership across the board is always second rate or in some cases even third rate examples of which include David Lammy and Paula Vennells.
" Everybody agreed that we didn’t want to see a hard border across the island of Ireland between the north and the south. "
You didn't discuss it but in the end this might this not be the only option ? especially since the attempted beheading in Belfast highlighted the dangers of the CTA. .
Brexit started to go wrong for the UK (and right for the EU) as soon as the UK government let it be known that that they didn't want to have a proper border.
I’m surprised how the purported failure of competency in parties outside Labour and Tories is regarded as a problem when we see where we are today.
If competency has given us the economic woes and political crisis we are in, isn’t it time we chose incompetency instead?
The EU countries are now looking to hold back migration and this may well stop incursion by migrants through the Irish border to Ulster.
However the reverse may then come into being where migrants arrive in the UK take a trip over to Ulster and take the train or a bus across the border to the EU.
What does the EU/Eire do then?
I’m sure the government will bow to the EU and take similar action in the UK (we haven’t really left have we?)
But if the UK doesn’t follow the EU they will have to close the border to the UK. The irony.
The Eu don't give a toss about incursion by migrants in the EU into Ulster. They welcome it - dump all their dross into this country - the french are doing it every day.
Which is why if the migration reverses and migrants move to Eire from Ulster it’s ironic.
However I feel sorry for Irish and French people who have to suffer the consequences of EU dictatorship and their politicians treachery. It’s much like the UKs political traitors.
I'm not sure why the migration would reverse - if the EU wants them out, they will come here. The EU won't close the border, the UK is already supposedly out of the EU and the border remains open.
If they go across to Eire from Ulster surely they will simply be put back into the UK?
I think the point is that in the EU they will be turfed out if they can't prove how and why they are in the EU, although it will be obvious that many of them will have come via the EU. In the UK they will be housed.
Except UK governments mirror EU on migration and hail it as their own decision.
Those migrants wanting to enter the EU for whatever reason, but unable to because of restrictions will try the Ulster/Eire route as a viable alternative.
Surely there is a way to get sanitary checks at the farm or slaughterhouse for export rather than the border. If we can get cars assembled by robots then can't carcasses get checked at a border post on a conveyor belt? I know that doesn't exist yet but you could go from hardly any checks to nearly 100% checks using robot biopsies or something similar. Or even a bitcoin style open ledger where animals are registered into it and each step of the way their medical checks and farm checks are added until the border so a full phytosanitary history is seen with a qr code on the carcass? If the UK is good at one thing it is regulatory compliance.
So what is your answer? I mean, more realistically within our existing structure , not envisaging a civil war or whatever.
IMO a civil war may be in the offing, but then what one thing will the people be fighting for? No doubt as many things as the people who voted "leave" voted for, in your opinion. I do remember seeing: thank you very much for not voting for the Norway Option, you idiots-type posts at the time of the EU referenum.
You are excellent at tearing down things that need to be torn down, but can you describe what are you building, in the here and now?
The problems in ﹰﹰNﹰI will never be resolved. The hatred between Catholics and Protestants goes back centuries. I was born in ﹰLiverpool of an ﹰIrish Catholic farther and a ﹰScotish protestant mother. Their union was objected to by both families but they produced 4 healthy children and lived good lives. The best thing my mother taught me was not to choose a religion. I have been married to s Hindu for over 30 years so life can't be all bad.
Let's not forget that Danny Kruger wrote in the Spectator that Nigel Farage is the Pope and that every conservative (he wasn't clear whether that was party member or ideological conservative) should grovel at his feet, beg for forgiveness and kiss his ring. Like Suella Braverman, something broke in his brain sometime after 2024 and it leads to bizarre and nonsensical utterances.
I used to like Kruger but have since learned that he wasn't promoted in the Conservative party not because he was seen as a "dry" but because he's lazy. His constituents were fed up with him not being available. He's a backbencher; if he can't find the time to work for his constituents then what the hell is he doing? And we all knew that putting him in charge of coming up with a policy document for Reform was never going to work out because he's not hard working enough and, besides, anything he comes up with won't be read by Farage and Yusuf.
Now policy has been kicked to the other Reform "intellectual", James Orr. A theologian and also a man reduced from being insightful on a number of matters to just repeating Reform slogans on X. I've said it before, I'll say it again, join Reform, lose 30 IQ points.
Brexit was the rejection of the idea of "ever closer union", the phrase embedded into most EU documents. They want to turn Europe into one nation with all that entails. Brexit is a repudiation of that. The EU are spiteful: All within the EU, none outside the EU, none against the EU. Guy Verhofstadt talks of a European Empire, Barnier et all don't contradict him. They want their single nation, we were the fly in the ointment. They won't deal with us except entirely on their own terms.
They suit each other, Reform and the EU: Both are cults with devotees and all apostates must be destroyed. Good luck negotiating with that.
What is the purpose of import regulations? Import regulations are government-mandated rules designed to control the flow of goods across borders. Their primary purpose is to safeguard public health, protect domestic industries from unfair economic competition, secure borders, and ensure that all incoming products meet the destination country's safety and environmental standards. If a UK firm wants to export to the EU, it has to conform to EU regulations. If an EU firm wants to export to the UK it has to conform to UK regulations. The EU is a highly protectionist organisation. And there isn’t a lot wrong with that. It is at the firm’s level that it is a problem, and firms have to adapt to the situation. Most often, they do. The UK market is a valuable one for the EU, just as the EU market is valuable for the UK. The UK can right now make its own economic policies, and regulations. It can also deal directly with other trade groups and countries all over the World. If Remainers don’t want to do that, then they are frustrating the purpose of Brexit. Where is the entrepreneurial spirit of the British these days? Crushed under an increasingly socialist system, which will cause a lot more damage to the economy than being out of the EU.
It's partisan sophistry. An interpretative opinion. Opponents will oppose that point of view as a matter of course, and it will be contested, and if there isn't a formal agreement on post-withdrawal rights, it will collapse the GFA. I've read all of these legal opinions, but at the end of the day, this is a matter of Northern Irish politics - not law.
The paper itself says "If the UK is to withdraw from the ECHR, it will be important for the British Government, in line with the spirit of the Multi-Party Agreement, to engage closely with the different parties in Northern Ireland to reassure them that the UK’s withdrawal from the ECHR will not unbalance relations between – the parity of esteem between – the different communities".
That in itself is an admission that a multi-party consensus must be reached - where all parties are satisfied that ECHR rights are intact - and that implies, at the very least, an ECHR protocol supervised by an independent panel of judges who may avail themselves of ECHR juris prudence - to the effect that NI is essentially a proxy member of the ECHR - which may cause Unionists to throw their toys out of the pram. As such, there is no basis for agreement either way - especially when all parties are looking for any reason to pull the plug.
“In the mind of the average lapsed Tory Brexiteer, the EU is just being unreasonable for its own sake.”
But it is. Or rather for the sake of showing who is boss and making an example of the UK in case anyone else starts getting ideas of secession. Ultimately the EU is about raw power, that’s all. All of those who insisted that the UK had to suck this up because the alternative was too painful ignored the fact that sucking it up was also painful - as we are now seeing with the botched BRINO. It was the geopolitical equivalent of insisting that an abused wife had to stay with the violent husband for the sake of the children - foolish short-termism creating the conditions for even worse abuse.
You are probably correct about Reform’s capabilities and priorities for any first term. However do not overestimate the British public’s boredom with Brexit. You risk repeating the mistake of Remain in underestimating its visceral dislike of the EU - as Burnham may find out if he tries to force through a blatant rejoin.
Isn't the problem the EU's, not ours? If we accept their standards, we don't care what goods cross the border; if they do care, then they have to do what they have to do. Not our circus, not our monkeys.
If the result is the EU force the Irish to build a wall around the Republic - across all the fields and lanes and villages - and create guarded crossing points, then a) that will be amusing to watch (politically, financially, and logistically), and b) we can be sure we won't be getting any third worlders seeking better beheading opportunities from them.
First of all, we do not want to accept any EU foodstuffs without a regime of checks. Secondly, that approach probably forces Ireland out of the EU veterinary area, which both Ireland and the EU would view as a hostile act, which would see a cascade of retaliation resulting in the collapse of the TCA. As such, the EU has the leverage here - unless Britain has one hell of a plan to mitigate not having a trade deal with the EU. Only nobody has such a plan... which is the whole point I'm making.
why do we need checks when the stuff came in for decades without any?https://substack.com/@stephenfhwebb/note/p-191525383?r=1cycu5
Pete seems to be making up imaginary problems. I am not sure I want him near political power
Why not? We accepted them before.
Don’t we? If the origin of food is a labelling requirement, then consumers can decide for themselves if they want to buy it. It’s Europe we are talking about here - regulated to death - so I’m sure their food is fine.
So what if Ireland and the EU view it as a hostile act. They can go boil their heads as far as we are concerned - we buy more of their food than they do ours - so any ‘retaliatory action’ would be a laughable own goal. If they don’t want to sell us stuff we can get it elsewhere or do without. We simply call their bluff. Cannot bear bullies. Always stand up to them!
So, no plan needed. It’s not a game of chess where you have to work out all the moves in advance. Non-problem 🙃
Having been a regular visitor to family in NI my observation is that stuff is shifting. I can drive up from Dublin to Ballycastle without any impediments.
As can anybody. The porous border is too porous and locals are waking up to that. As we saw recently.
So as it continues the ‘free’ border is going to become more problematic at least as far as freedom of movement is concerned.
At which point the GFA becomes exceptionally problematic. If the freedom guaranteed by the CTA is deemed to be no longer fit for purpose the GFA becomes redundant at least in its commitment to open borders. It’s a ticking time bomb, and when it blows up I suspect the GFA will be the casualty.
And the finger on the scales which has always been the threat of republican violence may not be so heavy given what is happening down south. The GFA may have a time expiration. Which changes everything.
What Pete demonstrates in this and his posts in general is the utter paucity of ability, competence and talent in Westminster.
However unfortunately history teaches us that in a nation's decline leadership across the board is always second rate or in some cases even third rate examples of which include David Lammy and Paula Vennells.
" Everybody agreed that we didn’t want to see a hard border across the island of Ireland between the north and the south. "
You didn't discuss it but in the end this might this not be the only option ? especially since the attempted beheading in Belfast highlighted the dangers of the CTA. .
Brexit started to go wrong for the UK (and right for the EU) as soon as the UK government let it be known that that they didn't want to have a proper border.
I’m surprised how the purported failure of competency in parties outside Labour and Tories is regarded as a problem when we see where we are today.
If competency has given us the economic woes and political crisis we are in, isn’t it time we chose incompetency instead?
The EU countries are now looking to hold back migration and this may well stop incursion by migrants through the Irish border to Ulster.
However the reverse may then come into being where migrants arrive in the UK take a trip over to Ulster and take the train or a bus across the border to the EU.
What does the EU/Eire do then?
I’m sure the government will bow to the EU and take similar action in the UK (we haven’t really left have we?)
But if the UK doesn’t follow the EU they will have to close the border to the UK. The irony.
The Eu don't give a toss about incursion by migrants in the EU into Ulster. They welcome it - dump all their dross into this country - the french are doing it every day.
Which is why if the migration reverses and migrants move to Eire from Ulster it’s ironic.
However I feel sorry for Irish and French people who have to suffer the consequences of EU dictatorship and their politicians treachery. It’s much like the UKs political traitors.
I'm not sure why the migration would reverse - if the EU wants them out, they will come here. The EU won't close the border, the UK is already supposedly out of the EU and the border remains open.
If they go across to Eire from Ulster surely they will simply be put back into the UK?
How will they know?
Same applies to them going from Ulster to Eire / unless they say where they came from there’s no evidence.
I think the point is that in the EU they will be turfed out if they can't prove how and why they are in the EU, although it will be obvious that many of them will have come via the EU. In the UK they will be housed.
Except UK governments mirror EU on migration and hail it as their own decision.
Those migrants wanting to enter the EU for whatever reason, but unable to because of restrictions will try the Ulster/Eire route as a viable alternative.
Surely there is a way to get sanitary checks at the farm or slaughterhouse for export rather than the border. If we can get cars assembled by robots then can't carcasses get checked at a border post on a conveyor belt? I know that doesn't exist yet but you could go from hardly any checks to nearly 100% checks using robot biopsies or something similar. Or even a bitcoin style open ledger where animals are registered into it and each step of the way their medical checks and farm checks are added until the border so a full phytosanitary history is seen with a qr code on the carcass? If the UK is good at one thing it is regulatory compliance.
So what is your answer? I mean, more realistically within our existing structure , not envisaging a civil war or whatever.
IMO a civil war may be in the offing, but then what one thing will the people be fighting for? No doubt as many things as the people who voted "leave" voted for, in your opinion. I do remember seeing: thank you very much for not voting for the Norway Option, you idiots-type posts at the time of the EU referenum.
You are excellent at tearing down things that need to be torn down, but can you describe what are you building, in the here and now?
Oh, Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side.
but brexit's done and the rules aren't failing
the madness is over, there is nothing useful to be won
Danny boy best move on and find something useful to do (trad)
Similar concerns were raised about brexit and the border. Turned out that just ignoring it worked
Just had a displeasure of being reminded of that guys' existence
The problems in ﹰﹰNﹰI will never be resolved. The hatred between Catholics and Protestants goes back centuries. I was born in ﹰLiverpool of an ﹰIrish Catholic farther and a ﹰScotish protestant mother. Their union was objected to by both families but they produced 4 healthy children and lived good lives. The best thing my mother taught me was not to choose a religion. I have been married to s Hindu for over 30 years so life can't be all bad.
Let's not forget that Danny Kruger wrote in the Spectator that Nigel Farage is the Pope and that every conservative (he wasn't clear whether that was party member or ideological conservative) should grovel at his feet, beg for forgiveness and kiss his ring. Like Suella Braverman, something broke in his brain sometime after 2024 and it leads to bizarre and nonsensical utterances.
I used to like Kruger but have since learned that he wasn't promoted in the Conservative party not because he was seen as a "dry" but because he's lazy. His constituents were fed up with him not being available. He's a backbencher; if he can't find the time to work for his constituents then what the hell is he doing? And we all knew that putting him in charge of coming up with a policy document for Reform was never going to work out because he's not hard working enough and, besides, anything he comes up with won't be read by Farage and Yusuf.
Now policy has been kicked to the other Reform "intellectual", James Orr. A theologian and also a man reduced from being insightful on a number of matters to just repeating Reform slogans on X. I've said it before, I'll say it again, join Reform, lose 30 IQ points.
Brexit was the rejection of the idea of "ever closer union", the phrase embedded into most EU documents. They want to turn Europe into one nation with all that entails. Brexit is a repudiation of that. The EU are spiteful: All within the EU, none outside the EU, none against the EU. Guy Verhofstadt talks of a European Empire, Barnier et all don't contradict him. They want their single nation, we were the fly in the ointment. They won't deal with us except entirely on their own terms.
They suit each other, Reform and the EU: Both are cults with devotees and all apostates must be destroyed. Good luck negotiating with that.
What is the purpose of import regulations? Import regulations are government-mandated rules designed to control the flow of goods across borders. Their primary purpose is to safeguard public health, protect domestic industries from unfair economic competition, secure borders, and ensure that all incoming products meet the destination country's safety and environmental standards. If a UK firm wants to export to the EU, it has to conform to EU regulations. If an EU firm wants to export to the UK it has to conform to UK regulations. The EU is a highly protectionist organisation. And there isn’t a lot wrong with that. It is at the firm’s level that it is a problem, and firms have to adapt to the situation. Most often, they do. The UK market is a valuable one for the EU, just as the EU market is valuable for the UK. The UK can right now make its own economic policies, and regulations. It can also deal directly with other trade groups and countries all over the World. If Remainers don’t want to do that, then they are frustrating the purpose of Brexit. Where is the entrepreneurial spirit of the British these days? Crushed under an increasingly socialist system, which will cause a lot more damage to the economy than being out of the EU.
Danny Kruger calls himself a Christian but is happy to promote Bonnie blue
have you read the Policy Exchange paper? a serious piece of work on leaving ECHR and the links to GFA
https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/the-echr-and-the-belfast-good-friday-agreement/
It's partisan sophistry. An interpretative opinion. Opponents will oppose that point of view as a matter of course, and it will be contested, and if there isn't a formal agreement on post-withdrawal rights, it will collapse the GFA. I've read all of these legal opinions, but at the end of the day, this is a matter of Northern Irish politics - not law.
The paper itself says "If the UK is to withdraw from the ECHR, it will be important for the British Government, in line with the spirit of the Multi-Party Agreement, to engage closely with the different parties in Northern Ireland to reassure them that the UK’s withdrawal from the ECHR will not unbalance relations between – the parity of esteem between – the different communities".
That in itself is an admission that a multi-party consensus must be reached - where all parties are satisfied that ECHR rights are intact - and that implies, at the very least, an ECHR protocol supervised by an independent panel of judges who may avail themselves of ECHR juris prudence - to the effect that NI is essentially a proxy member of the ECHR - which may cause Unionists to throw their toys out of the pram. As such, there is no basis for agreement either way - especially when all parties are looking for any reason to pull the plug.