Matt Goodwin says "Under a Reform government, foreign nationals in social housing will be given three months to find private accommodation or face being deported".
Our views coincide once more. Turfing immigrants out of social accommodation would be a massive operation - beyond any capability of the state and local government to enforce. If this were tried, the country would step directly into a 'hot' civil war, which again there is no possibility of containing. The Police can barely cope with one planned "mostly peaceful" demo a week, and the prisons are already full. Laughable if it were not so grave. There is absolutely no sign of any political or intellectual competence anywhere. Lowe's heart may be in the right place, but even he needs to get his head around state incapacity.
It's shocking to me that I thought David Betts' predictions just a few months ago were overblown. I simply couldn't get my head around the possibiliy of civil war no matyter what form it came in.
I’m not at all convinced it’s all set in stone. Events are fluid. Take for example Makerfield. If Burnham wins it (likely given the ‘split’ vote) then Starmer is gone (it was only a matter of time).
Burnham, while being a machine politician, is not stupid. He may take a call that a snap election is the best chance of avoiding a cratering of labour if he waits till ‘29.
So we end up with a quick election. The Tories are destroyed. Reform pick up their bulk. But can’t form a government.
It gives Reform a few extra years to sort their stuff out. Meanwhile an unstable rainbow coalition governs.
It waves Reform over the line sometime between ‘26-‘29. Because the state of the country under a rainbow coalition is just headed in one direction with mad economic policies but without Starmer’s majority. Constant parliamentary drama with wafer majorities.
Reform then have economic options after a chaotic coalition. Making even basic amendments to economic policy under a reform gov (Corp tax, Net Zero, CGT, income tax etc) could provide a growth boost. At which point there is a window for other policies.
Civil war is a ludicrous scenario because British politics has a tendency to thrash out via FTP extremes. We have witnessed (because of Johnson and his nonsense) a once in a generation event with a government almost untrammelled. That won’t be repeated and the automatic stabilisers of the system will kick in.
Makerfield is fascinating as it genuinely could be a fulcrum point.
Your scenario is plausible, but don't rule out civil war. It's highly plausible because we are halfway there. It basically looks like Belfast last week, but every city, every weekend.
Just posted on Pete's father's blog TurbulentTimes:-
The 'people' will continue to be shafted by our corrupt politicians, especially by Starmer's Labour government, until they master the fact that they need to develop the peaceful tactics of non-compliance which needs to be coupled with demands for change that makes our politicians our servants instead of our masters.
Violence will never work and always plays to a government's strengths.
Well of course extreme violent revolution does change things dramatically but I'm referring to the need for the essential reforms necessary to improve our governance and democracy which IMO will only come about with mass peaceful protests
I'm well aware at 75 I may not be around to see the 'people' win the necessary reforms to turn our politicians from our masters into our servants but if you have any better ideas for the way ahead other than the complete overhaul of our governance and democracy then please share it!
BTW from the Levellers 1642-1651 to the Chartists 1838- 1848 and Suffragettes 1903-1928 the Representation of the People's Act of 1918 gave you the vote and it only took 276 years!
The political change we need will take time and I welcome your feedback!?
As has been said, ‘We're not voting our way out of this.’ There are too many people with skin in the status quo game. They'll only change when the consequences of their own actions knock on their doors. Reform is just a containment mechanism to buy a few more years until AI surveillance becomes capable enough to make all of this moot. We will either go out with a whimper, or there will be a ‘correction’.
If handled properly removing migrants from properties would not be as big a barrier as you think.
Firstly, taking the issue from a benefits angle the benefit is withdrawn due to ineligibility.
Second those protesting can be identified and their finances docked to pay for migrants accommodation in temporary homes(tents).
Or they could have ‘homeless’ migrants foisted on their homes like they did in the 2nd World War.
Thirdly unions and charities could be prevented from subsiding demonstrators by changing the law so that demonstrators have to pay out of their own pockets - the other side have to.
All these provisions would prove popular with the general public, if not so much by demonstrators.
My guess is that nothing will change. Labour will win Makerfield and the next election in a rainbow and nationalist coalition. Reform and Restore will wither on the vine after Farage and Lowe die or give up. Managed decline will continue at pace as we rejoin the EU. It won’t be pretty.
I keep hoping you are wrong. There's policy by headline and clickbait while in the meantime there are Reform councillors and ex-Tories and some sensible people reading Pete North to work out that governing is more complicated than expected. There are easy wins such as ditching Net Zero, policies that need hard graft and issues that may resolve themselves. Who will want to flee to Britain when the country is bankrupt, there are no handouts and the people are less than friendly. Unfortunately with Burnham having no solutions to anything except sounding less robotic than Starmer we have a lot further to decline before we hit the bottom.
"There's only so much bad press a sitting government can withstand" <- the current Labour government have proved this wrong. I mean, it makes sense. You can't take the piss out of the voters and get away with it but you absolutely CAN take the piss out of them for 4-5 years and do ABSOLUTELY anything you like *if* and this is critical, *if* you have a large enough parliamentary majority. Look at what Labour have done,the laws they've passed, the control they are exerting. So, I agree this should have a sensible measured plan behind it but that will require support from councils, the civil service and contractors and there are elements in all of those who will resist at every step. Even now SERCO have essentially said they won't cooperate with deportation. They want to keep making money from the situation obviously. The police are nearly all brainwashed by the college of policing. Here's what will happen, Reform will likely get in or perhaps Restore, they will be caught up in legal warfare for the majority of their term and get very little done. Sectarian violence will spread as the economy struggles to recover with all the political turmoil and we will have a civil war, and just like in Serbia, all our personal information will be used to make targeting lists. Best get a good 5k pace and a good group of neighbors by 2028.
It’s amazing that your only qualm with making children homeless is how the “heartstring cases” will play in the media, rather than, you know, the *reason* they are heartstring cases which will play in the media, which is that they cause terrible suffering to innocent people and so the vast majority of people will rightly find them despicable.
Similarly “people may not be persuaded by mass deportations”. Perhaps because it’s pointlessly evil?
The UK will be back in the EU before long and implementing the Migration Pact. Reform and Restore are simply misdirection. The British Establishment has it all figured out, the apparent chaos is deliberate and managed. We haven't even seen the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure hit yet, things are going to get way more uncomfortable.
The original Brexit vote was a pretty close run thing and it's blatantly obvious the British Establishment has been fighting it tooth and nail since the get go. As if public opinion matter anyway.
Andrew Bridgen spoke of electoral officers slipping remain votes in ballot counts and speaking to a senior civil servant who told him more than 90% of electoral personnel were pro remain.
How would they know that - unless they vetted them and why would they want to do that?
Somethings not kosher.
This country is more corrupt than many people care to acknowledge.
Britain is run by the City of London, they may stumble occasionally but having all the money in the world a misstep here or there won't derail their plans in the end.
Like you, I don't perceive the calibre of politicians or agitators (Robinson) who could do much better than what we have. I despair and am terrified for my (adult) children and their children, and their children. In my view, the Internet, while obviously a power for good in many ways, has caused this 'breakdown of society'. You can't put genies back in bottles. Ever.
Set a start date. 1945, 1968, 1997. It doesn't matter that much as long as it is before the recent mass migration, although I'd prefer 1945. Only those who had citizenship before that date, or are descended from someone who is counts. Some one foreign married to a citizen gets special exception whilst married (and their children become citizens). This denaturalises generations of colonists who have no intention of integrating.
Our views coincide once more. Turfing immigrants out of social accommodation would be a massive operation - beyond any capability of the state and local government to enforce. If this were tried, the country would step directly into a 'hot' civil war, which again there is no possibility of containing. The Police can barely cope with one planned "mostly peaceful" demo a week, and the prisons are already full. Laughable if it were not so grave. There is absolutely no sign of any political or intellectual competence anywhere. Lowe's heart may be in the right place, but even he needs to get his head around state incapacity.
In my view, we are in a terribly dangerous situation.
It's shocking to me that I thought David Betts' predictions just a few months ago were overblown. I simply couldn't get my head around the possibiliy of civil war no matyter what form it came in.
I’m not at all convinced it’s all set in stone. Events are fluid. Take for example Makerfield. If Burnham wins it (likely given the ‘split’ vote) then Starmer is gone (it was only a matter of time).
Burnham, while being a machine politician, is not stupid. He may take a call that a snap election is the best chance of avoiding a cratering of labour if he waits till ‘29.
So we end up with a quick election. The Tories are destroyed. Reform pick up their bulk. But can’t form a government.
It gives Reform a few extra years to sort their stuff out. Meanwhile an unstable rainbow coalition governs.
It waves Reform over the line sometime between ‘26-‘29. Because the state of the country under a rainbow coalition is just headed in one direction with mad economic policies but without Starmer’s majority. Constant parliamentary drama with wafer majorities.
Reform then have economic options after a chaotic coalition. Making even basic amendments to economic policy under a reform gov (Corp tax, Net Zero, CGT, income tax etc) could provide a growth boost. At which point there is a window for other policies.
Civil war is a ludicrous scenario because British politics has a tendency to thrash out via FTP extremes. We have witnessed (because of Johnson and his nonsense) a once in a generation event with a government almost untrammelled. That won’t be repeated and the automatic stabilisers of the system will kick in.
Makerfield is fascinating as it genuinely could be a fulcrum point.
Your scenario is plausible, but don't rule out civil war. It's highly plausible because we are halfway there. It basically looks like Belfast last week, but every city, every weekend.
We are already in a low grade civil war. The government seems to be intent on fanning the flames. The "ludicrous" could easily become reality.
Can't agree with you. You have completely overlooked the rise of sectarianism and its politics in this country which will only grow.
https://youtu.be/L2K2O7skuP8
Just posted on Pete's father's blog TurbulentTimes:-
The 'people' will continue to be shafted by our corrupt politicians, especially by Starmer's Labour government, until they master the fact that they need to develop the peaceful tactics of non-compliance which needs to be coupled with demands for change that makes our politicians our servants instead of our masters.
Violence will never work and always plays to a government's strengths.
On the contrary, history has shown that violence absolutely does work. As regrettable as that may be.
Well of course extreme violent revolution does change things dramatically but I'm referring to the need for the essential reforms necessary to improve our governance and democracy which IMO will only come about with mass peaceful protests
Are you perchance familiar with this?
https://harrogateagenda.org.uk/
Good luck with that strategy against the growing state of Islamism in this country.
I'm well aware at 75 I may not be around to see the 'people' win the necessary reforms to turn our politicians from our masters into our servants but if you have any better ideas for the way ahead other than the complete overhaul of our governance and democracy then please share it!
BTW from the Levellers 1642-1651 to the Chartists 1838- 1848 and Suffragettes 1903-1928 the Representation of the People's Act of 1918 gave you the vote and it only took 276 years!
The political change we need will take time and I welcome your feedback!?
As has been said, ‘We're not voting our way out of this.’ There are too many people with skin in the status quo game. They'll only change when the consequences of their own actions knock on their doors. Reform is just a containment mechanism to buy a few more years until AI surveillance becomes capable enough to make all of this moot. We will either go out with a whimper, or there will be a ‘correction’.
If handled properly removing migrants from properties would not be as big a barrier as you think.
Firstly, taking the issue from a benefits angle the benefit is withdrawn due to ineligibility.
Second those protesting can be identified and their finances docked to pay for migrants accommodation in temporary homes(tents).
Or they could have ‘homeless’ migrants foisted on their homes like they did in the 2nd World War.
Thirdly unions and charities could be prevented from subsiding demonstrators by changing the law so that demonstrators have to pay out of their own pockets - the other side have to.
All these provisions would prove popular with the general public, if not so much by demonstrators.
Change the law, so those who sign off on a foreigner having social housing are responsible for the costs.
That’s why I’d dock their money.
But by far the better solution would be to put an illegal and/or their families with the protestor and/or their family.
My guess is that nothing will change. Labour will win Makerfield and the next election in a rainbow and nationalist coalition. Reform and Restore will wither on the vine after Farage and Lowe die or give up. Managed decline will continue at pace as we rejoin the EU. It won’t be pretty.
I keep hoping you are wrong. There's policy by headline and clickbait while in the meantime there are Reform councillors and ex-Tories and some sensible people reading Pete North to work out that governing is more complicated than expected. There are easy wins such as ditching Net Zero, policies that need hard graft and issues that may resolve themselves. Who will want to flee to Britain when the country is bankrupt, there are no handouts and the people are less than friendly. Unfortunately with Burnham having no solutions to anything except sounding less robotic than Starmer we have a lot further to decline before we hit the bottom.
"In my view, the era of stable government is over for the foreseeable future. "
The government has pushed us down a slippery slope. The next few months will be critical and I can only see its actions making matters worse.
"There's only so much bad press a sitting government can withstand" <- the current Labour government have proved this wrong. I mean, it makes sense. You can't take the piss out of the voters and get away with it but you absolutely CAN take the piss out of them for 4-5 years and do ABSOLUTELY anything you like *if* and this is critical, *if* you have a large enough parliamentary majority. Look at what Labour have done,the laws they've passed, the control they are exerting. So, I agree this should have a sensible measured plan behind it but that will require support from councils, the civil service and contractors and there are elements in all of those who will resist at every step. Even now SERCO have essentially said they won't cooperate with deportation. They want to keep making money from the situation obviously. The police are nearly all brainwashed by the college of policing. Here's what will happen, Reform will likely get in or perhaps Restore, they will be caught up in legal warfare for the majority of their term and get very little done. Sectarian violence will spread as the economy struggles to recover with all the political turmoil and we will have a civil war, and just like in Serbia, all our personal information will be used to make targeting lists. Best get a good 5k pace and a good group of neighbors by 2028.
Reform, Tory 2.0, will do nothing
It’s amazing that your only qualm with making children homeless is how the “heartstring cases” will play in the media, rather than, you know, the *reason* they are heartstring cases which will play in the media, which is that they cause terrible suffering to innocent people and so the vast majority of people will rightly find them despicable.
Similarly “people may not be persuaded by mass deportations”. Perhaps because it’s pointlessly evil?
I have no problem with throwing foreigners out of social housing.
The UK will be back in the EU before long and implementing the Migration Pact. Reform and Restore are simply misdirection. The British Establishment has it all figured out, the apparent chaos is deliberate and managed. We haven't even seen the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure hit yet, things are going to get way more uncomfortable.
The EU has its own problems with Germany, France, Sweden, Italy never mind Eastern European countries.
Then there’s the currency. They would need to persuade us to join the Euro.
It would require a referendum- which would need a huge change of heart.
Labour (and those non entities the Tory’s) will continue to push for integration without union.
The EU countries, all of them, would have to want us in.
LOL. You clearly haven’t been paying attention to how Brussels does its business.
Same difference.
I agree with your second part, but feel that there is too much antipathy against the EU, at least I hope so.
The original Brexit vote was a pretty close run thing and it's blatantly obvious the British Establishment has been fighting it tooth and nail since the get go. As if public opinion matter anyway.
Perhaps not so close.
Andrew Bridgen spoke of electoral officers slipping remain votes in ballot counts and speaking to a senior civil servant who told him more than 90% of electoral personnel were pro remain.
How would they know that - unless they vetted them and why would they want to do that?
Somethings not kosher.
This country is more corrupt than many people care to acknowledge.
Britain is run by the City of London, they may stumble occasionally but having all the money in the world a misstep here or there won't derail their plans in the end.
Can't disagree with you at all, Pete.
Like you, I don't perceive the calibre of politicians or agitators (Robinson) who could do much better than what we have. I despair and am terrified for my (adult) children and their children, and their children. In my view, the Internet, while obviously a power for good in many ways, has caused this 'breakdown of society'. You can't put genies back in bottles. Ever.
Begs the fundamental question: how do you define a foreign national? Dual passport holders, Windrush generation. Who?
Set a start date. 1945, 1968, 1997. It doesn't matter that much as long as it is before the recent mass migration, although I'd prefer 1945. Only those who had citizenship before that date, or are descended from someone who is counts. Some one foreign married to a citizen gets special exception whilst married (and their children become citizens). This denaturalises generations of colonists who have no intention of integrating.