We are seeing the result of that 'March through the institutions'
Every government departments is run by lefty activists, as this is the result. It is also the best they can achieve. They need reminding of this daily.
As for who can start to clean up this mess, pfffft, who knows.
The Tories won't, even if they got in. CCHQ and the donors are the same people and will want the same outcomes the Tories gave them during their 14 years of doing absolutely nothing they were elected to do.
Labour won't as it's their mates.
Lib Dems? Bwahahahaaa....Ooooh, look at me, I've fallen off a canoe, I'm sooooooo zany. Ed Davey appeals only to the middle class feminist who thinks she's rebellious by not voting labour.
Heritage Party? I like Dave, but his support isn't even close to being anything above a single percentage point.
Corbyns 'Raisin' party? He's as divisive as Farage, with less support.
Habib and Lowe? See Heritage - not happening
Leaves only Reform. As sticky as it is and as uncertain as it would be, what is turning into Farage's Tory Party 2 may well be the only option on the ballot that has a remote chance of breaking the Uni party, and actually doing.......just something! Christ, it really is that bad.
It's all rather grim.
Still, you have to laugh; Ed Davey may forget his life jacket next time.
The special needs school of the PPE political class has shown itself (once again) to be an outdated, sclerotic richbois club that just can't keep with the times.
Of course, our establishment still want to be in it. God forbid they actually make any decisions themselves!
I think you are a sceptic of Danny Kruger’s and I can understand your reservations, but one thing I would note about him is that he is a career politician (thus his switch from the ‘dead’ tories). I am slightly intrigued to see whether he can shape or inform Reform’s policy approach and negate Farage’s baleful leadership when it comes to actual detail. Kruger is 50ish. Farage is now past 60 and has not had the best record of health over the last few years.
I was just going to post a similar comment, so have appended - interested in your thoughts on Kruger. I appreciate that my short blog on him (https://alexstarling77.substack.com/p/danny-kruger) might come across a bit fan-boyish, but check the para at the bottom regarding the stark choices for the thinking voters (noting your point about BBC-watchers, of course!).
I'm aware of various older boomers (and possibly pre-boomers) - avid BBC watchers and Daily Mail readers all - who were VERY taken by Kruger's speech on the church in July. Not sure whether this angle has been noted by the lobby or the chattering classes. The fact that Charles Moore felt obliged to be sniffy about him kind of indicates that they - at least sub-consciously - may have realised that Kruger has struck a chord with some.
Yes, but that's my point - the speech was good and has caused a bit of a stir in certain circles - people have taken notice, DESPITE the house / Westminster bubble / the lobby ignoring it.
If everyone played things honourably, then yes, a defecting MP should call a by-election. But the left wouldn't do that, so why should Kruger? We have a Burkean system in place (and have done for a long time), so he is at least sticking to how Parliament SHOULD work, i.e. "vote for me, I'm with XXX party. But you are voting for me and my conscience, and my actions will be determined by my conscience".
The unintended consequences of forcing by-elections on a defection would be that MPs are more likely to stay with their parties EVEN IF THOSE PARTIES/LEADERS DO UNCONSCIENABLE THINGS.
However, I agree with you that an MP that defects, calls a by-election and then win that by-election would be on higher moral ground than one that doesn't. But would you take that risk when instead you could be spending your time using your position to act in the best interests of your constituency? Looking back, forcing by-elections in these situations would have robbed Parliament of many characters that contributed to rational discourse.
Whenever I see Farage, he looks tired. And, despite Reform's polling, he doesn't look like he's much enjoying his role as leader. And neither does he strike me as someone who's much interested in or capable of getting his head around a wide array of policy detail. So it's perhaps fortuitous that someone like Kruger, who strikes me as capable of coordinating the development of a policy platform, has come along at this time. We shall see how it pans out.
Excellent and well argued post. Deporting hundreds of thousand of Muslims is not what’s required, deporting millions of Muslims is what’s required. However, this would not be physically or logistically possible. The way forward is to make it as difficult as possible or impossible to be a practising Muslim in Britain. Hopefully, this would lead to Muslims leaving the country of their own volition and, of course, modest financial incentives such as free one way plane tickets could be part of the mix. We still don’t have an opposition party willing to admit the scale of the problem facing the British people, certainly not Reform.
Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb in in his 1975 essay The Fat of Empires pointed out in the six and final stage of s nations life cycle he called 'The age of Decadence; he made it very clear the West has further to go down hill before it rises again.
The current lots of politicians, including Farage, have to be totally discredited before new blood can takes over.
I've known him and worked directly for him for nearly 15 years and he is I'm afraid to say a charlatan. He is incapable of working in a team, just look how he treated Lowe and Habib and UKIP had more able people outside it in the end than in it before he dump the whole party and all its workers and supporters.
Read Michael Cricks book on him to see just how loathsome he really is.
Yes he believed and pushed to leave the EU and definitely helped the cause but the cause also made him very rich.
Same comment as three months ago, there is still time on our side. Labour will implode and will be holding the parcel when the music stops. Reform has a year or two to refine its message, and respond to pressure from right and left. On the other hand …
Don’t underestimate Danny Kruger. If he can survive the inner politics of the toxic competition at the top of Reform, he would imho make a good PM. Also, you are blind to the edge of politics from the Free Speech Union to UKIP and Advance U.K., other groups are constantly pushing to reshape things. Their weight is not inconsiderable and if any of them combine, conventional politics might have to reconsider its methods.
I must get around to reading “Despised”. I like reading Paul’s work and struggle to reconcile his common sense and patriotism with Labour Party membership. Likewise Glassman. Sadly they’re both going to be disappointed men as there’s more chance of Corbyn becoming leader again than a Blue Labour candidate. Are there any Blue Labour MPs in Parliament? If so they’re pretty quiet.
Paul and Maurice Glasman are trying to reclaim the party from within. I think that's a thankless task. I asked him why he doesn't join the SDP (my party). He said that it's because they have no realistic chance of forming a government. On a different night I would have pressed him hard on how he thinks that will ever change if people like him won't make the jump, but it wasn't that sort of evening.
I agree with much of what you say Pete and in particular it’s important that the left is holding the parcel when the music stops. Where I disagree is your opinion that a Reform government will lead to a bond market meltdown post 2029. This will happen much sooner, possibly early 2026. Reeves’ next budget will be her last and with 30 year sovereign bonds rising to 5.5% today (under Truss they hit 4.85%) we’re at a point where our debt is unaffordable to the country and unwanted by the bond markets. Despite this the BoE has to issue more every month at higher rates or floating rates. Incredibly, they’re also selling debt they bought under QE during Covid back into the market further increasing rates. This can’t continue and there will be a time soon when the government will run out of money and a choice will have to be made of seeking IMF help (at a cost), slashing spending on benefits and potentially not paying pensions to government staff and of course huge tax rises.
This is an excellent and hard nosed analysis but I just can’t share any enthusiasm for Jenrick, a Johnny come lately opportunist and one who sold his vote to a porn baron for a few grand in a brown envelope. If he’s the leader and I’m Labour I’m going to remind the public of that Every. Single. Day. until he resigns.
The Tories are done unless someone completely untainted by 20 years of failure and sleaze can come up from the roots. Maybe the next Thatcher is out there somewhere. But as you rightly say, Kemi isn’t it, neither is Nige, nor Rupert.
We are seeing the result of that 'March through the institutions'
Every government departments is run by lefty activists, as this is the result. It is also the best they can achieve. They need reminding of this daily.
As for who can start to clean up this mess, pfffft, who knows.
The Tories won't, even if they got in. CCHQ and the donors are the same people and will want the same outcomes the Tories gave them during their 14 years of doing absolutely nothing they were elected to do.
Labour won't as it's their mates.
Lib Dems? Bwahahahaaa....Ooooh, look at me, I've fallen off a canoe, I'm sooooooo zany. Ed Davey appeals only to the middle class feminist who thinks she's rebellious by not voting labour.
Heritage Party? I like Dave, but his support isn't even close to being anything above a single percentage point.
Corbyns 'Raisin' party? He's as divisive as Farage, with less support.
Habib and Lowe? See Heritage - not happening
Leaves only Reform. As sticky as it is and as uncertain as it would be, what is turning into Farage's Tory Party 2 may well be the only option on the ballot that has a remote chance of breaking the Uni party, and actually doing.......just something! Christ, it really is that bad.
It's all rather grim.
Still, you have to laugh; Ed Davey may forget his life jacket next time.
A bit of a silver lining is the state of the EU.
The EU think their economy can sail on, it can’t.
A floundering Europe (including the UK) will have to look to the USA.
The USA will rescue the situation, as it’s a financial opportunity.
They will also demand a change to our politics.
Trump and his allies are well aware of Europes slide into chaos and won’t shy away from remedial action.
It will hurt, but not as much as continuing on Europes suicidal path though.
The EU is effed
The special needs school of the PPE political class has shown itself (once again) to be an outdated, sclerotic richbois club that just can't keep with the times.
Of course, our establishment still want to be in it. God forbid they actually make any decisions themselves!
I think you are a sceptic of Danny Kruger’s and I can understand your reservations, but one thing I would note about him is that he is a career politician (thus his switch from the ‘dead’ tories). I am slightly intrigued to see whether he can shape or inform Reform’s policy approach and negate Farage’s baleful leadership when it comes to actual detail. Kruger is 50ish. Farage is now past 60 and has not had the best record of health over the last few years.
I was just going to post a similar comment, so have appended - interested in your thoughts on Kruger. I appreciate that my short blog on him (https://alexstarling77.substack.com/p/danny-kruger) might come across a bit fan-boyish, but check the para at the bottom regarding the stark choices for the thinking voters (noting your point about BBC-watchers, of course!).
I'm aware of various older boomers (and possibly pre-boomers) - avid BBC watchers and Daily Mail readers all - who were VERY taken by Kruger's speech on the church in July. Not sure whether this angle has been noted by the lobby or the chattering classes. The fact that Charles Moore felt obliged to be sniffy about him kind of indicates that they - at least sub-consciously - may have realised that Kruger has struck a chord with some.
It was a good speech but to an empty chamber! I'd be more impressed with Kruger if he had gone for re-election, as a Reform candidate.
Yes, but that's my point - the speech was good and has caused a bit of a stir in certain circles - people have taken notice, DESPITE the house / Westminster bubble / the lobby ignoring it.
If everyone played things honourably, then yes, a defecting MP should call a by-election. But the left wouldn't do that, so why should Kruger? We have a Burkean system in place (and have done for a long time), so he is at least sticking to how Parliament SHOULD work, i.e. "vote for me, I'm with XXX party. But you are voting for me and my conscience, and my actions will be determined by my conscience".
The unintended consequences of forcing by-elections on a defection would be that MPs are more likely to stay with their parties EVEN IF THOSE PARTIES/LEADERS DO UNCONSCIENABLE THINGS.
However, I agree with you that an MP that defects, calls a by-election and then win that by-election would be on higher moral ground than one that doesn't. But would you take that risk when instead you could be spending your time using your position to act in the best interests of your constituency? Looking back, forcing by-elections in these situations would have robbed Parliament of many characters that contributed to rational discourse.
Whenever I see Farage, he looks tired. And, despite Reform's polling, he doesn't look like he's much enjoying his role as leader. And neither does he strike me as someone who's much interested in or capable of getting his head around a wide array of policy detail. So it's perhaps fortuitous that someone like Kruger, who strikes me as capable of coordinating the development of a policy platform, has come along at this time. We shall see how it pans out.
Excellent and well argued post. Deporting hundreds of thousand of Muslims is not what’s required, deporting millions of Muslims is what’s required. However, this would not be physically or logistically possible. The way forward is to make it as difficult as possible or impossible to be a practising Muslim in Britain. Hopefully, this would lead to Muslims leaving the country of their own volition and, of course, modest financial incentives such as free one way plane tickets could be part of the mix. We still don’t have an opposition party willing to admit the scale of the problem facing the British people, certainly not Reform.
Sorry Pete all i can provide is more bad news.
Sir John 'Pasha' Glubb in in his 1975 essay The Fat of Empires pointed out in the six and final stage of s nations life cycle he called 'The age of Decadence; he made it very clear the West has further to go down hill before it rises again.
The current lots of politicians, including Farage, have to be totally discredited before new blood can takes over.
Why do you include Farage?
I've known him and worked directly for him for nearly 15 years and he is I'm afraid to say a charlatan. He is incapable of working in a team, just look how he treated Lowe and Habib and UKIP had more able people outside it in the end than in it before he dump the whole party and all its workers and supporters.
Read Michael Cricks book on him to see just how loathsome he really is.
Yes he believed and pushed to leave the EU and definitely helped the cause but the cause also made him very rich.
He is sadly NOT a man to be trusted.
Same comment as three months ago, there is still time on our side. Labour will implode and will be holding the parcel when the music stops. Reform has a year or two to refine its message, and respond to pressure from right and left. On the other hand …
Don’t underestimate Danny Kruger. If he can survive the inner politics of the toxic competition at the top of Reform, he would imho make a good PM. Also, you are blind to the edge of politics from the Free Speech Union to UKIP and Advance U.K., other groups are constantly pushing to reshape things. Their weight is not inconsiderable and if any of them combine, conventional politics might have to reconsider its methods.
I met Paul Embery this evening. Not all Labour Party members and trade unionists are narcissistic progressive twits. That was good news to me, anyway.
Did you ask him why he’s still a Labour Party member? Labour left people like Embrey many years ago.
Also, he knows that. He's written a book about it 😉
I must get around to reading “Despised”. I like reading Paul’s work and struggle to reconcile his common sense and patriotism with Labour Party membership. Likewise Glassman. Sadly they’re both going to be disappointed men as there’s more chance of Corbyn becoming leader again than a Blue Labour candidate. Are there any Blue Labour MPs in Parliament? If so they’re pretty quiet.
Paul and Maurice Glasman are trying to reclaim the party from within. I think that's a thankless task. I asked him why he doesn't join the SDP (my party). He said that it's because they have no realistic chance of forming a government. On a different night I would have pressed him hard on how he thinks that will ever change if people like him won't make the jump, but it wasn't that sort of evening.
He said there's about half a dozen that they can rely on. So, no, not really 🤔
I agree with much of what you say Pete and in particular it’s important that the left is holding the parcel when the music stops. Where I disagree is your opinion that a Reform government will lead to a bond market meltdown post 2029. This will happen much sooner, possibly early 2026. Reeves’ next budget will be her last and with 30 year sovereign bonds rising to 5.5% today (under Truss they hit 4.85%) we’re at a point where our debt is unaffordable to the country and unwanted by the bond markets. Despite this the BoE has to issue more every month at higher rates or floating rates. Incredibly, they’re also selling debt they bought under QE during Covid back into the market further increasing rates. This can’t continue and there will be a time soon when the government will run out of money and a choice will have to be made of seeking IMF help (at a cost), slashing spending on benefits and potentially not paying pensions to government staff and of course huge tax rises.
This is an excellent and hard nosed analysis but I just can’t share any enthusiasm for Jenrick, a Johnny come lately opportunist and one who sold his vote to a porn baron for a few grand in a brown envelope. If he’s the leader and I’m Labour I’m going to remind the public of that Every. Single. Day. until he resigns.
The Tories are done unless someone completely untainted by 20 years of failure and sleaze can come up from the roots. Maybe the next Thatcher is out there somewhere. But as you rightly say, Kemi isn’t it, neither is Nige, nor Rupert.
No heir in sight for the right.
Reform is a rudder less mess with Mr Farage. Without him and his media pulling power they're good as gone.