The right is broken beyond repair

It’s going to take some considerable self-discipline not to write obsessively about the Tory leadership contest. It was once an important and consequential process. This time around, though, the stakes are low. I don’t see any of the contenders being able to bridge the ideological divides within the party, and I don’t see a way back for them any time soon.

Pundits on the right put the blame squarely on the liberal wing of the party, urging that the party takes note of the rise of Reform, but as I understand it, the party lost almost as many votes to the Lib Dems - which tells you something about the state of the party. It is a delusion on the right that if the Tory party becomes and unapologetically right wing party, thereby neutralising Reform, it will romp home to victory.

There’s more than a few problems with this. Not least since both Patel and Braverman presided over record levels of immigration. Meanwhile Tom Tugendhat is making noises about quitting the ECHR. But who on earth would believe him, or trust him?

Moreover, Reform won’t shut up shop just because the Tories are moving in on their turf. The vote would be split squarely down the middle. As such, the Tories have no real choice but to try and hold their creaking coalition together. As predicted, the ECHR is the bone they will throw to the right, but that’s as far as it goes. It certainly shoots Farage’s fox on holding a referendum on the issue, but it won’t be enough to win back Reform voters.

According to a Telegraph poll the other day, Kemi Badenoch is looking like the favourite, and she does have her fans, but my every instinct tells me she cannot win an election. She’s on her way to becoming the new Penny Mordaunt. Superficially competent, bright, and ambitious, but viewed with suspicion by the party. I very much doubt the right will back a black “first generation immigrant”, as she describes herself. Come what may, a party so ideologically compromised, and with no basis to trust it, is done for.

Meanwhile, any talk of a merger with Reform looks less implausible than ever. Reform just didn’t get the numbers to make that a realistic prospect, and the amateurism of Reform is its own deterrent to Tory defections. They may win Suella Braverman over when her leadership bid fails, but then her political career is more or less over.

As such, things look pretty grim for the right. The Tory rump will continue to pointlessly exist, to the extent that it doesn’t matter if it is elected or not for all the good it will do, while Reform is singularly incapable of replacing it.

In a parallel universe, there’s a competent version of Farage who is already working out how to convert their close-seconds from the last election into parliamentary seats, while setting up local branches and a policy unit to become a real party. But that universe is not this universe.

I have serious doubts as to whether the party can make the necessary changes to become a serious force in politics. There's a lot of work to be done and if the party isn't listening to Ben Habib, then it will squander any potential it might have.

I seriously doubt Ben will be listened to, but even then, I just don't see this ending well. The party has a group of six MPs and more than a few sympathisers in parliament. As such, Farage should be asking himself what he and his team are going to usefully do in parliament over next five years.

By that, I mean the serious work of parliamentarians... attending committees, producing reports, tabling amendments, asking ministerial questions, and doing the bread and butter constituency work.

This is not just about proving they are up to the job. It's about utilising the resources available to them to usefully influence policy, to formulate policies of their own, and to report back on where and how the system is failing, and the obstructions they face. They need to be milking this for all it's worth.

I'd like to be proved wrong, but I don't see any of them getting stuck in because they're not serious people. They won’t exploit the opportunities because they don’t know how the system works and aren't really curious enough to find out. Anderson and Tice are not intellects and Farage is lazy. They'll swan in and out to make the odd speech, and continue with the pointless populist tub-thumping punditry. As such, we'll get to the end of five years and there'll be nothing much to show for trouble.

MPs in minor parties don't have much power, but that's not really the point. As a collective they exert a power of their own, and Reform's group in parliament could be a gravity well of its own, in the same way that Caroline Lucas managed to punch above her weight on her own. This happens when you build credibility, but you can't do that if you treat the job as a social jolly (the way Farage behaved as an MEP).

In this, Farage reminds me of a clockwork mouse. You can wind him up to maximum tension and set him off, but you have no idea what direction he will go off in, and will then run around in random circles until he comes to a stop. It's entertaining to watch, but it serves no actual purpose.

To make use of parliamentary time, you ultimately have to get serious, put the work in, and produce something. But Farage only really knows how to do electioneering. You have to be able to build a team and lead it, and give it productive things to do. You have to fully engage. But ultimately, this kind of work bores Farage. He is not temperamentally suited to it, nor does he have the attention span.

As such, Reform will acquire a reputation as a bunch of blowhards and will fail to win the respect of their parliamentary colleagues. You might think this doesn't matter, but it does. People talk. They get the measure of you. And so do the press. Voters will get the message. Electing disruptors is one thing, but disruptors without purpose are not a serious prospect for government. As such, building a grassroots organisation may prove futile if it returns lazy chancers for MPs.

Nobody denies that Reform needed Farage to break into parliament, but the task was always one of building an organisation that could withstand his departure. The more immediate concern now, though, is whether the party can withstand his leadership, or rather, the lack of it.

As such, the right is in a state of stalemate, with no faction capable of championing or uniting the right, and there’s no useful outlet for political activism. Even my latest manifesto project is largely an academic exercise. The SDP is beavering away in the background, and the Tommy Robinson brigade are out on the streets making noise, but that’s it. Keir Starmer, having suspended the worst of his party’s cranks, looks set to win a second term by default.