The long shadow of Southport

Belfast’s past could be Britain’s future

The riots are over, the troublemakers are locked up, the think pieces are written. But this isn’t over. All of the underlying sentiments are as raw as ever and there is no indication from Keir Starmer that he understands what has happened and why. One gets a sense that he does not want to know. Meanwhile, the conveyor belt of show trials just looks hamfisted, tone-deaf, draconian and unfair.

As it happens, I keep a watchful eye on things like this. I’ve had one or two run-ins with the police for comments I’ve made on Facebook. It’s easy to make ill-advised remarks when among friends online.

Admittedly, implying that somebody should burn down the offices of South Gloucestershire Council was probably not the most erudite thing I’ve ever committed to the internet, but at the time, I’m pretty sure I meant it. This was about the time when I was challenging the council over its lawless bailiffs making up unlawful fees for council tax collection.

I can’t even remember what the other time was about. Two young female PCSOs called at the door to discuss what I’m sure were Blossom Hill fuelled tweets around the time of Brexit. Since I’d broken no laws and they clearly weren’t there to arrest me, I told them in less than polite terms where they could go.

With that in mind, I chose my words very carefully while following events of the last week. There’s also been a lot of personal growth since my unguarded remarks about the possible contents of a certain professor’s hard drive.

On immigration, though, if they’re intent on locking up everyone with a counter-orthodox opinion, then they’re going to need thousands more police officers. This sentiment is unlikely to be contained with exemplary prosecutions.

The reason for this is that locals don’t take very kindly authorities overriding local concerns and operating in secrecy when dumping third world immigration cheats in their backyard. It was only a matter of time before we saw the kind of direct action we’ve seen in Ireland lately.

It certainly has not helped matters that Labour has abandoned any attempt at deterrence, instead pegging their hopes on “smashing the criminal gangs”. But as one tweeter observed today, this is as likely to succeed as the war on drugs. For as long as there is profit to be made, criminals will continue to run the gauntlet.

Exacerbating public sentiment is an announcement that the use of military bases for detention will end and migrants will be “equitably distributed”. Whatever that means. In all probability, it means dumping migrants in left behind places like Mexborough rather than the leafy suburbs where liberals reside.

There is also the broader issue of immigration and integration. The mobs of armed Islamist gangs we saw patrolling the streets of our towns cannot be separated from the rising sectarianism in local politics. While lower working class white people (and gobshite bloggers) can expect a knock on the door from the police, we can expect all levels of government to “engage” with “community leaders” in Muslim areas.

At no point will we see any public admission that multiculturalism has failed, or any serious renewed attempt to stop the boats. When parliament returns from summer recess, they will talk about anything but. First on the agenda will be new amendments to online safety legislation, with accompanied finger-pointing at Nigel Farage, Russia and Tommy Robinson. Labour cannot solve problems it will go to extended lengths to avoid mentioning.

As such, I’m not very optimistic about the future. There is no sign of the state taking the issues seriously. There are off-ramps on the road we’re heading up but Starmer will put the pedal to the metal and race past each and every one of them.

The bottom line is that multiculturalism barely works at the best of times. For a little while, during the consumer credit boom, it kinda worked and people rubbed along together quite well, even though there were immigration anxieties. People are less concerned when everyone's getting a slice of the pie. But that just won't happen under this government.

The kind of growth we need to see simply cannot happen under a high tax regime, and it certainly cannot happen when the ruling party has an ideological determination to abolish cheap forms of transport and energy. Worse still, with living standards already declining, there simply won't be the disposable income to sustain the service sector jobs performed by immigrants. There'll be no money for Ubers and takeaways. Then you have a major problem with unemployable surplus males in urban centres. They will either turn to drugs or organised crime.

At that point you start to see an epidemic of street crime and growing mistrust between ethnic groups. We already have open gang warfare between ethnic groups along tribal lines but it's only going to get worse. As conditions deteriorate we'll see wealthier immigrants leaving our shores, leaving the dregs to fight it out between them.

It's also reasonable to assume, with rising tensions in the Middle East and ethnic tensions breaking out between Muslims and Hindus, we will see a surge of sectarianism, and we cannot rule out further rioting. The hate marches will likely continue and the sectarianism at the ballot box will worsen.

I also assume that with increasing numbers of African ferals aimlessly roaming the streets, that another Southport style atrocity is a statistical probability. The police will need to be on high alert for the duration. A WeThink poll this week suggests at least a third of the public are sympathetic to rioters, and it can no longer be assumed that localised outbreaks of violent protest are orchestrated by shadowy far right groups. If the government is intent on housing migrants in deprived white communities, all bets are off.

This, I think, could set in for the long haul. It is widely assumed that Labour’s incompetence and vindictiveness will cost them the election in 2029, but there’s no guarantee of that. The public is further right on immigration than the Tory party dare go, and Reform won’t step out of the way for them. I don't see the Tories being able to dislodge Labour.

With a truly obnoxious Labour government, and a dysfunctional Tory party unable to resolve its internal differences, it feels like there is no political remedy. Without a radical change of direction and genuine leadership emerging, it looks like we're on a slow march to Troubles style low-grade civil war. Labour can crack down on freedom of speech, but there is little they can do to quell the anger. Little by little, we are losing a fragile peace.