Making a lot of noise hasn’t done Reform any harm to date. You overstate the sophistication, intellect and attention span of the average British voter. However, I agree that getting a local operation on the ground in maybe 500 constituencies is probably the best way of starting to invest their windfall. Even more crucially they need a succession plan for a Reform world post Farage. I cannot think of anyone who ticks that box. Having said that all the UK parties have crap leaders and are in no better state.
I'm increasingly struggling to see a Reform victory as a possibility. The left will mobilise all its resources and there will be a vast campaign of tactical voting. Meanwhile, the right will be split down the middle as the Conservative Party refuses to die.
In large parts of the country, the Lib Dems will win on comfortable vote shares, while Reform and the Tories roughly share the spoils for second and third place.
I'm quite sure this is what happened in Piddington.
1. In English Parliamentary by-elections Kemi Badenoch is batting under 5%.
2. Holborn may finish them with the Westminster Conservative MPs where Lib Dems were second. If they all defect, Lib Dems become Official Opposition and LOTO.
3. Apart from visible humiliation, Kemi Badenoch loses 6 PMQs, front row reserved prestige seat, short money, advanced briefings before government statements, preferential BBC and other media treatment, etc. The meltdown can be total.
4. In the next general election, STOP LABOUR can become the issue and all those on board vote REFORM because of TINA.
5. At general elections (not by-elections) the 'marxist woke progressives' can not work together because on local level they hate each other. Labour hate Lib Dems hate Green hate Workers Party hate SNP hate Plaid hate (Muslim) Independent groups. They will compete out of spite not form an Anti-Farage voting block.
6. Reform will win and hopefully Tories wiped out at Westminster. Tories with excellent local councillors can regroup as The Lib Dems did post 2015 at local council level and produce excellent parliamentary candidates for election after next.
7. Meanwhile pray hard to Jesus Christ. The curses of Deuteronomy 28 verses 15 to 68 are at the door for the UK (which may break up rapidly) and for England.
Just been in a three hour home prayer/praise/thanksgiving/forgiveness/repentance meeting.
I pray God blesses your prayers George.
7 Days of National Humble Prayer and Repentance between May 1940 and Spring 1944, but FOUR of those were May 1940 to March 1941. We only turn to God when we are desperate.
There’s a lot of issues that are about to hit the UK.
Blackouts due to government energy failures.
Demands for war against Russia from bellicose governments.
Economic disaster due to government(s) mass migration.
Hopefully the above won’t happen at once.
Trust in the old parties is finished.
Burnham has to way up going to the country now (and risk a near 80 seat majority) or wait hoping in 2 years time Labour is popular.
It won’t happen.
Blackouts, war, or mass migration is destroying the chances of a return to Government. For the traditional parties, a return to Parliament with a big majority isn’t possible.
All the more important for Reform to be the sensible party, the ones who can say, we told you, and that we have a plan, and that we can trusted to see it through.
The bits you get right: 1. The need to build a patriotic alternative to the unions (The English Democrats have a union organisation, but it could grow a lot bigger and represent English workers much more widely), 2. The need to build grassroots infrastructure 3. The general sense these resources will be wasted. What you get wrong 1. The idea that TV is irrelevant. Actually we need a whole media infrastructure that operates differently to MSM. It’s not wasted effort to start creating that.
Some very funny satire in the post (or maybe it is just accurate prophesy).
My position is that Reform have to win the next election, finish this version of the Conservatives in Westminster, and then we come to what is needed most.
The many excellent sensible Conservative councillors and constituency members join Reform to improve it at least at local level, or they form a new grass roots Conservative Party to compete with much better right of centre candidates at the following general election.
We might get the New Conservatives (or maybe Traditional or Old Conservatives) in power and Reform in Opposition the election after next.
But the Lib Dems/Greens/Socialists in this Westminster Conservative Party are not going to cut it.
LOTO can not purge them in sufficient number without losing LOTO status (short money, resources, salary, advanced briefings, security protection, preferential media coverage, guaranteed space on BBC Question Time, Parliamentary time table in put, 6 questions at PMQs).
Burnham as PM and Ed Davy as LOTO? Then look at the lunatics on The Shadow Front Bench?
You may well want Reform to win the next election but the reality is if they do they will NOT have a big majority and will be destined to FAIL the country BIG time.
A thing to watch is that Reform are in first or second place (depending on which Opinion Poll on which day) in enough seats for a nice majority if they are FIRST but slim pickings if loads of second place finishes.
However, Labour (despite Burnham bounce) are very strong where they are strong and in a sorry state in half their 2024 seats when the average national poll was 35%.
They can kiss goodbye to minimum 131 seats unless they get back to 35%. Not even worth competing and putting local resources into it.
If on 25% national average they lose over 200 seats.
No Labour MP will go for a national alliance with Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, Workers Party, Your Party, Independent Group (Muslim party) if their seat is one of those sacrificed to the great progressive Stop Reform cause.
Making a lot of noise hasn’t done Reform any harm to date. You overstate the sophistication, intellect and attention span of the average British voter. However, I agree that getting a local operation on the ground in maybe 500 constituencies is probably the best way of starting to invest their windfall. Even more crucially they need a succession plan for a Reform world post Farage. I cannot think of anyone who ticks that box. Having said that all the UK parties have crap leaders and are in no better state.
If Farage goes, the next person in charge is Yusef.
Anyone that can usurp him has to have the nod of the financiers (or whoever is behind Reform).
I don’t see any further than the ex Tory’s that jumped ship.
Reform won’t survive with either option.
They need a big figure with no baggage, (that means no links to Middle East money/iffy billionaires).
A Reform win at the next election without Farage requires voter trust.
If Reform are represented by the wrong people, there won’t be any trust. If they do keep voter trust, they win.
I'm increasingly struggling to see a Reform victory as a possibility. The left will mobilise all its resources and there will be a vast campaign of tactical voting. Meanwhile, the right will be split down the middle as the Conservative Party refuses to die.
In large parts of the country, the Lib Dems will win on comfortable vote shares, while Reform and the Tories roughly share the spoils for second and third place.
I'm quite sure this is what happened in Piddington.
1. In English Parliamentary by-elections Kemi Badenoch is batting under 5%.
2. Holborn may finish them with the Westminster Conservative MPs where Lib Dems were second. If they all defect, Lib Dems become Official Opposition and LOTO.
3. Apart from visible humiliation, Kemi Badenoch loses 6 PMQs, front row reserved prestige seat, short money, advanced briefings before government statements, preferential BBC and other media treatment, etc. The meltdown can be total.
4. In the next general election, STOP LABOUR can become the issue and all those on board vote REFORM because of TINA.
5. At general elections (not by-elections) the 'marxist woke progressives' can not work together because on local level they hate each other. Labour hate Lib Dems hate Green hate Workers Party hate SNP hate Plaid hate (Muslim) Independent groups. They will compete out of spite not form an Anti-Farage voting block.
6. Reform will win and hopefully Tories wiped out at Westminster. Tories with excellent local councillors can regroup as The Lib Dems did post 2015 at local council level and produce excellent parliamentary candidates for election after next.
7. Meanwhile pray hard to Jesus Christ. The curses of Deuteronomy 28 verses 15 to 68 are at the door for the UK (which may break up rapidly) and for England.
I do pray every night, for other people.
God knows the problems we are challenged by the globalist evil but he has delivered Trump to destroy the evil - Trumps emergence wasn’t coincidental.
People hate Trump, but I thank God he’s in charge of the most powerful country in the world.
Just been in a three hour home prayer/praise/thanksgiving/forgiveness/repentance meeting.
I pray God blesses your prayers George.
7 Days of National Humble Prayer and Repentance between May 1940 and Spring 1944, but FOUR of those were May 1940 to March 1941. We only turn to God when we are desperate.
There’s a lot of issues that are about to hit the UK.
Blackouts due to government energy failures.
Demands for war against Russia from bellicose governments.
Economic disaster due to government(s) mass migration.
Hopefully the above won’t happen at once.
Trust in the old parties is finished.
Burnham has to way up going to the country now (and risk a near 80 seat majority) or wait hoping in 2 years time Labour is popular.
It won’t happen.
Blackouts, war, or mass migration is destroying the chances of a return to Government. For the traditional parties, a return to Parliament with a big majority isn’t possible.
Don't forget the massive debt bubble that must burst soon!
All the more important for Reform to be the sensible party, the ones who can say, we told you, and that we have a plan, and that we can trusted to see it through.
I sincerely hope they are sensible.
Farage demands total obedience. Thats sensible.
Both Lowe and Habib were removed. OK. They were undermining his authority. That’s sensible.
What’s the story with Yusef? He appears fire proof. That isn’t sensible.
One leader, two power bases. Thats madness.
The bits you get right: 1. The need to build a patriotic alternative to the unions (The English Democrats have a union organisation, but it could grow a lot bigger and represent English workers much more widely), 2. The need to build grassroots infrastructure 3. The general sense these resources will be wasted. What you get wrong 1. The idea that TV is irrelevant. Actually we need a whole media infrastructure that operates differently to MSM. It’s not wasted effort to start creating that.
What I want is a nuanced debate on the sensible right tv outlet. No other input required. Niche audience.
The BBC/Sky/Channel 4 provide the sophisticated nuance debate for The Left.
GB News is compelled to include the latter by Ofcom which spoils/prevents the debate on the right.
GB News has to show stuff like this:
https://x.com/HerdImmunity12/status/2102153072700961074
Started well but GBNews has been Ofcommed into conformity. It's no longer worth watching. That's just wasting time.
Abolishing Ofcom and laws outlawing freedom of speech is the top priority of any right of centre government.
Free Speech is vital to identify problems and debate solutions.
Dear Pete, some of your prose is quintessential.
Some very funny satire in the post (or maybe it is just accurate prophesy).
My position is that Reform have to win the next election, finish this version of the Conservatives in Westminster, and then we come to what is needed most.
The many excellent sensible Conservative councillors and constituency members join Reform to improve it at least at local level, or they form a new grass roots Conservative Party to compete with much better right of centre candidates at the following general election.
We might get the New Conservatives (or maybe Traditional or Old Conservatives) in power and Reform in Opposition the election after next.
But the Lib Dems/Greens/Socialists in this Westminster Conservative Party are not going to cut it.
LOTO can not purge them in sufficient number without losing LOTO status (short money, resources, salary, advanced briefings, security protection, preferential media coverage, guaranteed space on BBC Question Time, Parliamentary time table in put, 6 questions at PMQs).
Burnham as PM and Ed Davy as LOTO? Then look at the lunatics on The Shadow Front Bench?
You may well want Reform to win the next election but the reality is if they do they will NOT have a big majority and will be destined to FAIL the country BIG time.
A thing to watch is that Reform are in first or second place (depending on which Opinion Poll on which day) in enough seats for a nice majority if they are FIRST but slim pickings if loads of second place finishes.
However, Labour (despite Burnham bounce) are very strong where they are strong and in a sorry state in half their 2024 seats when the average national poll was 35%.
They can kiss goodbye to minimum 131 seats unless they get back to 35%. Not even worth competing and putting local resources into it.
If on 25% national average they lose over 200 seats.
No Labour MP will go for a national alliance with Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, Workers Party, Your Party, Independent Group (Muslim party) if their seat is one of those sacrificed to the great progressive Stop Reform cause.
Did I miss a meeting or don't Reform already have their own TV channel? Asking for a mate...