The enemy within

I’ve had my fair share of disagreements with the conservative right but since debate has moved on from Brexit, and on to more urgent concerns, I seem to be back in favour and I’m having to get used to people agreeing with me. That said, I still seem to upset with my views on Ukraine. I don’t see Russia as an especially pressing threat and we’ve got bigger problems with our own elites.

I don’t even know why this is controversial. Russia didn't make Europe shut down its baseload power stations. Russia didn't make Europe declare war on farming and fertiliser production. Russia didn't force Europe to import millions of Arabs and Africans. Russia didn't force Europe to abandon coal in favour of Russian gas. Russia didn't force Europe to embrace gay race communism. Russia didn't make Europe to export its manufacturing to China. Russia didn't force Europe to cripple its auto industry. Russia didn't force us to build windmills instead of power stations. Europe's political elites are a greater threat to us that Putin.

Moreover, I don’t think we are doing Ukraine any favours. A piece in the Kyiv Post last week dubbed Western tanks "overweight duds". They're sinking into the mud and they're turning out to be useless in combat - which is about what I expected. The war is now an artillery slog in which Russia is getting its production capabilities back on track while Europe is at least two years away from getting its act together. I've seen front line footage with Ukrainian troops saying that artillery ammunition is rationed. They're sitting ducks.

I have always opposed the prosecution of this war because I'm not remotely convinced that it's our problem, but even if it was, I don't think it's winnable. We simply haven't been forthcoming with the necessary kit. The UK has pretended to be generous by offloading surplus vehicles we would otherwise flog off, that were known to be useless. Tanks didn't arrive in sufficient numbers for the "spring offensive" and now they're being used as makeshift artillery - something they were never designed for and aren't good at.

It's now at a point where Ukraine has a critical equipment and manpower shortage so the most it can do is hold the line. Breaking through Russian lines seems unlikely. There isn't enough force mass. So by keeping the war effort on a drip feed, it's actually worse than not supplying Ukraine at all. We're keeping a war of attrition on life support, and all Ukraine can do is lob missiles into Russia risking further escalation - which is absolutely not in anyone's interests. This has to end now.

Meanwhile, we have David Cameron meddling in Gaza and banging the drum for a showdown with China, where again I find myself wondering what's in it for us? I do not support the British regime's meddling in Ukraine, I definitely don't support our meddling in Gaza, and I don't really care about the Pacific region either. If it's a problem, it's America's problem. We don't have a navy to speak of.

Ultimately, I don't have a dog in the fight when my number one enemy is the British political elites. A Pakistani flag today flies from Westminster Abbey, councils fly the nonce flag to mark "trans visibility day", while Arabs preach jihad in Trafalgar Square, Africans are shanking each other with zombie knives, and the politicians tell us the problem is a phantom "far right".

To me it seems like the more the establishment pushes us towards civil war, the more they try to start a wider war with Russia and China. We're being invaded by third worlders, and our own government, locally and nationally, is occupied by the woke Stasi, while the eco-zealots trash our energy supply. I want the British regime to lose. It is not on our side. Not a single British man should be sent to die for a corrupt, degenerate regime, to fight wars which are not remotely in our interests. If David Cameron wants to play general, let him join the Ukrainian army and leave us out of it.

I’m told that the point of the war is to keep degrading Russian military capabilities, but this is essentially volunteering Ukrainians as cannon fodder to fight a proxy war on our behalf, for the reward of joining NATO and the EU. Neither of which are assured. A foreignpolicy.com article by Max Bergmann sets out some of the challenges.

If EU leaders were really serious about membership for Ukraine, efforts to reform the bloc should already be underway. At the heart of the issue is the EU budget, which is dominated by two major elements: agricultural subsidies and development projects in poorer regions, which combined account for roughly 65 percent of the EU’s long-term budget. For both these issues, prospective Ukrainian membership is explosive. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe, with a per capita income of barely one-tenth of the EU average and less than half that of the EU’s poorest member, Bulgaria. Ukraine also now has vast infrastructure and reconstruction needs. To all of this, add one of the continent’s largest agricultural sectors that would suddenly be eligible for EU subsidies.

Were the EU’s budget and redistribution process to remain unchanged, Kyiv would immediately suck in a vast part of the EU budget, including funds now going to the bloc’s less affluent members in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. Many countries currently benefiting from EU funds would turn into net contributors overnight. If you think any of this will be a smooth process, then you don’t know much about European politics.

Given the current redistribution of funds within the EU, it’s no surprise that the biggest cracks in support for Ukrainian membership have come in Eastern Europe, where the EU’s net recipients are concentrated. In fact, the battle over giving Ukraine access to European agricultural markets has already started, long before a single euro in EU farming subsidies is reallocated: Following the invasion, Brussels supported Ukraine by allowing its grain and other agricultural products to enter the EU’s single market. Cheaper Ukrainian goods undercut farmers in neighbouring Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. Even though Ukraine was desperate for revenue, Poland violated EU rules and unilaterally blocked Ukrainian grain from entering Polish territory. The EU intervened with a compromise, allowing Ukrainian produce to enter the EU but requiring it to bypass five Eastern European countries most affected by the unwelcome competition.

It is also no surprise, then, that some of these Eastern European countries—which count among Ukraine’s biggest military and diplomatic backers—also oppose any serious effort to undertake the EU reforms that are a prerequisite for Ukraine to join. Not only do these countries potentially stand to lose substantial funds, but EU reforms to prepare the way for Ukrainian membership will also likely include streamlining EU decision-making rules, which could reduce individual members’ power, especially countries such as Hungary and Poland that have made liberal use of their veto power to influence EU decisions.

Economic and political conditions for the bloc are challenging enough, particularly now that Britain is no longer a contributor to EU coffers. Reform will prove difficult with so many conflicts of interest within the EU at a time when Eastern European solidarity is frayed. Add budgetary pressures, the rise of the populist right, inflation and energy costs, and those reforms may be impossible.

By the end of this, even if Ukraine is successful in repelling the Russian invaders, it may find itself in the same geopolitical position – between a rock and a hard place, only with most of its critical infrastructure destroyed, relying on highly conditional handouts – with neither EU nor NATO membership on the cards.

Worse still, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have both called for a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine underpinned by the principles of the EU’s Green Deal. That means a rapid move away from fossil fuels. The city built “solely to produce coal” is to be completely replanned around renewable energy generation and other “sustainable economic activities”. The very last thing Ukraine needs is more of Europe’s narcissistic delusions.

The EU, having provoked Russia and led Ukraine up the garden path, while totally insincere about EU accession, won’t take responsibility, and Ukraine will be left broken and humiliated. As I argued early on, a negotiated settlement may have prevented Ukraine’s destruction and made it easier to pivot away from Russia, but instead Ukraine will be cut off from Russia and left in limbo by the West – perhaps even leading to civil war.

Perhaps the election of Donald Trump might change the arithmetic and bring this pointless slaughter to an end. That is certainly my hope. Either way, I'm not volunteering to be machine-gunned to bits to defend gay race communism, net zero and whatever passes for “British values” among our degenerate elites. Our enemy lies within.