Lets be serious - messing with NI without a serious worked out alternative is just madness. The GFA effectively gives 4 groups a veto over any changes to NI's constitutional situation - the UK, RoI,.Unionists and Nationalists . Good luck convincing that lot of new ideas and good luck tearing up the GFA.without attracting international condemnation.
They should cut the crap on ECHR as well. the obvious fall back is to go back to 1997 - the UK remains a signatory but it is not part of everyday UK law. That requires reform of the Human Rights Act which is doable.
Reform's major problem is that while Nigel Farage is good at campaigning he is completely hopeless and not in the slightest bit interested in detail which is of course essential to good government.
Danny Kruger on the other hand may think he can do detail but on complex issues like the GFA.TCA and ECHR he is wilfully blind for as Donald Tusk remarked there is a special place in hell for those who campaigned for Brexit without even a sketch plan of how to carry it out safely.
It really is staggering, and one of the main reasons we are governed so badly, that there is not one politician with the experience, knowledge and metal ability to really understand these complex issues to even a smidgen of the level of Pete and his father.
Shanker Singham. The ideas man of the Legatum Institute.
If ever a man was trading whilst insolvent it was Singham. There wasn't a solitary working idea in that head.
Was it not Singham who came up with some plan involving Article XXIV. A brilliant plan from a brilliant mind were it not for the fact that it was bollocks.
Have to agree with you Pete on this one - it's a circle, that can't be squared. And, Kruger is part of the clever stupid corps who genuinely doesn't get it.
Interestingly, when Selmayer/Weyand & Barnier weaoponised the Border issue it's unlikely that even they thought things through that deeply.
Here's the rub - reunification of NI/RoI is growing stronger - it's likely that it will happen within 20-25 years if not before.
And, it is reunification in all its civil war glory that will blow up the Windsor Framework/NIP.
At the time of Brexit, UK & RoI were semi close to a working agreement at the technical Customs level via technologies and pragmatic border checks - the Brussels Hard Boys ( Selmayr) in connivence with Ollie Robbins and his euro sock puppets saw fit to Weaoponise the border for a short term abortion of a win called the NIP aka Windsor Agreement - a pyric victory if ever there was one.
So Kruger isn't bright enough to see this yet - A NI ‘free army’ of residual protestants will , I suspect never succumb to Dublin or Brussels - that's when the sticking plaster of the GFA & Windsor Agreement will come off & the EU much to its chagrin will have its own troubles on its doorstep for 30+ years.
I get the impression Kruger is being used by Farage, surprise, surprise!
Danny seems a decent guy, but an idealist, which is often seen on the left not so much on the right. Being in the Tory party probably clipped his wings and Farage is now allowing him to express all his idealist visions, letting him publish them (without backing) to see which ones are popular and/or viable. There was an interview I listened to yesterday which also stated that Kruger wanted to abolish quangos, which if true is another pointer to his idealistic tendencies. As Pete has often stated all these idealistic visions are a time waster when there is so much actually needed to do. Yes, much of what Blair did needs to be undone, but that can be in slow time, not the forefront of policy.
Reform needs to keep focussed on what will make a real difference, so energy is the most critical, followed by the cost of hiring (both financial and legislative) and massaging the books in any way needed to get the bond markets on board in the same way Meloni has achieved in Italy.
I wonder if Farage will be looking more at Holborn than Belfast until October 8th.
Betting odds in the by-election are Labour 1/8, Green 6 to 1, Workers Party (George Galloway) 100 to 1, Reform, 300 to 1, Conservatives 550 to 1 (Betting companies vary viz odds and odds change depending on weight of bets placed for each party) .
If the day after the leaders' speech at The Conservative Party Conference, Reform can push the Conservatives out of the top 5 by grabbing their 2024 vote, and if The Conservatives they lose their deposit, then it can hasten the collapse of the Westminster Party.
At which point any policy proposals are mute unless Reform or others take them for themselves.
I suspect if they collapse in Holborn (where they were second in 2024) that maybe 19 Conservative MPs will break to the Lib Dems (where Lib Dems were second in 2024).
Arundel and South Downs, Central Devon, East Grinstead and Uckfield, Exmouth and East Exeter, Godalming and Ash, Hamble Valley, Hampshire North East, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Honiton and Sidmouth, Maidstone and Malling, Mid Bedfordshire New Forest West, Romsey and Southampton, North Salisbury, South Devon, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Tewkesbury, Weald of Kent, and West Dorset.
Reform were second to Conservative MPs in these 9 seats Aldershot, Basildon and Billericay, Braintree, Castle Point, Clwyd East, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Havants Rayleigh and Wickford, Sittingbourne and Sheppey.
If there are more Royal stories, Strictly stories, England soccer victories (especially over Spain) or dreadful defeats, and if there are Westminster defections with Mea Culpe speeches in The House of Commons and Columns in the Telegraph/Times/Mail, then I think once again Northern Ireland will be ignored by the msm and UK public.
In the 1990s/early 2000s the BBC in England educated us more about South African politics than Scottish politics. Indeed more about South Africa geography.
In the 2020s the BBC informs us more about Ukraine than Northern Ireland.
We need a new George Best or Northern Irish Luke Littler to get the English public engaged.
In amity and with the greatest of respect Fiona, re-unify? This suggests that it was ever united.
In the 1100s there were well over 150 kingdoms in Ireland which had their king and local laws.
There were 9 over-kingdoms.
They were all at war with each other.
Then 853 years ago The (French speaking) Norman knights were invited in to help a prince (of one of many kingdoms on the island of Ireland) to help him regain what he claimed was his land. He never claimed all the rest of the kingdoms in Ireland.
I think the attraction of a 'united Ireland' is the fallacy that life will be simple and uncomplicated for those on the island of Ireland and in Britain.
We are more likely to get the break up to 9 or 150 kingdoms each seeking military alliances with the Russians, The CCP, The EU, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Westminster, the USA, Australia and anywhere there is an Irish Diaspora.
Rather than be simple, it will be 100 times this scenario with modern technology.
Diarmait vs. Tiernan (1152–1166)
In 1152, Diarmait Mac Murchada, the King of Leinster, abducted Derbforgaill, the wife of his bitter rival, Tiernan O'Rourke (King of Breifne).
Though Derbforgaill eventually returned to her husband, O'Rourke never forgave the insult and spent years seeking revenge.
In 1166, Diarmait’s main political ally, High King Muirchertach Mac Lochlainn, died.
The new High King, Ruaidrí Ua Conchobair (Rory O'Connor), sided with O'Rourke.
They marched on Leinster and stripped Diarmait of his kingdom
Diarmait fled Ireland in August 1166 to seek military help from King Henry II of England.
Diarmait tracked Henry II down in Aquitaine in France.
Henry was too busy with continental conflicts to intervene personally, but he swore an oath of fealty with Diarmait and gave him letters of mark.
This document allowed Diarmait to recruit from among Henry's subjects leading to an alliance with Richard de Clare (famously known as Strongbow) in Wales.
Diarmait offered Strongbow his daughter Aoife’s hand in marriage and the succession to the Kingdom of Leinster after his death.
He also recruited other prominent Cambro-Norman knights, including the FitzGeralds and FitzStephens, promising them land in Wexford
.The Invasion was in two stages in 1167 and 1169.
In 1169 at Bannow Bay, County Wexford, the Norman knights, archers, and men-at-arms landed under the command of Robert FitzStephen.
They completely overwhelmed the Irish forces, captured Wexford, paving the way for eventually the conquest of all Ireland by FRENCH speakers supported by Pope Adrian IV.
Henry II eventually had to conquer all Ireland (at least in theory and only achieved by Oiliver Cromwell) because he realised his simple 'fix-it' solution had got way out of hand creating a Strongbow who could challenge him in England.
If they EVER can answer the Irish Question, they will move the goalposts and change the question.
Some want Ireland no tax/low tax Singapore and others want a united MARXIST Ireland. Some want it ruled by the Druids and others by the Pope in Rome, others by The British monarch.
Agree. In amity John, you may want to read my reply to Fiona. People are seduced by the 'simplicity' of a simple solution. This is a fallacy. Ask Henry II.
Niall - of all people, with your own personal experience, even by 'osmosis' there are over 500,000 People of a certain persuasion who will never agree to Brussels dictat.
You may be right and you are certainly right that a Decree (not backed up a Cromwellian Army) will backfire, but....
Osmosis may go in a different direction i.e. pre 1169.
In the 1100s there were well over 150 kingdoms in Ireland which had their king and local laws.
There were 9 over-kingdoms.
They were all at war with each other.
They can each seek military alliances with the Russians, The CCP, The EU, Iran, India, Pakistan, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Westminster, the USA, Australia and anywhere there is an Irish Diaspora.
I don't really think going that far back is relevant and projecting forward to a part of Ireland being in alliance with Russia is not something I think likely.
Once again Pete North is on top of the detail.
Is Farage on board or not?
Lets be serious - messing with NI without a serious worked out alternative is just madness. The GFA effectively gives 4 groups a veto over any changes to NI's constitutional situation - the UK, RoI,.Unionists and Nationalists . Good luck convincing that lot of new ideas and good luck tearing up the GFA.without attracting international condemnation.
They should cut the crap on ECHR as well. the obvious fall back is to go back to 1997 - the UK remains a signatory but it is not part of everyday UK law. That requires reform of the Human Rights Act which is doable.
Reform's major problem is that while Nigel Farage is good at campaigning he is completely hopeless and not in the slightest bit interested in detail which is of course essential to good government.
Danny Kruger on the other hand may think he can do detail but on complex issues like the GFA.TCA and ECHR he is wilfully blind for as Donald Tusk remarked there is a special place in hell for those who campaigned for Brexit without even a sketch plan of how to carry it out safely.
It really is staggering, and one of the main reasons we are governed so badly, that there is not one politician with the experience, knowledge and metal ability to really understand these complex issues to even a smidgen of the level of Pete and his father.
Shanker Singham. The ideas man of the Legatum Institute.
If ever a man was trading whilst insolvent it was Singham. There wasn't a solitary working idea in that head.
Was it not Singham who came up with some plan involving Article XXIV. A brilliant plan from a brilliant mind were it not for the fact that it was bollocks.
Barnier and Varadkar were advised by senior British politicians, when negotiating the UK leaving the EU.
The EU was relaxed over the Irish border. It was a trading border of little value to the EU.
But senior UK politicians/traitors advised how to make it a crisis.
What was the aim of the politicians?
To make the UKs exit from the EU as difficult and disadvantageous as possible and bring the UK back into the globalist empire asap.
There wasn’t even the smell of consequences against the quislings.
If there had been, I’m sure they wouldn’t have been so cavalier in their despicable actions.
I don’t know why there is no mention of this travesty.
The idea that it was a difficult negotiation (over the Irish border) protects the political rodents over the advice they gave .
And who are these quislings? Please don’t include Ed Davey as he doesn’t have enough brains to have a headache.
There’s a lot of them if you check AI it’ll give you a list of the sleezebags.
Just searched. The usual suspects inc Blair and Starmer, Grieve, Soubry, et al.
Have to agree with you Pete on this one - it's a circle, that can't be squared. And, Kruger is part of the clever stupid corps who genuinely doesn't get it.
Interestingly, when Selmayer/Weyand & Barnier weaoponised the Border issue it's unlikely that even they thought things through that deeply.
Here's the rub - reunification of NI/RoI is growing stronger - it's likely that it will happen within 20-25 years if not before.
And, it is reunification in all its civil war glory that will blow up the Windsor Framework/NIP.
At the time of Brexit, UK & RoI were semi close to a working agreement at the technical Customs level via technologies and pragmatic border checks - the Brussels Hard Boys ( Selmayr) in connivence with Ollie Robbins and his euro sock puppets saw fit to Weaoponise the border for a short term abortion of a win called the NIP aka Windsor Agreement - a pyric victory if ever there was one.
So Kruger isn't bright enough to see this yet - A NI ‘free army’ of residual protestants will , I suspect never succumb to Dublin or Brussels - that's when the sticking plaster of the GFA & Windsor Agreement will come off & the EU much to its chagrin will have its own troubles on its doorstep for 30+ years.
I get the impression Kruger is being used by Farage, surprise, surprise!
Danny seems a decent guy, but an idealist, which is often seen on the left not so much on the right. Being in the Tory party probably clipped his wings and Farage is now allowing him to express all his idealist visions, letting him publish them (without backing) to see which ones are popular and/or viable. There was an interview I listened to yesterday which also stated that Kruger wanted to abolish quangos, which if true is another pointer to his idealistic tendencies. As Pete has often stated all these idealistic visions are a time waster when there is so much actually needed to do. Yes, much of what Blair did needs to be undone, but that can be in slow time, not the forefront of policy.
Reform needs to keep focussed on what will make a real difference, so energy is the most critical, followed by the cost of hiring (both financial and legislative) and massaging the books in any way needed to get the bond markets on board in the same way Meloni has achieved in Italy.
I wonder if Farage will be looking more at Holborn than Belfast until October 8th.
Betting odds in the by-election are Labour 1/8, Green 6 to 1, Workers Party (George Galloway) 100 to 1, Reform, 300 to 1, Conservatives 550 to 1 (Betting companies vary viz odds and odds change depending on weight of bets placed for each party) .
If the day after the leaders' speech at The Conservative Party Conference, Reform can push the Conservatives out of the top 5 by grabbing their 2024 vote, and if The Conservatives they lose their deposit, then it can hasten the collapse of the Westminster Party.
At which point any policy proposals are mute unless Reform or others take them for themselves.
I suspect if they collapse in Holborn (where they were second in 2024) that maybe 19 Conservative MPs will break to the Lib Dems (where Lib Dems were second in 2024).
Arundel and South Downs, Central Devon, East Grinstead and Uckfield, Exmouth and East Exeter, Godalming and Ash, Hamble Valley, Hampshire North East, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Honiton and Sidmouth, Maidstone and Malling, Mid Bedfordshire New Forest West, Romsey and Southampton, North Salisbury, South Devon, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Tewkesbury, Weald of Kent, and West Dorset.
Reform were second to Conservative MPs in these 9 seats Aldershot, Basildon and Billericay, Braintree, Castle Point, Clwyd East, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, Havants Rayleigh and Wickford, Sittingbourne and Sheppey.
If there are more Royal stories, Strictly stories, England soccer victories (especially over Spain) or dreadful defeats, and if there are Westminster defections with Mea Culpe speeches in The House of Commons and Columns in the Telegraph/Times/Mail, then I think once again Northern Ireland will be ignored by the msm and UK public.
In the 1990s/early 2000s the BBC in England educated us more about South African politics than Scottish politics. Indeed more about South Africa geography.
In the 2020s the BBC informs us more about Ukraine than Northern Ireland.
We need a new George Best or Northern Irish Luke Littler to get the English public engaged.
Ultimately the island of Ireland will reunify. Why prolong the agony? It's the only solution, the most logical of a very poor selection.
In amity and with the greatest of respect Fiona, re-unify? This suggests that it was ever united.
In the 1100s there were well over 150 kingdoms in Ireland which had their king and local laws.
There were 9 over-kingdoms.
They were all at war with each other.
Then 853 years ago The (French speaking) Norman knights were invited in to help a prince (of one of many kingdoms on the island of Ireland) to help him regain what he claimed was his land. He never claimed all the rest of the kingdoms in Ireland.
I think the attraction of a 'united Ireland' is the fallacy that life will be simple and uncomplicated for those on the island of Ireland and in Britain.
We are more likely to get the break up to 9 or 150 kingdoms each seeking military alliances with the Russians, The CCP, The EU, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Westminster, the USA, Australia and anywhere there is an Irish Diaspora.
Rather than be simple, it will be 100 times this scenario with modern technology.
Diarmait vs. Tiernan (1152–1166)
In 1152, Diarmait Mac Murchada, the King of Leinster, abducted Derbforgaill, the wife of his bitter rival, Tiernan O'Rourke (King of Breifne).
Though Derbforgaill eventually returned to her husband, O'Rourke never forgave the insult and spent years seeking revenge.
In 1166, Diarmait’s main political ally, High King Muirchertach Mac Lochlainn, died.
The new High King, Ruaidrí Ua Conchobair (Rory O'Connor), sided with O'Rourke.
They marched on Leinster and stripped Diarmait of his kingdom
Diarmait fled Ireland in August 1166 to seek military help from King Henry II of England.
Diarmait tracked Henry II down in Aquitaine in France.
Henry was too busy with continental conflicts to intervene personally, but he swore an oath of fealty with Diarmait and gave him letters of mark.
This document allowed Diarmait to recruit from among Henry's subjects leading to an alliance with Richard de Clare (famously known as Strongbow) in Wales.
Diarmait offered Strongbow his daughter Aoife’s hand in marriage and the succession to the Kingdom of Leinster after his death.
He also recruited other prominent Cambro-Norman knights, including the FitzGeralds and FitzStephens, promising them land in Wexford
.The Invasion was in two stages in 1167 and 1169.
In 1169 at Bannow Bay, County Wexford, the Norman knights, archers, and men-at-arms landed under the command of Robert FitzStephen.
They completely overwhelmed the Irish forces, captured Wexford, paving the way for eventually the conquest of all Ireland by FRENCH speakers supported by Pope Adrian IV.
Henry II eventually had to conquer all Ireland (at least in theory and only achieved by Oiliver Cromwell) because he realised his simple 'fix-it' solution had got way out of hand creating a Strongbow who could challenge him in England.
If they EVER can answer the Irish Question, they will move the goalposts and change the question.
Some want Ireland no tax/low tax Singapore and others want a united MARXIST Ireland. Some want it ruled by the Druids and others by the Pope in Rome, others by The British monarch.
I agree Fiona - it's the consequences of reunification that Brussels and Dublin have to worry about.
If the contagion spreads to other EU countries it's goodnight Vienna. ( in more ways than one).
Agree. In amity John, you may want to read my reply to Fiona. People are seduced by the 'simplicity' of a simple solution. This is a fallacy. Ask Henry II.
But ONLY when the time is right - it has to happen by osmosis and not by decree.
Niall - of all people, with your own personal experience, even by 'osmosis' there are over 500,000 People of a certain persuasion who will never agree to Brussels dictat.
By the time, through osmosis, Ireland becomes one country the EU will have ceased to exist!
I actually think the irony is that NI will be the straw that breaks the EU /camel back.
We must hope so, aided by the anti migrant IRA!!
Niall, If I understand matters, Danny Kruger is aiming to go in the opposite direction.
Pete has expressed his doubts.
We await Farage's papal bull on the actual policy.
If I understand matters, Danny Kruger is aiming to go in the opposite direction.
Pete has expressed his doubts.
You may be right and you are certainly right that a Decree (not backed up a Cromwellian Army) will backfire, but....
Osmosis may go in a different direction i.e. pre 1169.
In the 1100s there were well over 150 kingdoms in Ireland which had their king and local laws.
There were 9 over-kingdoms.
They were all at war with each other.
They can each seek military alliances with the Russians, The CCP, The EU, Iran, India, Pakistan, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Westminster, the USA, Australia and anywhere there is an Irish Diaspora.
I don't really think going that far back is relevant and projecting forward to a part of Ireland being in alliance with Russia is not something I think likely.