I’ve been reading Jeff Childer’s daily substacks on Things American for a while now - be aware he is very pro-Trump but his view on Iran is that it’s just one part of a much larger strategy, including the Gaza solution, depriving Hamas of arms, and punishing Europe. It’s mostly about using oil as leverage.
“ Remember, for something like 400 years, London has controlled insurance availability to the Strait. But after Trump launched the Iranian operation, they had a TDS-fueled temper tantrum and peaced out. To teach Trump a lesson. But London’s departure from Hormuz insurance leaves only the US. Which means the US decides (a) who gets an escort and (b) who gets insured. And by logical extension, who gets the oil. Can you see it yet? If the US is the only country providing either escorts or insurance, guess who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz? Correct, we do. As our chief executive, President Trump does. He will soon hold both de facto (US Navy escorts) and de jure (US insurance) control. To horrified European leaders watching all this become increasingly obvious, the message is unmistakable. Want your energy flowing again? Come to Washington.”
Probably the best summation so far of a complex scenario. However uncomfortable we are with the military option, we cannot be confident that the counter-factual alternative of negotiation aka appeasement aka wishful thinking would have worked. All we do know is that Britain is more screwed that it was before.
I’m sure President Trump has planned this for sometime
The CIA have put the groundwork in supporting rebellion amongst Irans non fanatical civilian population.
Air attacks alone may not win a war, but special forces in co operation with Iranian dissidents may allow Trump to put far fewer feet on the ground.
There has been no significant damage to Iranian oil refineries either. A huge target that would only be spared if the White House thought Irans government was to be replaced.
The move into Venezuela gave the USA a certain amount of independence of energy supply.
Iran is not much of a gamble and the money to be made from future energy control is attractive too.
Especially if a new prediction of a cooling planet over the next 20 years or so, is correct.
If you think Iran is a sane society check out Imam Mahdi (a significant person in Irans Islamic history).
If things go to plan Trump has spared the world a limited but definitely nuclear war between Iran and Israel.
If things don’t go to plan, it’s still given the world a few years of non nuclear conflict (unless China decides to get involved).
Elite corruption, short-termism and cultural decay leave the West vulnerable or complicit in endless, Biblically-primitive, grotesquely vicious Middle-Eastern tribal slaughterfests
I’ve been reading Jeff Childer’s daily substacks on Things American for a while now - be aware he is very pro-Trump but his view on Iran is that it’s just one part of a much larger strategy, including the Gaza solution, depriving Hamas of arms, and punishing Europe. It’s mostly about using oil as leverage.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/
“ Remember, for something like 400 years, London has controlled insurance availability to the Strait. But after Trump launched the Iranian operation, they had a TDS-fueled temper tantrum and peaced out. To teach Trump a lesson. But London’s departure from Hormuz insurance leaves only the US. Which means the US decides (a) who gets an escort and (b) who gets insured. And by logical extension, who gets the oil. Can you see it yet? If the US is the only country providing either escorts or insurance, guess who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz? Correct, we do. As our chief executive, President Trump does. He will soon hold both de facto (US Navy escorts) and de jure (US insurance) control. To horrified European leaders watching all this become increasingly obvious, the message is unmistakable. Want your energy flowing again? Come to Washington.”
Probably the best summation so far of a complex scenario. However uncomfortable we are with the military option, we cannot be confident that the counter-factual alternative of negotiation aka appeasement aka wishful thinking would have worked. All we do know is that Britain is more screwed that it was before.
I’m sure President Trump has planned this for sometime
The CIA have put the groundwork in supporting rebellion amongst Irans non fanatical civilian population.
Air attacks alone may not win a war, but special forces in co operation with Iranian dissidents may allow Trump to put far fewer feet on the ground.
There has been no significant damage to Iranian oil refineries either. A huge target that would only be spared if the White House thought Irans government was to be replaced.
The move into Venezuela gave the USA a certain amount of independence of energy supply.
Iran is not much of a gamble and the money to be made from future energy control is attractive too.
Especially if a new prediction of a cooling planet over the next 20 years or so, is correct.
If you think Iran is a sane society check out Imam Mahdi (a significant person in Irans Islamic history).
If things go to plan Trump has spared the world a limited but definitely nuclear war between Iran and Israel.
If things don’t go to plan, it’s still given the world a few years of non nuclear conflict (unless China decides to get involved).
Remind me why any of this is America’s problem to solve, with American blood and American money? Let alone UK/European blood and money.
You seem to accept the Israeli case uncritically.
Anyone defending Israel at this stage isn't on our side and has no credibility.
All we gain from these Zi0 NeoCon wars is high inflation and waves and waves of refugees.
Iran was no threat to the U.S. they do not have nuclear weapons, they invited inspection to come in and check
Israel has NOT signed the Nuclear non proliferation treaty Iran is a signatory
Look at the funding of the Israeli lobby to politicians in the UK and the U.S.
this is totally illegal war, was not put to congress
Trump is a raving lunatic totally under the control of Netanyahu, he is terrified of him
You would do well to listen to
Colonel Douglas MACGREGOR
Scott Ritter
Professor John MEIRSHEIMER
Larry Wilkerson
Just for total clarity are you a plane spotter, AvGeeks or Aviation Enthusiasts!🤓
Judging by the noise this morning, he is against the noise abatement society. :-)
Lots happening for Pete:
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/25979111.bombers-swindon-us-given-use-raf-fairford/
"Capital Hill is Israeli occupied territory" ~ Patrick Buchanan
Elite corruption, short-termism and cultural decay leave the West vulnerable or complicit in endless, Biblically-primitive, grotesquely vicious Middle-Eastern tribal slaughterfests
Exactly right, Pete. Spot on.
Thank me later
https://youtu.be/ZZg6hirk9r0
https://youtu.be/Izn9hmveRCY
https://youtu.be/B_47Un6QDUg
https://x.com/suppressednws1/status/2037699139685814299?s=46&t=TIG23fNTotpzFOpWid227Q
https://www.youtube.com/live/vlQ152SaevU?si=PCc5k4RjHlV1Gufc