How Badenoch can save her party from extinction

Nobody reads manifestos and nobody cares about policy. That’s what people tell me. Politics is all about vibes, they say. To say such things, though, is to miss the point. Confidence is a vibe, and confidence is not something that can be faked. Bravado and bluster is not the same thing.

Real confidence comes from knowing what you’re doing and why. I’ve known this in my professional career. I’ve never been more powerful in a role than when I know what is required, have a firm idea how to do it, and the desire to do it well. You can try to fake it, but eventually you get found out. It only takes a little bit of expert scrutiny to expose you as a fraud.

We know this to be true of politics too. The politicians you sit up and take notice of are the ones who’ve put the work in and mastered their brief. I may not like Wes Streeting all that much, but I can respect his is a man to takes his job seriously.

This is literally the only reason anyone is paying attention to Robert Jenrick. He’s not dazzlingly charismatic. He’s not a showman. He’s just someone who has a bit of personal direction, and as such, is getting results.

He hasn’t done this alone, though. His platform has some serious people behind it, and what gives him the edge is the policy research behind him, and the fact he’s bothered to learn it. It gives him his own authority.

In recent weeks we’ve seen similar energy from Kemi Badenoch. She’s behind the curve, but she is showing signs of getting up to speed. She has put her best people to work to figure out a resolution to the ECHR question. It’s given her a new found confidence. This is essential. A party cannot have confidence is its leader doesn’t.

The lesson, then, is not that policy is for public consumption. It’s part of it, for sure, but it’s so that you yourself know what you are doing and why. It means on any given issue of the day, you can say what is really going wrong, and what needs to be fixed. That’s what gives you the authentic “vibe” of authority.

Contrast this with Reform, which has yet to produce a single subject expert, even on the subject of immigration. On the issue of migrant dinghies, the policy approach varies according to which Reform MP you speak to. The consequence of this long-standing incoherence is that nobody serious thinks Reform is up to the job. Reform is polling well as a protest party, but very few people see it as a viable prospective government. We’re just at a point where exasperation and cynicism run so deep that people don’t believe they could be worse than the rest.

On that basis, this is the Tory party’s last window of opportunity. We can safely say that Reform will not commit to serious policy. Populist parties never do. They prefer the agility that comes from keeping it vague. Populism is to policy as oil is to water. You see the occasional Spectator article claiming that insiders are working on policy for the party, but every time Reform makes an announcement, we are served up more of the same simplistic populist slop. I’m sure they think they are working on policy but I don’t think they know what policy actually is.

The opportunity for the Tories, then, is to simply outclass them. This is entirely possible. There are some hardworking, credible conservative MPs, not least Nick Timothy and Chris Philp. Chris Philp is pressing on the Deliveroo/Just Eat dimension to illegal immigration. Something this blog has highlighted in some depth. Knowledge driven campaigning gets results. Contrast that with Reform MPs. Goodness knows what they actually do with their time.

Much of this will turn on what Kemi Badenoch turns up with in September. It will be politically difficult for her if she concludes that leaving the ECHR is more trouble that it’s worth. The tabloids and the Telegraph have distilled our deportation woes down to the ECHR when in fact the problem lies with British judges and British law.

In that eventuality she will have her work cut out, but it is an arguable case. No government wants the distraction of multilateral talks over Northern Ireland in order to deal with dinghies in Dover, especially if there’s the chance it won’t even work. Whatever Badenoch concludes is less important than showing that she knows what she is doing.

My central assertion is that credibility matters. If you can turn the heads of opinion influencers, and make people give you a second look, you are in with a chance. There are many reasons why the Tories are not seen as credible, not least their woeful record in office, and the suspicion that the party is overrun with wet blanket liberals, but if a leader can slam a manifesto on the table with real confidence and say “This is what we’re doing” they can break with the past and put their troublemakers on notice. They will fall into line if their jobs depend on it. None of them wants to have to get a real job.

Some of you ask why I’m even slighly invested in this. Why even care about the fate of the Tory party? Why not let it die? Those are good questions. I think it’s because I’ve reluctantly concluded the obvious. There is no new force in politics on the horizon. There is no Ukip revival. If a Rupert Lowe party pops up it will flop, and any nationalist party will be consumed by its antisemitism.

As such, right-leaning voters have two choices. Either to attempt a Tory resurrection, or back a slopulist party that wouldn’t have the first idea how to fix anything, and would create as many problems as it solves (if any).

Were it that Reform were remotely serious, nobody would be giving the Tories a second look, least of all me, but ultimately you have to work with what you’ve got. There is the suggestion that the party would fare well under new leadership. I understand that. But regardless, Kemi Badenoch is the leader for now, like it or lump it.

The polls are not looking good for the Tories. While polls this far out from an election aren’t much of a useful predictor, Badenoch surely realises that, for members, they are an indicator of her performance. She does not have long to get results. She is replaceable, and for once, there is an obvious replacement. If then, she is going to turn things around, she has to build self-confidence, confidence in her abilities, and confidence in her party. Policy is key to that.

Policy ultimately lets us know whether they’re serious or not. It lets us know whether they’ve understood the issues. It lets us know if they have listened. It lets us know if they have a clue. As we edge closer to an election fair minded voters will contrast the showbiz glam of Reform with the Tory party. If, in the Tories, they see quiet competence, strong local candidates, and a newfound confidence in their abilities, they will save themselves from oblivion.

By neglecting policy, Reform have left the goals wide open for a Tory comeback. Where Reform offers gimmicks and slogans, Badenoch can offer solutions. In some respects, it has never been easier for the Tories to come back from the brink. The right is primarily concerned with immigration and are desperate for coherent immigration policies. Bizarrely, Reform has moderated its line on immigration, leaving hardliners wondering what the point of it is. Badenoch can easily position her party to the right of Reform and she doesn’t even have to go overboard to do it.

What I’ve find in my study of immigration issues is that much can be repaired with careful, targeted interventions, not least fixing Indefinite Leave to Remain, but also with proper enforcement of existing laws, not least HMO inspections. Drastic gestures like leaving the ECHR are less important than reforming the judiciary and overhauling the asylum system. Voluntary remigration policies can be implemented just by enhancing and promoting existing schemes.

The biggest results will come through the cumulative effect of a comprehensive policy programme, comprising of largely uncontroversial and sensible measures that only open borders lunatics would oppose. This will be an exercise in policy engineering, not vacuous populist slogans. If Badenoch is the engineer she claims to be, she shouldn’t find this difficult.

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