Very good post young North. I enjoyed the read and I have been asking questions on how durable Reform is after the big win. You make some good points however you have fallen into a trap I have noticed.
You have failed to realise black Swan events, Human stupidity and a whole host of other problems that could go wrong for the mainstream.
You write as if life will continue on as usual. That there will be no changes. Yet if we follow this pattern of logic, there would have been no 2008, no Brexit, no covid, no Ukraine.
Life would have continued in an end of history paradigm.
Yet as Harold McMillan says, "events dear boy, events."
Who knows - maybe there will be another second great depression that ultimately crushes Starmer and leads to a major crisis in the country. Maybe America implodes into Civil War. Maybe another virus can crop up.
Maybe such events help Farage as they already have so far...
Always be on the look out and prepare for these possibilities because I can tell you one thing - had life rumbled on as normal, Farage would not be sitting in Parliament with four other MPs right now...
My information is there will be a stock market crash / readjustment in Oct and a push for war at the same time with possible nuclear standoff or attack somewhere. Those that seek to thwart reform and a return to the rule of Law will do anything to stop Trump, and that includes those in the UK, as has already happened in 2016 and 2020. Post the Trump win will see the banks crash as the silver manipulation catches up and the derivatives market makes them all insolvent, or more correctly their current insolvency and criminality catches up with them. Countries will return to gold like Argentina is doing at present.
My theory at present is the timing of this election was no accident. Two events are in play in the UK. One is to ensure Labour is front and Centre for the coming events in the immediate future which will destroy Labour forever. The other is to cleanse or destroy the Tories by exposing who they really are. UK is behind the US at present in general public understanding of world events.
Farage will not reform anything. It will more than likely be the military, as Labour take our civil Institutions that are barely fit for purpose now, to breaking point.
I came to a couple of the Harrogate meets what seems like a lifetime ago and loved it. But Events are not isolated to each country. Everything is connected and nothing is coincident. Everything that is happening now is for a reason and not necessarily a domestic reason..
Those of us with experience of being members of UKIP, (for a short time) experienced that first hand.
Anyone who tried to bring UKIP onto an intellectual foundation, were cast adrift because they were seen as a threat to Farage's leadership. I hope that he can change, but ...
Certainly, as you wrote, a merger between Reform and the Tories would be for the birds. I wonder if there will be efforts behind the scenes to try and 'reunify' Reform with rump UKIP. At least for the former to get its mitts on the more fleshed out policy ideas. (Although, I suppose Reform could just download them and get ChatGPT to rewrite them, so it doesn't look like they just yoinked them out of UKIP's hand.)
If I had my way, anyone wishing to comment on electoral reform would have to take an exam on it, to show that they had a basic understanding of the main systems.
Very good post young North. I enjoyed the read and I have been asking questions on how durable Reform is after the big win. You make some good points however you have fallen into a trap I have noticed.
You have failed to realise black Swan events, Human stupidity and a whole host of other problems that could go wrong for the mainstream.
You write as if life will continue on as usual. That there will be no changes. Yet if we follow this pattern of logic, there would have been no 2008, no Brexit, no covid, no Ukraine.
Life would have continued in an end of history paradigm.
Yet as Harold McMillan says, "events dear boy, events."
Who knows - maybe there will be another second great depression that ultimately crushes Starmer and leads to a major crisis in the country. Maybe America implodes into Civil War. Maybe another virus can crop up.
Maybe such events help Farage as they already have so far...
Always be on the look out and prepare for these possibilities because I can tell you one thing - had life rumbled on as normal, Farage would not be sitting in Parliament with four other MPs right now...
My information is there will be a stock market crash / readjustment in Oct and a push for war at the same time with possible nuclear standoff or attack somewhere. Those that seek to thwart reform and a return to the rule of Law will do anything to stop Trump, and that includes those in the UK, as has already happened in 2016 and 2020. Post the Trump win will see the banks crash as the silver manipulation catches up and the derivatives market makes them all insolvent, or more correctly their current insolvency and criminality catches up with them. Countries will return to gold like Argentina is doing at present.
My theory at present is the timing of this election was no accident. Two events are in play in the UK. One is to ensure Labour is front and Centre for the coming events in the immediate future which will destroy Labour forever. The other is to cleanse or destroy the Tories by exposing who they really are. UK is behind the US at present in general public understanding of world events.
Farage will not reform anything. It will more than likely be the military, as Labour take our civil Institutions that are barely fit for purpose now, to breaking point.
I came to a couple of the Harrogate meets what seems like a lifetime ago and loved it. But Events are not isolated to each country. Everything is connected and nothing is coincident. Everything that is happening now is for a reason and not necessarily a domestic reason..
Some good point here
Great summary thanks.
As Dodgy Geezer wrote today, on TT: "we are having a change of Sales and Marketing" and that just about sums up the Starmer victory.
As I wrote on Turbulent Times today - " The trouble is Farage has no idea just how bad a team player and party leader he is."
Those of us with experience of being members of UKIP, (for a short time) experienced that first hand.
Anyone who tried to bring UKIP onto an intellectual foundation, were cast adrift because they were seen as a threat to Farage's leadership. I hope that he can change, but ...
Certainly, as you wrote, a merger between Reform and the Tories would be for the birds. I wonder if there will be efforts behind the scenes to try and 'reunify' Reform with rump UKIP. At least for the former to get its mitts on the more fleshed out policy ideas. (Although, I suppose Reform could just download them and get ChatGPT to rewrite them, so it doesn't look like they just yoinked them out of UKIP's hand.)
If I had my way, anyone wishing to comment on electoral reform would have to take an exam on it, to show that they had a basic understanding of the main systems.