Election fever: don't believe the hype

I’m something of a broken record at the moment. I keep pouring buckets of cold water on some of the loftier delusions of Reform supporters. I can’t help it though. I’m in the business of political analysis, not propaganda. I’m just not swept away by Farage mania and I don’t believe any of the polls for a nanosecond.

In any case, nobody remembers what a party polls at. What matters is seats, and I’m still expecting Reform to come up short. Farage might win Clacton, and maybe a four more at a pinch, and that just doesn’t rate. It’ll be more to do with low turnout than anything. I doubt they’ll do better than Ukip in 2015 - the last time the media was in the grip of Farage fever. Exposure does not necessarily translate into seats.

I think, on the whole, the Tories will do better in terms of seats than many are predicting, Labour will do worse, and if it is the case that Tory votes are also bleeding off to the Lib Dems, then they might enjoy something of a revival. I don’t recall an election ever being this unpredictable.

What cements my doubts about Reform, though, is not based on deduction. It’s more of a hunch. I remember how excitable Farage fanboys were in 2015, and I’m getting the same vibe now. Meanwhile, Farage is having to fend off aggressive media smears, and throwing candidates under the bus. It exposes a certain Ukipesque amateurism that goes with any Farage led effort. The closer we get to polling day, the more it starts to unravel.

When you consider the inherent electoral ceiling of dog-whistle populism, the Marmite nature of Farage, the demographics who like him, and without Brexit in the frame, it just doesn’t smell like the kind of national movement that’s going to up-end politics, same as Labour’s poll lead doesn’t smell right either.

Course, many would point out that I went to bed early that night in 2016 on the assumption that we’d lost the referendum. Vote Leave had run such an odious, incompetent campaign that I didn’t dare hope. All the same, winning by a margin of less than two percent almost vindicates my instincts.

But then referendums aren’t elections. With elections, we have certain precedents. I feel quite sure about my hunch this time. Farage hasn’t changed. His methods are the same. His shtick is the same. He may be popular, and people may agree with him, but for many, he’s still a television novelty act.

Whether I’m right or not, though, hardly matters. I still think that, either way, Reform is a busted flush. It’s actually worse for Farage if Reform does well as he’ll have to manage a group of unvetted wildcards who can potentially embarrass him or cause internal friction. But it’s the lack of long term purpose that will be Reform’s downfall.

Reform and Ukip (as was) are very different animals. Ukip was a single issue party built for a long haul campaign with strong local roots. Reform, however, is a single use vessel managed from the centre. It exists with the sole intent of maximising the damage to the Tory party, after which it has no function, and no future.

The bottom line is that Reform is not going to wipe the Tories out, nor will it (with so few MPs) be able to call the shots or force a merger with the Tory right. If Tory MPs made it through this cull then their careers are as safe as safe gets, and they won’t risk letting Farage take control. By that measure, Reform will have failed on all counts.

After the election, the Tories will move marginally to the right, even if the One Nation wets are in control, because that's what the Tory party does in opposition, but only to a point. Farage will no doubt attempt to double down on the threat to finish off the Tories next time around unless they adopt a certain stance, but the Tory party will resist this to the last, knowing that it will benefit electorally from the awfulness of Labour.

Meanwhile Reform, will do none of the work necessary to grow into something more sustainable. Conceivably it could marginally increase its number of MPs in 2029, but could just as easily stagnate as the public grows weary of Farage's limited repertoire.

This dysfunction on the right, in all probability, means that Labour will cling on to power in 2029. Reform will be accused of splitting the vote, and the Tory party is unlikely to be electable because it's doubtful they can find a leader who will capture the public imagination. The right (insofar as the Tories are right wing) will be locked in stalemate, and Farage’s populism isn’t popular enough to go it alone.

The Tories will more than likely find a safe choice as a caretaker. They will learn all the wrong lessons. They could decide the path to victory lies with stealing votes from the Lib Dems. If there's a wrong end of the stick, Tories will grasp it with both hands, thus there doesn’t look to be any mileage in entryism, especially if the party curtails the right of members to choose the leader.

I take the view that we cannot afford another repeat cycle with the Tories, and we can be reasonably assured that Farage will squander any influence he accumulates by not having a coherent strategy or policies to push. It is likely that Farage will be weaker as an insider, not least because containment strategies will work, and because Farage will struggle to move the vote share dial beyond 20%.

Listening to the plotting on the right, the presumption is that Reform will do well enough to drag the Tories back to the right, and by 2029, there will be a Farage influenced entity that can sweep to power. This is wishful thinking. Chaos and division seem much more likely. Farage just isn’t the man to deliver.

With that in mind, we need a battle-ready alternative by 2034, fielding a full ticket of candidates. Ten years is an achievable timeframe. If Reform is going to create a political vacuum, it is we who must fill it, lest that space be occupied by yet another dilettante millionaire timewaster.

To that end, it looks like the SDP is the most coherent foundation. Britain is not yet ready for a hardcore nationalist party, but the SDP is a party that seeks to govern Britain as a homeland, and I feel it best reflects what the broader public wants from a party. As a country we are not free market radicals, nor are we socialists. Britain is at its best when all the concerns are in balance, which is what the SDP seeks to achieve. The country will not vote for reheated Thatcherism any more than it will vote for the radicalism of the left.

It's easy to get carried away with Reform mania, but all of the hype is based on deeply flawed MRP polling, which is returning wildly different results, with such a margin of error that, in this election, with such a fragmented electorate, the technique is next to useless. It is a safe bet the Reform will not live up to the hype, and something that blew up this quickly, can evaporate just as fast.

The lesson we must learn from the demise of the Tory party is that parties are very easily swept away when they have no firm local roots. This is why the Tories will under-perform. It is also why Reform will under-perform. If we want something with longevity that can achieve lasting change, it will need firm foundations. It is we who will have to build them.