The success or failure of Reform is much harder to judge compared with the fate of the other parties.
I sense that Labour will win but not with the huge majority being forecast by the "polling" companies who are not actually polling people at all. They are using "computer models" to make predictions. We already know how well that has worked in the past for things like predicting "climate change" and even previous elections. We were informed sagely that Ed Miliband was going to be PM weren't we?
The other thing in doubt is how many people will just stay at home, either out of apathy and ignorance or through such disgust that they will refuse even to participate in a political system that has all but destroyed our nation over the previous several decades.
I hope that a lot of people are going to vote Reform just to give the establishment a bloody nose, but actually, I doubt that it will be enough to translate into winning many seats. I still believe the expected Labour majority is overstated and many people will still hold their nose whilst ticking the Tory box on their ballot because they know that a Labour government is going to make a bad situation so much worse.
If social media buzz was a credible predictor of electoral success, Corbyn would've won in 2017. As you say, once the echo chamber effect is discounted, it doesn't mean a thing. I think many Reform voters will be disappointed.
This election has a similar whiff to 1983, where the then-new SDP, featuring heavyweights like Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams and Dr. David Owen, were tipped to change the face of UK politics in the face of considerable political turmoil over inflation, civil unrest in Brixton and Toxteth, the Falklands conflict and cold war fears of armageddon. It turned out to be a nothing burger back then and they were far more organised and disciplined than Reform are today. On the other hand, people are less educated and informed today; the electioneering soundbite appears to be the order of the day. It will be interesting.
I'm voting Reform today, purely because it's the only choice that allows me to maintain a little personal integrity given how much I've been moaning about the 3 major parties the last 20 years.
I think we are more informed than ever. Whether the information is valid? Re Social Media, we look for sympathetic opinions, we are tribal people. Those on the Telegraph and Spectator seek the like minded and lately are bitterly disappointed. I have long ignored GBNews because it is that very bubble of preaching to the converted; Youtubes only persevered with for so long before being swiped left. In effect the MSM and SM cancel each other out. Hence the cul de sac like substacks. Have a look at Free Speech Backlash for maybe a better way.
I've been round the block a few times, visited and worked in 70 countries, looking back at Blighty from afar. Johnny Overseas thinks we are all Londoners with a few kilt wearing eccentrics up in the cold wet bit. They know we, when we're not inventing stuff and dominating Pop music and rock, tend to mount up and rush off overseas with guns and jets at the drop of a hat and we're not even of latin temperament.
So I claim some perspective.
To say that Reform is laying off Islam for votes or funding is callow. They haven't canvassed for their support and there is quite a strong sense of fair play among the young Afro and Asian Brit. Driven by? Anglification? Their white school chums?
Support is being offered, not harvested. To those with instincts, that Islam is a false flag bogueyman is obvious distraction by a subtle insidious left. The simple folk will fall for it and look in the wrong direction, or so they expect.
This article, awash with apparently received opinion is adrift. Opinions are for football scores, soon proven or not. Instinct swats a fly without conscious aiming, senses there are things going wrong, locks that door and closes that window as an afterthought. Changes that X on the ballot paper wondering why. The shy, hugging their surprise vote, can release it into the wild and not even get blamed for it.
The success or failure of Reform is much harder to judge compared with the fate of the other parties.
I sense that Labour will win but not with the huge majority being forecast by the "polling" companies who are not actually polling people at all. They are using "computer models" to make predictions. We already know how well that has worked in the past for things like predicting "climate change" and even previous elections. We were informed sagely that Ed Miliband was going to be PM weren't we?
The other thing in doubt is how many people will just stay at home, either out of apathy and ignorance or through such disgust that they will refuse even to participate in a political system that has all but destroyed our nation over the previous several decades.
I hope that a lot of people are going to vote Reform just to give the establishment a bloody nose, but actually, I doubt that it will be enough to translate into winning many seats. I still believe the expected Labour majority is overstated and many people will still hold their nose whilst ticking the Tory box on their ballot because they know that a Labour government is going to make a bad situation so much worse.
Not keen on forecasting or whataboutery, but your prognostications have the ring of credibility, O Sage
If social media buzz was a credible predictor of electoral success, Corbyn would've won in 2017. As you say, once the echo chamber effect is discounted, it doesn't mean a thing. I think many Reform voters will be disappointed.
This election has a similar whiff to 1983, where the then-new SDP, featuring heavyweights like Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams and Dr. David Owen, were tipped to change the face of UK politics in the face of considerable political turmoil over inflation, civil unrest in Brixton and Toxteth, the Falklands conflict and cold war fears of armageddon. It turned out to be a nothing burger back then and they were far more organised and disciplined than Reform are today. On the other hand, people are less educated and informed today; the electioneering soundbite appears to be the order of the day. It will be interesting.
I'm voting Reform today, purely because it's the only choice that allows me to maintain a little personal integrity given how much I've been moaning about the 3 major parties the last 20 years.
I think we are more informed than ever. Whether the information is valid? Re Social Media, we look for sympathetic opinions, we are tribal people. Those on the Telegraph and Spectator seek the like minded and lately are bitterly disappointed. I have long ignored GBNews because it is that very bubble of preaching to the converted; Youtubes only persevered with for so long before being swiped left. In effect the MSM and SM cancel each other out. Hence the cul de sac like substacks. Have a look at Free Speech Backlash for maybe a better way.
I've been round the block a few times, visited and worked in 70 countries, looking back at Blighty from afar. Johnny Overseas thinks we are all Londoners with a few kilt wearing eccentrics up in the cold wet bit. They know we, when we're not inventing stuff and dominating Pop music and rock, tend to mount up and rush off overseas with guns and jets at the drop of a hat and we're not even of latin temperament.
So I claim some perspective.
To say that Reform is laying off Islam for votes or funding is callow. They haven't canvassed for their support and there is quite a strong sense of fair play among the young Afro and Asian Brit. Driven by? Anglification? Their white school chums?
Support is being offered, not harvested. To those with instincts, that Islam is a false flag bogueyman is obvious distraction by a subtle insidious left. The simple folk will fall for it and look in the wrong direction, or so they expect.
This article, awash with apparently received opinion is adrift. Opinions are for football scores, soon proven or not. Instinct swats a fly without conscious aiming, senses there are things going wrong, locks that door and closes that window as an afterthought. Changes that X on the ballot paper wondering why. The shy, hugging their surprise vote, can release it into the wild and not even get blamed for it.
Still wouldn't be surprised if reform end up with zero seats themselves. First past the post is a cruel mistress.