Andy Burnham has suggested that all options are on the table as regards Britain’s relationship with the EU - including, according to Westminster gossip, restoring freedom of movement.
I don’t know how much of this I take seriously. I keep in mind the entire Article 50 era when politicians and wonks of all stripes would dream up bespoke concepts without any regard for what Brussels would accept, or what is technically, legally, or politically possible. That same comical insularity persists even today.
In the more immediate term, Burnham is looking to open discussions about emissions trading, youth mobility and an SPS deal, which is at least in the realms of the possible. Anything else is likely just a political signal to energise his base.
My hunch is that Burnham is gearing up for an early election while the party still has an unambiguous lead in the polls. Labour has a clear lead and Burnham is popular in his own right, but it can’t last because it never does. In his position, it makes sense to blame the cost of living on Brexit, and having no ideas how to remedy it, making overtures to the EU is good politics as far as his party is concerned. He will not, however, be in a rush to re-open the Brexit wars.
The small fly in the ointment is that politics on the continent is changing, not least in France, and the French have a track record or vetoing any moves that would make it easier for British agri-exporters. Even an SPS deal might be a little too ambitious for the moment. Burnham may need to offer up freedom of movement as a deal sweetener, but that doesn’t play well in Labour heartlands. My feeling is that Burnham, for reasons that escape me, is the one Labour politician who can claw back some of the votes lost to Reform, but any rowback on Brexit would blow it.
Either way, it goes to show that Brexit is still not a settled issue. Nobody is especially content with the limbo we’re in. For the midwit left, our position leaves us isolated, locked out of the joys of job-killing Net Zero regulation, while the right thinks, with some justification, that we never meaningfully left the EU. At some point the current settlement will be revisited because it was never properly concluded. This is certainly the feeling for many at the top of Reform who would go much further than dumping the Windsor Framework, perhaps even collapsing the entire TCA.
Knowing, then, that this is far from settled domestic politics, I don’t imagine anyone in the European Commission is keen to waste technical and political bandwidth on deepening the relationship with the UK only for the next right wing government to rip up any agreements, especially if ECHR withdrawal is taking on a certain inevitability.
This is where neither side of the divide has compelling arguments. Reform (according to Danny Kruger, at least) would seek to revert to WTO rules (something that would be deeply unpopular and politically suicidal, likely causing an omni-crisis) while any re-join effort by Labour doesn’t answer the question of what we are re-joining and on what basis.
Personally, I would actually find another EU referendum gloriously entertaining just because of who the re-joiners will be rubbing shoulders with. The Restore Britain types will be against joining, but the Zoomer nationalists and neo-Nazis will all be in favour, not least because it's an avenue to getting elected to the European Parliament, and subsequently establishing a far right movement in domestic politics. They see it as a means to forge closer relationships with FN, AfD and other European “right wing” populists who are set to dominate EU politics for the foreseeable future.
What re-joiners also have to spell out is why it would be beneficial for Britain when, in the decade since Brexit, Germany heavy industry has been steadily collapsing under the weight of EU climate policies. I suppose Britain is reasonably well insulated in that we’ve already destroyed our heavy industry.
What seems more likely in the interim is a nothing-burger of an EU reset that does nothing whatsoever to help Britain, but will be sold as a resounding victory for Labour. That may have a certain temporary political utility for Burnham, but it doesn’t change the fact that the national grid is teetering on the brink, the cost of living is soaring, and sentiment on immigration remains at boiling point. It’s almost as though this talk of re-joining is a nostalgic battle re-enactment, having no real idea what to do instead.
My feeling, though, is that the EU is as much in limbo as the UK-EU relationship. There is a populist gun to its head - on energy and immigration, while rifts open up over Ukraine. America seems to be losing patience with Zelensky and the EU, and Europe’s economic outlook does not look promising. A series of challenging events is on the horizon, for which Europe’s talentless political class has no answers. European elites have the will to continue the fight with Russia, but not the means, or the backing of their own people. Soon enough, the very last thing on anybody’s mind will be meat export rules and cheese regulations.
Good analysis.
The key takeaway for me is, as you indicate Pete, not so much of what we the UK ( ok, Burnham says or does) is what happens in France and possibly Germany.
In both countries, it's apparent that we've started to ' hear the people sing ' - it's difficult now to keep them quiet especially if M Le Pen does become President - this kind of changes the whole calculus of EU /member state relationships.
Add to this the upcoming HM Treasury whitewash/slop of ' alleged EU benefits, and it becomes glaringly apparent that we realise that we're all on HMS Titanic - we've kept with the same deck chair arrangers and the band played on. Ode to Joy, indeed.