Britain on the brink

I’m politically homeless. There’s no-one I feel wholly enthusiastic about voting for. Later down the line something might emerge, but the right has a reinvention process ahead of it. There’s a few right wing thinkers around who seem to get it - that the entire system of governance needs a reboot, and that national democracy must reassert itself over the “international rules based order”.

I actually think the tides of history are carrying us in that direction. I trust my instinct on this. One by one, the establishment narratives are collapsing and we’re just waiting for politics to catch up.

It’s been interesting to see how rapidly politicians have revised their fashionable views on transgenderism in the wake of the Cass Review. It will play out much the same way for Net Zero and mass immigration. The penny has dropped that diversity isn’t making us stronger, nor does it grow the economy.

The problem for us is that the politicians are slow learners. For the Tories, these realisations are coming too late in the day, and message hasn’t yet got through to Rishi Sunak. He’s going to lose to Labour, who will also have to learn the lessons the hard way.

Thankfully, even Keir Starmer will have to bend to reality on aspects of Net Zero, and he can’t do much worse than the Tories on immigration. It’s even plausible that he won’t reverse recent Tory changes to immigration policy, and immigration will fall, which will be an entertaining humiliation of the Tories.

Still, though, that will not solve the problem of the mass unchecked garbage immigration of the last few years, the consequences of which are becoming harder to ignore. Immigration as an issue is going to keep grumbling along for the foreseeable future and voters are going to demand ever more stringent measures. We have imported far too many economically useless immigrants who cannot and will not integrate, and there’s nowhere to put them. The centre will not hold.

British voters have yet to make themselves heard on this issue, and it’s likely it will take a while yet since Britain is already used to a multi-ethnic “diverse” society. Not so Ireland though. Ireland is erupting in protest at the highly noticeable and unsustainable levels of third world immigration. The protests are now quite large and will only get bigger. Ireland is putting its foot down. It will inspire similar movements here in Britain.

We are likely to see similar outbreaks of disquiet in Europe, particularly as the pro-Palestine mobs echo events of the 1930s. It will only strengthen the hand of “far right” populist parties ahead of the Euro elections.

This will see joint EU action to strengthen Europe’s borders, and more stringent immigration criteria. But toughened up borders won’t cut it. There is no electoral reward for shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The Overton window will shift toward mass deportations, starting with illegal immigrants and economic migrants masquerading as refugees. Europe is losing its European identity, and the peoples of Europe will not be nearly so supine as their political elites.

What’s curious about all this, is that though Britain was ahead of the curve when it voted for Brexit, it will be the last to wake up to the threats. The way in which Islamists have donned our political parties as a skinsuit has not yet fully registered with the political class, nor have they woken up to the disproportionate power of the Muslim block vote. If true to form, the establishment will bury their heads in the sand.

I can only speculate as to why this differential exists, but one notices that on the continent there are far more female voices on the “far right”. Women in Europe are realising that third world garbage immigration is a direct threat to their safety. That’s when fringe politics starts to pick up steam.

You might have thought that the grooming scandal issue would have had an impact on British party politics, but that pertains to legacy immigration rather than a new influx. What European women are experiencing is down to immigration since Merkel proclaimed “Wir schaffen das”. Britain will be slower to catch on.

Eventually, though, we are going to have to act. We are going to have to limit the availability of benefits. Not only will be have to address the pull factors, we’re going to need an environment hostile to low IQ, low skill immigrants that encourages them to leave.

As yet, there are no parties willing to say the unsayable. Suella Braverman’s critiques of multiculturalism stop short of anything radical, and even the Reform Party has a pretty timid approach to immigration. I suspect, though, they will all catch up to public opinion when it’s politically safe to break ranks.

I base this assessment on what I see on X and Facebook. The footage we’re seeing on a daily basis cannot be obfuscated away. The usual dogmatic multiculturalist slogans are now beyond satire. What we’re seeing is not normal. It’s getting worse. And the authorities are quite obviously more concerned with hushing it up than confronting it. This isn’t going to fly.

What will likely accelerate a change in mood is five or more years of Labour. The one upside to an incoming Labour government is that we’re going to see just how ineffectual the left’s solutions to the immigration crisis really are. Keir Starmer thinks it’s just a matter of greater international cooperation, and speeding up asylum claims. He can do all this but he can’t stop the boats, and rapid asylum approvals only shunts the problem to local authorities which don’t have the means to support them.

If we then find local authorities echoing those in Ireland by procuring new housing for immigration cheats, that’s when we’ll see the beginnings of open revolt. Irish citizens have put their rulers on notice by threatening to burn down any building earmarked for migrants. Given the treatment given to ULEZ cameras in London, it’s reasonable to assume the same kind of direct action. By the end of a Labour term, few will be in any doubt that we must quit the Refugee Convention and the ECHR.

It’s too early to say how the Tory party will reconstitute itself, but it’s fair to say that the liberal internationalist wing is living on borrowed time, and that immigration is the defining issue of our era. If the Tories can turn Braverman’s rhetoric into tangible policy, there’s a way back for them. Even Liz Truss seems to get it that if the country wants conservative policies then it will have to dismantle and reverse engineer the Blair revolution. If she can grasp it, maybe her party can too.

Anxieties about immigration usually coincide with economic stress and declining living standards. Probably the high point of race relations in my lifetime was circa 2007 when cash was abundant, and the debt economy was booming. But there is no return to that, and there is nothing in the Labour manifesto that will see us return to prosperity. Ed Miliband’s Net Zero fanaticism will kill off any residual economic vibrancy. Consequently, the social fabric is set to deteriorate further.

What certainly isn’t helping is the ineffectual police force. It already runs from a confrontation where there is a risk of being branded institutionally racist, and we can be assured that Labour will bend to the demands of the race relations industry. Thus we will see more of the same two-tier policing that undermines public confidence. The police will struggle to assert their authority on warring tribes of immigrants, and we’ll further surrender control of our cities.

In the round, we have recipe here for low grade civil unrest, violent crime and a collapsing public realm. Exactly the kind of conditions that pave the way for a muscular conservative movement. By then, even the Tory party might have figured it out that centrist liberal policies won’t cut it, and that the door is open for them if they choose to be conservatives. But then you know what they say. You can lead a horse to water…