Back to the grindstone

This Substack thing is not going the way I planned. I intended to publish a minimum of one article a week, but lately it hasn't panned out that way. I've not been very well. And by that, I don't mean poorly. Just not very well in myself. I am deeply depressed by the state of politics, I am sick to death of the politicians and their cynical little games, I am enraged that we're still having to go over the same basic issues, and to be quite honest with you, I'm actually sick of hearing myself talking about it all. For that reason, I've had to take an extended, unplanned break away from it all.

One of the things I try to do with my writing is to distill and summarise. Others to the job of forensic analysis better than I do it, and I think my talent is boiling it all down to the essentials. But once you do that, you're actually dealing with only a handful of points. For example, you can't expect economic prosperity when you’re driving up the cost of energy. You cannot expect to maintain a high trust society with uncontrolled third-world immigration. You cannot govern in the national interest if arbitrary targets and international law take precedence. You cannot funnel every young person through university and expect the system to function.

Lately, I've concentrated on immigration over issues such as Net Zero and the economy because none of it really matters if we don’t get the immigration situation under control. We are beyond managerialist attempts at "encouraging integration" as Kemi Badenough suggests. We are beyond merely deporting foreign criminals as Reform would have it. Only a comprehensive programme of remigration is going to get close to fixing the problems.

I've written at length on all these issues and now I struggle to say anything new about them. I know that repetition is part of the job of campaigning, but it occurred to me recently that I've spent more time over the last decade doing this sort of thing than computer programming which is notionally my main career. It's entirely forgivable to be completely worn out. I'm not just writing articles, I'm battering away on X on a daily basis, and with the exception of the last three or four weeks, I've been writing at least one longform post every day since Elon Musk took over. Lately I concluded that I don’t have writer's block. I have something more akin to PTSD.

As it happens, I’m quite prone to black dog depression spells around this time of year. It's a shame because I really wanted to do one of those end of year round-ups, if only to thank my many readers and supporters. 2024 was a busy year for me, with several exhausting trips to London, and countless podcast appearances. It was also a year of hard work. The manifesto project was something of an achievement, if only to demonstrate that it could be done. There’s a long list of people to thank for their input and support. I wouldn’t list them at risk of forgetting someone and offending them, but you know who you are.

As to what the new year will bring, it’s anybody’s guess. My new year’s resolution was to give up on predictions. I can at least offer some cheerful news that, as bad as Labour are, this will likely be the last time Labour is ever in power. The Tories were wrecked by their own ineptitude and indifference and soon it will be Labour’s turn to face demolition at the ballot box.

It now seems likely that Reform will be the beneficiary of a general collapse of confidence in the establishment parties. I’m not entirely sure what good it will do. If the right wing vote is split evenly between Reform and the Tories, it would suggest some kind of merger is on the cards, but with Reform recruiting deadbeat Tories with no vetting and no quality control, there’s every chance we could end up back where we started, with a dysfunctional coalition that can’t agree on a way forward.

What we can say with some certainty is that overall satisfaction with politicians is going to keep tanking. The grooming gang issue is not going away, and the dinghies will keep coming, setting new records each year. Meanwhile the Overton Window is travelling ever further to the right. Voters are not going to warm to Badenoch’s half measures, and the radical right are not going to put up with Farage’s prevarication. We are heading for a political crisis that makes Brexit look like a walk in the park.

What I am seeing now is more expectation management from Reform supporters. Many are now seeing the flaws clear as day, but still see Reform as a means to break the grip of the uniparty. That may be a useful end in itself, but it’s very far from a resolution. Even an outright Reform victory wouldn’t settle anything. There is simply too much bad blood about.

The thing is, it’s not just me who’s politically depressed. It’s at least half or most of the country by now. We’re now at the giving Gerry Adams compensation stage of decline, and I don’t see people putting up with insult after insult. Pretty much every core demographic is fed up, overstretched, demoralised and tired. It didn’t take much last year to spark a week of rioting, and I won’t be at all surprised to see a repeat performance every summer for the foreseeable future. Riots and mass protest could well be a fixture in our politics now. I’m pretty certain that soon it won’t be safe for any MP to walk the streets unescorted.

Maybe things will start to look different as Donald Trump beds in, and maybe politics will get spicy in Germany and France, leaving Britain out on its own. Either way, four years is a long time for an electorate to be at boiling point. Depression, as I know all too well, can easily turn to rage. After which, all bets are off. In any case, it simply won’t do for me to slack off. Normal service resumes today.