A suboptimal predicament

For many years now, I’ve operated a policy of staying out of American politics. Regardless of how much of their media we’re exposed to, if you’re not there, you’re not getting the full picture, and the social media algorithms can often leave out important details leaving us with a distorted picture. Moreover, the propensity of the British right to fixate on American politics often comes at the cost of neglecting our own.

For the past couple of weeks, though, I’ve broken that rule. I think events in Minnesota have direct relevance to the UK debate around immigration, and the insurrectionist behaviour of the left demands further study. The conditions on the ground could very easily tilt into low grade civil war. So yes, I’ve made a total hypocrite of myself lately.

I have learned, however, why American politics is so attractive to the online right. Put simply, in social media engagement terms, it’s quite lucrative. You not only get your British audience but you also start sucking in American attention. This probably explains outfits like Lotus Eaters, who probably realise what the early British blogosphere understood. There simply isn’t enough of a vibrant UK debate to sustain a full time UK-focussed operation.

This, unfortunately, forces British pundits to chose between making a living and fighting the good fight. You can, of course, do both, but only if you have a stratospheric social media following. Which I don’t.

That said, I have found it a welcome change of pace. I’ve been writing about the Tory/Reform psychodrama for quite a long time now, and my observations are no longer on the outspoke fringe. With Reform accepting virtually anyone, the party is building in all of the same ideological and structural problems that brought down the Tories. Reform is shaping up to be a repeat of the Johnson administration - a broad church with all the momentum but no policy, and no sense of direction - that will produce similar results.

Beyond that, I don’t feel the need to give a running commentary on the soap opera. All that’s left now is the slow motion suicide of the Tory party - which few will lament. You can see why the antics of the Great Orange One are far more entertaining for pundits.

This, year, though, could be the year when the Ukraine war comes back into sharp focus. The war is now a bitter war of attrition, where the battlefield is virtually off limits to armour, and we’re seeing a hybrid of high and low tech tactics of traditional trench warfare and 3d chess with drones. With neither side having the manpower to make major advances, the war is now a quagmire that sees Putin resorting to missile bombardment - meaning all of Ukraine is now the front line.

This has always been a question of how long the combatants can hold out. Ukraine’s resolve shows no sign of wavering and despite souring US relations, the weapons are still flowing into Ukraine - while Russia is ever more desperate and is cannibalising its own economy and population to keep the war rolling. Putin is reaching the limits of his credibility and authority - which could lead to more desperate and dangerous action from Russia.

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime creeps ever closer to collapse, with or without US intervention. Iranian society itself is close to collapse due to energy and water shortages that could cause a regional war in the next few years, sucking in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey. Any presumption on the part of the West that Iran will peacefully transition into a liberal democracy is about as misplaced as our estimations about Iraq. Not forgetting that Iran is also staring down the barrel of a financial collapse and full-blown banking crisis.

What makes matters even more interesting is the apparent decline of China. China is also facing acute energy shortages while the property and construction bubbles are imploding at pace. Western divestment is going to hurt. The theme seems to be that while the West is weak, its enemies are weaker. It seems that we are heading for a protracted period of global instability.

Closer to home the EU fate looks far less certain that ever. The populist right wing parties are inching closer to power, and Trump’s trade wars are exposing the deep structural problems in the European economies. This is likely to be exacerbated by yet more migration from the Horn of Africa. Immigration as an issue is not going away.

Considering all of the above, this point to perhaps the greatest crisis of all for Britain. With multiple crises on multiple fronts, Britain is not prepared politically or intellectually for the great disintegration on the horizon. Never before have we had such low calibre politicians and low quality media.

Depressingly, we’re still three years from a general election while Ed Miliband is still committed to dismantling our domestic energy system, and the PM is handing strategic military bases to China. Then, just as we need to re-arm, we find the army’s latest armoured vehicle is more likely to put our own troops in hospital. Though nobody can dispute that a Reform government couldn’t possibly be worse, the challenges on the horizon would swamp even a competent government. To be anywhere close to prepared, we needed to have taken much better decisions twenty years ago. I think we might be in trouble.